Asset protection

The Flash Crash Cycle is Coming

The May 6 2010 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I first discovered a 360 Trading Day (TD, Gann’s 360 degrees) cycle and posted it on my public blog, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash Crash (FC) cycle of Lows. 

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows.At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.

The dominant Flash Crash 360 TD / 75 week Cycle:

(Click on image to enlarge)

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04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks

04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks

04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks

04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks

04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks

04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks

04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks

04/14/00L – June 2017 = 12 X 360.00 TD

04/14/00L –  July 2017 = 12 X 75 weeks

(Click on image to enlarge)

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The Flash Crash Lows were preceded by an average 18% decline:

  1. 04/14/00 Crash Low saw a 213.57 SP decline,   a 14% decline.
  2. 09/21/01 Crash Low saw a 371.18 SP decline,   a 28% decline.
  3. 03/12/13 major Low saw a 165.38 SP decline,  a 17% decline
  4. 08/13/04 major Low saw a 102.51 SP decline,    a  9% decline.
  5. 11/21/08 Crash Low saw a 699.36 SP decline,   a 49% decline
  6. 05/06/10 Flash Crash saw a 139.34 SP decline, a 12% decline
  7. 10/04/11 Crash Low saw a 295.81 SP decline,  a 22% decline.
  8. 01/20/16 Crash Low saw a 322.43 SP decline,  a 15% decline. 

The exact 360 Trading Day cycle has deviated by only 2 to 8 TD:

04/14/00L +360 TD X 1 = 09/21/01 Crash Low, + 2 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 2 = 03/12/03 Major Low, – 7 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 3 = 08/13/04 Major Low, – 6 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 6 = 11/21/08 Crash Low, – 4 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 7 = 05/06/10 Flash Crash, – 8 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 8 = 10/04/11 Crash Low, – 5 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 11 = 01/20/16 Crash Low, – 4 TD

Swing High before the Flash Crash Low

03/24/00H – 04/14/00L = 021 CD / 0.7 Months
05/22/01H – 09/21/01L = 122 CD / 4.0 months
12/02/02H – 03/12/03L = 100 CD / 3.3 months
06/24/04H – 08/13/04L = 050 CD / 1.7 Months
08/11/08H – 11/21/08L = 102 CD / 3.4 Months
04/26/10H – 07/01/10L = 066 CD / 2.2 Months
07/07/11H – 10/04/11L = 089 CD / 2.9 Months
11/03/15H – 01/20/16L = 078 CD / 2.6 Months

The declines from the swing High to the Flash crash Lows have averaged 78.5 CD or 2.6 Months +/-. The majority has varied from 2.2–3.4 months. This means we should top out an average of 2 ½months before the projected June-July Flash Crash Lows.

The Biblical 7 year Cycle and the 360 TD Flash crash Cycle

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-biblical-7-year-cycle-and-360-td.html

Forecasted on 12/17/14 (see link above):

“The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD (Trading Days) from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.”

5 X 360 TD Flash Crash cycle is the 1800 TD cycle, which is the well known 7 year Biblical cycle, which suggested a sharp decline in January 2016, being 7 years/1800 TD, from the 11/21/08 Crash Lows, which was 7 years/1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Lows. The 1800 TD Cycle varies between 1790 and 1805 TD.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:

1. 10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD
2. 08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
3. 03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
4. 03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
5. 09/21/01L – 11/21/08L = 1805 TD
6. 09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
7. 08/11/08H – 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
8. 11/21/08L – 01/20/16L = 1800 TD

Conclusion: The Flash Crash Cycle of Lows pinpointed 8 major crash Lows, in the past 17 years, with an 18% average decline and has deviated maximum 2-8 TD from its exact 360 TD cycle. It has a 67% chance of seeing a decline into it. The 1800 TD/ 7 Year Cycle is 5 X 360 TD cycle, which has also has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past, including the recent 1/20/16 Low. If we are going to see a Flash Crash we should see a major swing High about 2 ½ months before we see a sharp 18% decline into the June-July Flash Crash Lows. That means we should top out in April or even as early as today’s 3/30-31 cycle High. You won’t want to miss the upcoming decline. Be forewarned and be prepared.

 

 

Disclaimer: Trading in Stocks, ETF, Options and Futures involve risks. Trade at your own Risk. Do your own homework. The contents of this blog are for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment advice strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


Marc Faber : China Economy Melting Down

Marc Faber says the World Economy Grinding to a Halt and strongly advises to not Trade With Leverage. Still people are buying stocks with no earnings. They aren’t buying value, they are buying because stocks are expected to move higher. In other words,  “a Mania”

 

…also from Marc: Trump will soon be begging the Fed for QE4

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Brexit: It’s Now Reality

Screen Shot 2017-03-28 at 7.12.31 AMIt’s been nine months since Britain stunned the world by voting to leave the European Union.

After decades of accepting the European Union’s burdensome regulations – one after another – the British people finally said enough is enough.

Now, the EU’s days of stifling the economic growth of Britain – and other countries that joined the union but not the currency – are finally coming to an end.

Last week, Britain moved one step closer to taking back its sovereignty, and escaping the burdensome regulations of the EU, when it was announced that Prime Minister Theresa May plans to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on Wednesday, March 29.

Article 50 is the mechanism for quitting the European Union, thus launching a chess match: Pitting the U.K.’s desire for a trade deal – while regaining power over immigration and lawmaking – against the EU’s view that Britain must not benefit from Brexit.

Britain is the world’s sixth-largest economy, and it’s been more than 40 years since the U.K. joined the European Union. So this separation won’t be a piece of cake.

In fact, the U.K. will have to pay a bill of about $62 billion when it leaves the European Union, warned Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch. While Britain prepares to start Brexit negotiations, the EU has already been tallying the U.K.’s share of liabilities such as pensions for EU officials, infrastructure projects, and the bailout of Ireland.

I don’t know about you, but $62 billion is a heck of a divorce settlement!

Once Article 50 is invoked, the two sides have two years to come to terms on a trade deal.

And a lot can happen in two years.

In fact, if the negotiations collapse, May says she’ll walk away without a new commercial framework in place rather than accept a bad deal. All this makes the likelihood of a disruptive breakup “troublingly high.”

Brexit is just the beginning

The EU is already on borrowed time, same goes for the euro.

And the U.K.’s exit is just the beginning. There are still plenty more disruptions looming …

==> The elections in France – along with right-winged political rhetoric gaining strength in other countries across the eurozone – has the EU on life support.

==> And don’t forget about the debt problems: Once again, the Greek government is set to run out of money. In a few months, it will need a fresh bailout from the EU and the International Monetary Fund. After nine years of trying to fix Greece, the situation has only gotten worse. Even if the Greeks do end up with another bailout, it will only be another stay of execution.

==> The EU also has an identity crisis – and it’s not just the refugee crisis causing the divide. There is also a political bias between the Northern and Southern European countries. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem recently inflamed the hostilities by making insulting remarks about Southern European culture. The remarks provoked former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to demand Dijsselbloem’s resignation as president of the Eurogroup, a coalition of eurozone finance ministers.

Bottom Line: The Brexit fiasco is finally coming home to roost. And that’s going to continue to wreak havoc on the European Union. Mark my words: There will be pitfalls ahead for investors who don’t know what they’re doing. Do you?

Good investing,

Mike Burnick

Russian Roulette, Central Banks, and Gold

Screen Shot 2017-03-24 at 9.22.08 AMGrab your ultra-reliable 357 magnum revolver and load the cylinder with six, not one, rounds of ammunition. Point the gun at your head if you are a member of the struggling middle-class. Imagine pulling the trigger and hoping …
 
Do You Feel Lucky?

The Six Loads of Ammunition for your 357 revolver are:

#1: Central banks and commercial banks exert a huge influence over all aspects of our financial lives. Paper currencies issued by central banks, digital currency units, credit card debt, pension funds, retirement accounts, checking accounts, Quantitative Easing, bond monetization, congress, regulators, Presidents, and the list goes on. Their game, their rules, your losses, and more of the same.

#2: Derivatives are used to “manage” markets, exercise control via futures markets over prices for physical and paper assets, increase leverage and enhance profits for the banks. Each derivative includes a commission – it is not a “zero-sum” game. Banks and CEO bonuses win.

#3: Debt, debt, and much more debt. Deficit spending increases debt, and governments run deficits. Interest is paid by individuals, corporations, and governments. Global debt of $200 trillion will require inflation, hyper-inflation or default. How long can government expenditures increase much more rapidly than revenues? Answer: As long as our current “Ponzi” finance can continue. How long can a Ponzi scheme last? Answer: Not forever. A default or hyper-inflation will occur, sooner rather than later. Fiat currencies will devalue.

#4: Near zero interest rates, negative interest rates, and financial repression. If central banks lower the interest paid on bonds and investments, pension plans and savers are penalized. Debtors, including governments, banks, and large corporations benefit. Your government plan and corporate pension plan are increasingly insolvent. Interest earnings are nearly zero. “High yield” checking accounts pay 0.01% interest. Your savings are depleted, and you may outlive your retirement assets. Welcome to the world of NIRP, ZIRP and financial repression that transfers assets and revenue from you to the banks, courtesy of central bank policies.

#5: High Frequency Trading or HFT is legalized skimming. Ultra-fast computers, PhD mathematics and software have replaced human traders. The result is consistent and profitable trading for the big financial institutions. Per zerohedgeJP Morgan’s in-house trading group has been unprofitable on only two days in the past four years. Average trading revenues were $80 million per day for 2016. Someone contributed heavily to the JP Morgan casino winnings.

#6: Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Jail. If central banks and the five largest commercial banks contribute to congressional elections, and Presidents fill their key positions with executives from the financial industries, and regulators work for them, what is the likely result? If a few large commercial banks are too big to fail, the government and taxpayers must … and you know the drill. More debt, more influence, more derivatives, and a successful business model that benefits the wealthy far more than the middle class.

Review:

Your revolver is loaded with six rounds of ammunition, any of which can blast a hole in your net worth and financial security. The central bank loads are:

  • Their rules, their game.
  • Derivatives.
  • Debt, lots of unpayable debt.
  • Near zero interest paid on your savings as currencies are devalued.
  • HFT skims from many markets for banker profits.
  • Too big to fail. Bail-outs, bail-ins, taxpayer assistance, and bonus checks. (Google “bail-ins.”)

One, two, three … pull the trigger!

ALTERNATE CHOICES:

Instead of playing a guaranteed to fail game of Russian roulette with your financial security, consider a return to the basics:

  • Use real money – gold and silver – for your savings.
  • Gold has no counter-party risk. Silver has no counter-party risk. Most or all “paper” and debt based assets depend upon counter-parties. 
  • Minimize debt and reduce your “debt footprint.”
  • Reconsider your investments in bonds, stocks, ever-increasing debt, devaluing currency units, minimal interest paid on savings, counter-party risk and trust in your friendly central bankers.

CONCLUSIONS:

  • Be cautious when playing Central Banker Russian Roulette with your savings and retirement funds. The stock market crash of 1987, the LTCM crash of 1998, the NASDAQ crash of 2000, and the global financial crisis of 2008 warned us about counter-party risk, excess debt and trusting Wall Street.
  • Trust gold and silver more, and use fewer paper investments.

Read: “Banks” from Peak Prosperity

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

Frightening Shifts in European Politics Keeps Disaster in Focus

Headlines are a buzz with this week’s French presidential debate where candidate Emmanuel Macron came out on top. 

Market sentiment improved, evidenced by gains in the Euro currency and a narrowing yield differential between French and German government bonds.

This also follows last week’s election in the Netherlands where voters denied far-right populist candidate Geert Wilders in favor of liberal conservative Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Because of these events, current European leadership hopes to avoid another Brexit or U.S. election outcome. 

But, the European train wreck is not over by any stretch. Take a look …

F-Britian-Investor-1UKHow’d we get here?

Years of aggressive financial risk-taking, overspending and burgeoning debts led to financial panic, bailouts and rising social unrest.

Between 2014 and 2016, the euro sank fast, taking much of Europe down with it. The trillion-dollar bailouts and money-printing operations engineered by Europe’s strongest economies only made the situation worse.

And volatile political conditions are fueling extreme right-wing movements that pushed the political landscape further to the right.

Consider recent headlines …

  • Energized populist movement fueling fascism, with some going as far as “embracing World War II era policies.”

  • Neo-fascists winning regional offices in Slovakia.

  • Turkish President Erdogan referring to European leaders as Nazi’s.

With several political elections across Europe in the coming months, many strongmen choose to ramp up nationalist rhetoric.

This too will not end well.

 

Consider the French election, where Marine Le Pen broadens her appeal and puts a presidential victory in reach. 

While support for far-right populist candidate Le Pen may be ticking lower, so was Donald Trump’s going into the November 2016 election.

It’s too early to say if the populist tide may turn away from the Brexit movement. But it doesn’t matter. 

Reforms across the euro zone are needed right now to restore confidence. But that’s going to be a tough row to hoe, especially with so many deep-rooted beliefs over what should be done. Here are just a few:

  • Common market underpinned by substantial subsidies for poorer countries.

  • Direction on immigration.

  • Managing very different growth rates across the European Union.

And don’t forget the lingering debt load that has Europe drifting closer to a sovereign debt crisis. 

The fact is, Europe is splintering and going bust. 

And as the final shoe drops, there will be massive capital flight into safe-havens such as U.S. stocks and AAA Corporate debt.

Like Larry said: Prepare for a five-year roller coaster ride through hell.

The best way to do this is to buy blue-chip U.S. stocks on pullbacks and buy gold when the signal comes — I’ll tell you when. 

Good Investing, 

Mike Burnick

….also:

Fanaticism, Stock Market Crash 2017 or Continuation of Bull Market