Bonds & Interest Rates

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know. 

  • Asian markets were all down in overnight trading. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.62%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 1.71%; and the Shanghai, 1.49%. Europe, on the other hand, was slightly up, but U.S. futures were pointing lower.
  • In a rare moment of bipartisanship, Democrats and Republicans agreed on a budget last night, preventing a repeat of October’s government shutdown with weeks to spare. The deal — reached by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — was immediately hailed by both President Obama and Speaker Boehner. The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 “sets discretionary spending levels a little above $1 trillion for the next two years, while repealing and replacing some cuts of sequestration,” our Brett LoGiurato explains. “In fiscal year 2014, spending is set at $1.012 trillion, which sits about halfway between the proposed levels of the House and Senate budgets. Current law under sequestration calls for caps of $967 billion.” The deal still has to pass both chambers by January 15.
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  • It seems we have Obamacare to thank for saving the U.S. economy. As our Joe Weisenthal writes, “Because Obamacare has rolled out terribly, Obama’s approval ratings are in the toilet. This is a very welcome turn of events for the Republican party, which just over a month ago was in the toilet itself approval-wise. Republicans now have a good hand to play going into next November, and the only way they could obviously screw it up is by doing something stupid like shutting down the government again. So it appears that Republicans are content now to just not rock the boat and get to the next election which they hope will be a big one for them thanks to Obamacare.”
  • This budget deal was timely, because at 2:00 p.m. ET the U.S. government will make its monthly budget statement. Economists expect the Treasury to report a budget deficit of $140 billion. Of course, a quiet trend this year has been that the deficit has been shrinking.
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  • German consumer price index (CPI) came in at 0.2% month-over-month and 1.3% year-over-year, meeting analyst expectations. The German economy has continued to outperform its European neighbors. Earlier this month, the country’s manufacturing sector saw its strongest month since the summer of 2011.
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  • On the opposite end of the European spectrum, Greece reported an unemployment rate of 27.4%, up from 27.3% the previous two months. That rate is more than double the Eurozone average.
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  • A lucrative Bitcoin arbitrage opportunity in China has all but disappeared in recent days. “Traders could earn profits by buying bitcoins using dollars on a foreign exchange such as Mt. Gox, reselling them for yuan at the higher price on BTC China, the main local exchange, and finally converting the yuan back to dollars,” reports Reuters’ Gabriel Wildau. “In recent days, however, the spread between bitcoins as priced in yuan and those priced in dollars has disappeared” after the Chinese government released a statement forbidding local banks from dealing with the digital currency.
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  • Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta asked parliament to support his government and back a spate of reforms he said would boost the country out of the economic doldrums. “He promised to rein in the deficit, cut Italy’s towering public debt, the second highest in the euro zone as a proportion of the overall economy, lower taxes on families and companies, reduce unemployment and boost public investment,” Reuters’ James Mackenzie reported. “Privatizations would continue and the government would consider allowing employees to buy shares in the post office and other public companies, he said.”
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  • Costco will report earnings earnings today. Market analysts expect the company to post an EPS of $1.02, up from $0.95 a year ago, and revenue of $25.34 billion on the quarter. Last fiscal year, Costco netted $2.3 billion on membership fees, making up about 75% of its operating income. That huge figure allows the retailer to charge less and tempt customers looking to save money.
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  • Government regulators approved the Volcker rule yesterday, a long-in-the-making measure that limits trading activity — specifically proprietary trading activity — at U.S. banks. Standard & Poor’s estimates that the rule could shave off $10 billion in yearly pretax profit from the eight largest banks. At 953 pages, “Sure a lot of the Volcker rule is highly over-engineered checklists and admonitions that boil down to ‘don’t be dumb,’ and sure there are good theoretical arguments against that sort of regulation, but I don’t know, come on. You shouldn’t be dumb,” wrote Bloomberg’s Matt Levine. “You could do a lot worse than a rule that requires you to think about what you’re doing.”

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The One Topic No One Is Discussing

imagesEarlier, Deutsche Bank’s iconoclast Jim Reid dared to point out the painfully obvious: that something has drastically changed since the Great Financial Crisis (what that “something” is, is clear to all those whose year end bonus does is not contingent on never pointing out the printerphant in the room). This time around, instead of looking back, he looks forward, to the year 2014, and brings up the two questions nobody dares to ask: i) what happens if 2014 is the year when the recession can no longer be delayed, and ii) how will the Fed, already having doubled down on every last “bullet” in its arsenal, use monetary policy to provide a burst of growth when even $85 billion in flow per month is no longer enough…

From Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid

The curveball for 2014 – A US recession

…continue reading HERE

It’s Time to Take Action….

…..Against Washington and Wall Street

 

It’s time to get ready to rebel against Washington and against Wall Street investment bankers who play with your money. I’m dead serious about it.

Why? Because the war cycles — as I’ve told you before — are ramping up in a way that has not happened in at least 100 years.

Mind you, the war cycles — a kind of volatility index that measures the cycles of mass human social unrest — are not something to take lightly.

Chart1-1

Early this year, in January, I told you how they are ramping up and look what happened:

In April of this year, North Korea threatened to nuke the west coast.

Then in April and May, Egypt erupted in social unrest that led to the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi in July.

Then there was the April Boston Marathon bombing.

And just two weeks ago, on the Money and Markets cruise, I showed everyone who attended how the trajectory of the war cycles is pointing to an acceleration in social unrest starting immediately.

Img1-1And what’s happened in the last two weeks alone?

 China has claimed the airspace over the Spratly and Senkaku Islands, setting off a potential major dispute. Washington sent in B-52 bombers and China countered by sending in an aircraft carrier and jet fighters.

The clash isn’t over. China will own that airspace. And its next move — which could come at any time — will be to take sovereignty of the East and South China Sea, of its shipping lanes and the very big oil and gas deposits near the Spratly and Senkaku Islands.

Meanwhile …

 The Ukraine is splitting in two. A civil war is right around the corner, where half the Ukraine sides with Russia and the other half with Europe.

This is a serious situation. And while it may seem like it’s all happening in distant lands and won’t affect you, believe me — it’s coming to the streets of America.

The reasons may be different, and I’ll get to them in a minute, but for the next six years — until the war cycles peak in 2020 — it will be time to batten down the hatches and protect and grow your money like never before.

It will also be time to get ready to join the rebellion against Washington, from the ground up, to get rid of the current form of government, which is as far from what our founding fathers envisioned as can be imagined.

So exactly how will the war cycles show their face in the US of A?

First, the war cycles are international in scope. So while right now we are largely seeing domestic social unrest in many areas of the world, I can assure you that not only are you going to see more of that, but there is also going to be international unrest.

North Korea will act up again. More importantly, the China, Spratly, Senkaku Islands dipute WILL lead to military conflict between Japan, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and yes, the United States WILL get involved. I have no doubt about it.

It may not happen tomorrow, or next month. But I am 100 percent confident that in the months and years ahead that because the war cycles are now ramping up near vertically, they are going to lead to a major war.

Second, there’s a major economic war going on behind the scenes. And you need to know about it TODAY.

Washington is getting ready to confiscate large portions of your wealth. I never thought it would come to this, but it has.

I can see it clearly now. It started in September 2011. That’s when Ben Bernanke announced QEIII, but the money-printing failed to have the desired effect. Gold, instead of soaring, plunged. And it keeps on plunging.

Instead, what started to soar is collectibles and portable wealth such as gold coins … jewelry … diamonds … art work … rare books … rare watches … and more.

Savvy investors are now hoarding their wealth and getting it off the grid as much as possible.

WHY? Because all the money-printing in Europe and the United States is not working.

You see, the money-printing was designed not just to try and bolster the economies of Europe and the U.S. — it was also designed to inflate away Europe’s and Washington’s debt problems by devaluing currencies.

But here’s the catch: Right now, with the exception of the equity markets (for good reason which I’ll explain in a moment), disinflation still rules the day in the U.S. and in Europe, clear cut deflation has the upper hand.

In a nutshell, money-printing is not working to inflate away Washington’s or Brussels’ huge debts. So both governments are now turning AGAINST their citizens and are preparing to outright usurp their wealth to pay off gargantuan mountains of debt.

Just connect the dots:

 Europe has now approved Cyprus-style confiscation of depositor funds should another bank in the euro zone go down the drain.

In addition, from a rock-solid source I have that is behind the scenes in Washington …

– Leaders in Europe and Washington are seriously considering the 10 percent wealth tax that the International Monetary Fund recently proposed as a solution to pay off government debt!

And here’s the real kicker:

– Again, from my rock-solid source, Washington is also seriously considering nationalizing all U.S. retirement accounts and pensions — a confiscation in disguise.

Look, I’m not the paranoid type. I’m not an alarmist or one who sits around conjuring up conspiracies. Far from it.

But when I connect all the dots — from my studies on the war cycles to what’s happening around the world and behind closed doors … and then I factor in what the markets are telling me, what the NSA spying says, what Obamacare and its 16,000 new IRS agents being hired to enforce it means, I come to one and only one conclusion:

The massively indebted governments of Europe and the United States are now gearing up to pay off debts with your money.

That’s why the rich are now starting to hoard and hide their wealth. That’s why most commodities are still in a deflationary mode. After all, you can’t hoard copper, oil, or corn.

It’s why the NSA spying is continuing with no end in sight, and instead, according to recently released Snowden documents, and as reported by CBS News, the agency is collecting nearly five billion phone records each day, including information from cell phones belonging to Americans overseas.

Ironically, this is the reason the stock market is doing well. Equities are considered non-confiscatable. Equities are now becoming safer to own than cash in a bank. Just ask anyone in Europe. Equities also pay a better dividend as well, and carry none of the risks that government debt do.

Equities have done well in the past when the war cycles have turned up, and they are doing the same again today.

So get ready. As the war cycles heat up, the roots of rebellion will grow.

The good news: Ultimately, there will be a home-grown rebellion that throws the bums in Washington — all of them — out on their butts. A new day will come.

A new government more like our founding fathers envisioned will emerge: A better life, better freedom and equality and the pursuit of happiness for all.

But for the next six years it’s going to be hell.

As for gold and other precious metals, their time to shine again will soon be here.

Gold is moving toward a major January low. Silver to a major February low.

Once the lows are in, the precious metals will really shine, for in the end, they are not hedges against inflation, but hedges against governments run amok.

Stay safe and stay tuned,

Larry

 

POSTED BY LARRY EDELSON

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/.

 
 

(Reuters) – China’s annual consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed in November, easing market fears of any imminent policy tightening as authorities meet this week to outline their policy and reform priorities for 2014.

Rising money market rates and bond yields indicate the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is tightening liquidity conditions, to reduce debt levels and contain credit growth, but there is little sign of a sharp turnaround in monetary policy.

Annual consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed to 3 percent in November from an eight-month high of 3.2 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Analysts had expected the inflation rate to hold steady at October’s level.

“Inflation will not be a big problem in the coming months and we expect monetary policy to stay neutral,” said Luo Wenbo, an economist at Xiangcai Securities in Shanghai.

….full article HERE

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — It’s the last-chance saloon for the Federal Reserve if the central bank wants to send a coordinated message to the markets about tapering.

Three Fed speakers are on the docket for Monday. After that, Fed officials stop talking, at least on the record, until after their Dec. 17-18 meeting.

The Fed is facing a decision on whether to begin to scale back its $85 billion-a-month asset-purchase plan. Economists think the recent strong run of economic data,including Friday’s job report, makes it a very close call on whether the Fed starts to taper.