I am not screaming from the rooftops, “Buy gold!”
The reason is simple: I am not 100 percent confident that the bottom is in.
Why is that, especially when all is not well with the world?
After all, in addition to the Syrian crisis, which is not over, tensions are rising dramatically between the United States and Russia.
North Korea is reactivating its plutonium reactor. The Fed, even if it tapers its bond buying this week, is still printing oodles of money. The budget ceiling war is about to go into overdrive and heated debate again.
And interest rates are rising, a sure-fire sign that inflation will be coming back.
My answer is simple: It’s not yet time for gold and silver to take off to the upside. Quite the contrary, they have more work to do on the downside.
Look, every market has its time and place in the sun. That’s why timing is so critically important. You can be 100 percent right on the direction of a market, but you will not make money if you don’t get your timing right.
The pause in gold and silver’s long-term
bull markets is not yet over.
In contrast to important tops in any market, important bottoms take time to complete. That’s especially true with the precious metals.
Gold and silver have backing and filling to do. They have a lot of investors they still need to chew up and spit out. They will not bottom until most investors have turned outright bearish on them.
That’s one of the reasons why gold and silver took a nice nose-dive last week, precisely in accordance with what my cycle work was telling me. You can see the forecasted decline in this chart I’ve shown you previously.
And according to all of my indicators, as I have mentioned before, gold and silver needed a one- to three-year correction from their 2011 highs.
So far, we have a two-year correction in place. And so far, gold, which is my barometer for both metals, has fallen to as low as $1,178.
But importantly, that low did not precisely hit long-term support levels, which stood a bit lower at the $1,150 level.
For a market to bottom, it must hit long-term support at the right time. When price and time converge together, you have an important bottom. And though gold came very close to doing that in June, it was not close enough.
There are two more cyclical time
targets for a bottom in gold.
One is this month, shown by the cyclical chart above. If gold can break the June $1,178 low by October 3, at the latest, I will be screaming from the rooftops that the bottom is in place.
But if gold does not break the $1,178 low by October 3, we’re not likely to see the bottoming process in the precious metals end until January of next year.
That’s the next major cyclical target for a low in the precious metals ― January 2014.
So there are three scenarios ahead for gold (and silver):
Scenario #1: Gold declines to below $1,178 by October 3. If so, the bottom will be in place.
Scenario #2: Gold declines but does not break $1,178 by October 3. Then expect a brief bounce but largely a sideways trading range for the precious metals heading into year end.
And then, a sharp decline into January, with gold finally breaking the $1,178 low and bottoming once and for all.
Scenario #3: Gold somehow miraculously explodes higher and closes above $1,605.50. If gold were to do that — at any time — then we would have confirmation that the June low at $1,178 will hold and was the final bottom.
This third scenario is extremely unlikely. Far more likely is that we will see a major new low in gold either by October 3, or by the end of January.
And then, both gold and silver will be off to the races. No matter what, I do not see gold’s bear market extending beyond January 2014.
This should not surprise you. I have said all along that gold’s pause could take up to three years.
As to mining shares, as long as they hold their August lows, there is a very high possibility that mining shares have already bottomed, way in advance of gold.
So be patient and follow my signals.
For my Real Wealth Report members, those signals are optimized to average down in the precious metals and mining shares, to capitalize on their longer-term bull markets.
For members of my trading services, my signals are designed to capitalize on the short-term moves in gold, silver and mining shares, either up or down.
For members of my Hard Asset Trader, my signals are exclusively long-term in nature, for physical purchases of precious metals, and will largely be using an average-down approach.
Best wishes,
Larry
See more at: http://www.swingtradingdaily.com/2013/09/16/a-few-things-need-to-happen-before-gold-rallies/#sthash.cFIQv5x0.dpuf
