Bonds & Interest Rates
Turmoil in emerging markets and a month of disappointing job growth at home are unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from trimming its bond-buying stimulus on Wednesday, as Ben Bernanke wraps up his last policy meeting at the helm of the U.S. central bank.
Overall signs of improvement in the U.S. economy suggest Fed officials will stay on track to cut monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each, bringing the total of their monthly asset purchases to $65 billion.
It started by trimming its monthly purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, and on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank is expected to shave another $10 billion.
“It’s clear the Fed wants to taper,” said Eric Stein, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance in Boston.
Even so, the Fed is nowhere near to making a decision to raise rates. Policymakers are expected to stick to their promise to keep rates near zero until well after the U.S. unemployment rate, now at 6.7 percent, falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed is set to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST.
….more HERE

For the first time in history, a majority of lawmakers in Congress are millionaires at a time when Americans feel that Congress and those in the “Boomtown” that is Washington, D.C. are becoming more removed from their everyday lives.
According to a Center for Responsive Politics’s analysis of “the personal financial disclosure data from 2012 of the 534 current members,” 268 lawmakers in Congress had an average net worth of at least $1 million. That was up from 257 from the year before.
The Center for Responsive Politics found that the “median net worth for all House members was $896,000 (Democrats averaged $929,000 to Republicans’ $884,000) and, for Senators, $2.5 million.” In the Senate, “the median net worth for Senate Democrats was $1.7 million, down from $2.4 million in 2011; for Republicans: $2.9 million, up from $2.5 million in 2011.” According to the report, “the median for congressional Democrats was $1.04 million and, for Republicans, $1 million.”
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) is the wealthiest lawmaker in Congress with a reported average net worth of $464 million in 2012 and the “least-wealthy member was Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who reported an average net worth of negative $12.1 million.” According to the Center, Valadao is in debt “due to loans for his family’s dairy farm.”
To calculate the net worth of members of Congress, “the Center added together members’ significant assets, such as corporate bonds and stocks, then subtracted major liabilities such as loans, credit card debt and property mortgages.” The average net worth of each lawmaker in Congress can be found here.

Turkey’s central bank raised all its main interest rates at an emergency meeting, resisting political pressure and reversing years of policy, after the lira slid to a record low.
The bank in Ankara raised the benchmark one-week repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent, according to a statement posted on its website at midnight. It also raised the overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, and the overnight borrowing rate to 8 percent from 3.5 percent. The lira extended gains after the announcement, adding 3 percent to 2.18 per dollar at 1 a.m. in Istanbul.
The bank also said that investors should now treat the repo rate as the main indicator, instead of the lending rate. That makes today’s move an effective tightening of between 200 basis points and 400 basis points, according to Neil Shearing at Capital Economics in London.
The bank’s governor, Erdem Basci, is fighting to arrest a currency run that has gained speed as domestic political tensions overlap with global market shifts. He’s also run into pressure from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government to keep rates low to bolster growth.
….read more HERE

Bloomberg reports that ‘My Bank’ – one of Russia’s top 200 lenders by assets – has introduced a complete ban on cash withdrawals until next week.
Via Bloomberg,
Lender has introduced complete ban on cash withdrawals until end of week, news agency reports, citing unidentified person in call center.
Bank spokeswoman declined to comment by phone
My Bank is top 200 lender by assets: Prime
NOTE: Central bank has revoked about 30 banking licenses since July 1 when Elvira Nabiullina succeeded Sergei Ignatiev as governor, compared with three in the firt half of the year

Ten-year and 30-year yields eventually will be much higher. But I bought some 10-year Treasuries when the yield rose to 3%, because in the near term, yields could retreat to 2.5% or 2.2% or even 2%.
The economic recovery is in its fifth year. On March 6, the bull market in stocks will be five years old. That’s long, by historical standards. Sometime this year, the stock market could see a big tumble, as in 1987. Then the long bond will rally and reward Bill Gross.
Its interesting that despite all the money printing bond yields didnt go down, they bottomed out on July 25th 2012 at 1.43 percent of the 10 year. We are now 2.85 percent. We are up substantially. This hasn’t had an impact on stocks yet. Infact it pushed money into the stock market out of the bond market.
But if they 10 years goes to three and half to four percent and the 30 year goes to close to five percent, the mortgage rates go 6 percent, that will hit the economy very hard.
Faber on Zero Interest Rates Policy
“But one thing I wanted to show you and talk about because you said that lower interest rates help people. Well, if money trending helps everybody, then why does not everybody in the whole world always have zero interest rates? And everybody would be rich. You keep on printing money and you don’t need to work here, you don’t need to put on makeup. I could stay in bed the whole day and go drinking in the evenings. So, let’s just print money and be all happy. It doesn’t add up. One thing about the figures you showed: first of all, you live in New York. Do you really think that your cost-of-living increase is a 1.2% per annum? You really believe that? It doesn’t feel like more, it feels like five times more, or even ten times more.”
“Number two, by keeping interest rates at zero percent on the Fed fund rate — i want to emphasize that this is now going on in March of 2014 for five years. It is not something new. For five years this has happened. You penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents, why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?”
About Marc Faber:
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude.
Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, MARC FABER LIMITED which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.
Dr Faber publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletter “The Gloom Boom & Doom Report” report which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books including “ TOMORROW’S GOLD – Asia’s Age of Discovery” which was first published in 2002 and highlights future investment opportunities around the world. “ TOMORROW’S GOLD ” was for several weeks on Amazon’s best seller list and is being translated into Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Thai and German. Dr. Faber is also a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world.
A book on Dr Faber, “RIDING THE MILLENNIAL STORM”, by Nury Vittachi, was published in 1998.
A regular speaker at various investment seminars, Dr Faber is well known for his “contrarian” investment approach.
He is also associated with a variety of funds and is a member of the Board of Directors of numerous companies.
