Market pundits seem to have strong opinions about how fast or slow the economic recovery will be once it starts. Such clairvoyance is stunning given the uncertainty of the current GDP forecast, which is already two-thirds in the books.

If the world’s leading economists cannot come to any consensus about today, why should we assume anyone has clarity for tomorrow? 

We do not have great clarity either, but we can provide guidance using what we know about the past and present. Our logic presented here is grounded in optimistic assumptions and historical data. The result is an outcome that is well below the hope-based forecasts of most economists.

Quite frankly, what we present today may be the best possible scenario. It strays far from the popular narrative but deserves serious consideration… CLICK for complete article