
Gold in yen has outperformed gold in dollars, but it all comes down to foreign exchange rates.
Renowned investor Dennis Gartman recently said that his favorite commodity trade of 2014 is gold—but with a twist. As he has done a few times over the past year, Gartman made the case for owning gold in yen, arguing that the Bank of Japan’s monumental efforts to jump-start economic growth and inflation by doubling the size of its balance sheet was bullish for the yellow metal denominated in the Japanese currency.
Gartman’s argument certainly is compelling. Gold in yen has handily outperformed its dollar-denominated counterpart in recent months and years. In 2013, for example, gold in yen was down by only 12.5 percent, while gold in dollars fell by 29 percent.
Over the past five years, gold in yen has rallied nearly 80 percent, while gold in dollars rallied 55 percent.
That said, ultimately, if one makes the case for owning gold in yen (as a U.S. investor), one is making the case of continued devaluation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar; because if there is no change in the exchange rate, gold in either currency will perform exactly the same.
Thus, Gartman’s favorite commodity trade of 2014 is as much a play on foreign exchange as it is a play on gold itself.