A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

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Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over eight years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes.

Let’s examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between uptrends and downtrends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).

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