Todd Market Forecast for 3:00 Pacific Thursday October 19, 2017
DOW + 5 on 9 net advances
NASDAQ COMP – 19 on 419 net Declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish
STOCKS: Some negative news from Europe and some downbeat earnings hit an overbought market and the result was a sharp decline at the opening with the Dow down 104 points.
However, like so many times before, the decline was soon halted and the remainder of the session saw buying come in. This market is like a ball being pushed under water. It keeps popping back up.
This is even more remarkable given the fact that this is October, the month of so many sharp drops in previous years.
Perhaps the memory of the sharpest one day drop in history exactly 30 years ago played a bit part in this drama in the very early going.
But our task is simple. We’re going to keep riding this horse ’till if gives out. We’ll stay with our positions.
GOLD: Gold was up $3. Just a small move without consequence. At least for now.
CHART: The S&P reversed and maintained its bullish posture. These kinds of reversals tend to be bullish more often than not.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a buy.
System 7 We are long the SSO from 95.27. Keep your stop at 98.77.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
System 9 We are in cash.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Jobless claims were 222,000, less than the expected 240,000. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey was 27.9, better than the consensus 20.2. On Friday we get existing home sales.
INTERESTING STUFF: “Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.”Albert Einstein
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto gained 36.
BONDS: The bond market rebounded somewhat.
THE REST: The dollar lost ground. Crude oil was basically unchanged.
Bonds –Bullish as of October 12.
U.S. dollar – Bearish as of October 10.
Euro — Bullish as of October 10.
Gold —-Bearish as of October 17.
Silver—- Bearish as of October 17.
Crude oil —-Bullish as of October 10.
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish as of September 20, 2017.
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
