Although physical real estate prices in Canada are wafting about on currents of blind enthusiasm, bond traders are pushing up rates and equity traders are selling housing related issues.
VANCOUVER average single family detached prices in June 2013 ticked up 0.3% M/M but remain 13.6% ($144,900) below their peak set last April 2012 (Vancouver Chart). Vancouver combined residential prices are down 3% Y/Y (Scorecard) on sales zooming up 12.1% Y/Y. Average strata units continue to trade at 2007 prices with a slight uptick in price M/M against dismal sales M/M.
If you are thinking of buying a Vancouver Condo as an Investment, see my Vancouver Condo Yield Case Study and now that you have the June data, where do you think Vancouver SFD prices will be one year hence? VOTE HERE.
CALGARY average detached house and condo prices in June 2013 broke out again to new record highs (Calgary Chart) while strata unit prices turned down at resistance. I have added the TSX Energy Index plot to the chart to see when correlations occur with housing prices but so far the correlation has been negative for the last 2 years (rising real estate prices against falling energy prices). Although there is pricing joy in Calgary, it’s not showing up on the Momentum Chart. What is showing up is a different world of earnings in Alberta compared to the rest of Canada.
The sentiment in Calgary is the least bearish of the 3 markets polled with only 23% of the survey thinking Calgary SFD prices will be 20% lower in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
EDMONTON average detached house prices in June 2013 were turned away at resistance for the second time since March of this year (Canada Chart), while condo and townhouse prices zoomed 10.2% and 3.6% M/M. Where Calgary has positive combined residential sales up 5.2% Y/Y, Edmonton combined were down 5.3% Y/Y (Scorecard). Bidders have yet to break the May 2007 peak SFD price (Plunge-O-Meter) which remains 3.2% below the high.
TORONTO average detached house prices for the GTA in June 2013 could not repeat the trifecta breakout to new highs set last month (Toronto Chart) and combined residential prices slumped 2% M/M. For anyone keeping score, the gap between Vancouver and Toronto housing prices (Vancouver vs Toronto) widened with Vancouver’s price uptick. The marketing strategy in the GTA may have to appeal to the HNWI who have fallen in love with Toronto; perhaps as “safe” haven but certainly not as investment grade.
Never mind the wall of worry, polled sentiment here continues to suggest that prices will be down another 20% in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
OTTAWA average detached house prices are not available, instead the chart on this site reflects Ottawa’s average combined residential prices. OREB’s report is sparse and opaque and the CMHC, records for Ottawa inventory remain one month lagging. In June 2013 Ottawa combined residential prices slumped 3% M/M after hitting a high 2 months ago (Scorecard). Sales plunged 11.6% M/M and are down 4% Y/Y.
MONTREAL median (not average) detached house prices in May 2013 (I WILL UPDATE WHEN I GET THE JUNE DATA WHICH IS ALWAYS A WEEK LATE) zoomed to a new record high replacing the last high set in June 2012 (Canada Chart). New pricing is happening on ever decreasing sales and thinning participants with combined residential sales down 9% Y/Y and condo sales down 12.4% Y/Y (Scorecard). In the 2011 Census, Montreal added 6.4% more dwelling units while only adding 5.2% more people. There is no shortage of housing, but there is a shortage of earnings; the Province of Quebec ranks 7th in Canada’s 10 provinces for earnings and prints an unemployment rate of 7.8% in April; 0.1% above Ontario’s.
