And why it is not the one everybody is expecting.

The consensus is usually wrong among financial analysts, so it is a fairly safe bet that the most likely future scenario for Federal Reserve policy will not be the one that everybody is expecting.

Right now Fed chair Dr. Yellen has us on course for a gradual wind-up of the QE money program by this autumn and a steady rise in interest rates as the US economy recovers up to full speed and only then will interest rates get back to their long-run averages. It’s a rosy scenario that has investors switching from bonds to equities to participate in the coming boom.

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