Bonds & Interest Rates

US Bond sentiment worst since 09

yellenGet ready for a disastrous year for U.S. government bonds. That’s the message forecasters on Wall Street are sending.

With Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen poised to raise interest rates in 2015 for the first time in almost a decade, prognosticators are convinced Treasury yields have nowhere to go except up. Their calls for higher yields next year are the most aggressive since 2009, when U.S. debt securities suffered record losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg….

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Janet Yellen’s Christmas Gift to Wall Street

UnknownLast week we learned that the key to a strong economy is not increased production, lower unemployment, or a sound monetary unit. Rather, economic prosperity depends on the type of language used by the central bank in its monetary policy statements. All it took was one word in the Federal Reserve Bank’s press release — that the Fed would be “patient” in raising interest rates to normal levels — and stock markets went wild. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had their best gains in years, with the Dow gaining nearly 800 points from Wednesday to Friday and the S&P gaining almost 100 points to close within a few points of its all-time high.

Just think of how many trillions of dollars of financial activity that occurred solely because of that one new phrase in the Fed’s statement. That so much in our economy hangs on one word uttered by one institution demonstrates not only that far too much power is given to the Federal Reserve, but also how unbalanced the American economy really is.

While the real economy continues to sputter, financial markets reach record highs, thanks in no small part to the Fed’s easy money policies. After six years of zero interest rates, Wall Street has become addicted to easy money. Even the slightest mention of tightening monetary policy, and Wall Street reacts like a heroin addict forced to sober up cold turkey.

While much of the media paid attention to how long interest rates would remain at zero, what they largely ignored is that the Fed is, “maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.” Look at the Fed’s balance sheet and you’ll see that it has purchased $25 billion in mortgage-backed securities since the end of QE3. Annualized, that is $200 billion a year. That may not be as large as QE2 or QE3, but quantitative easing, or as the Fed likes to say “accommodative monetary policy” is far from over.

What gets lost in all the reporting about stock market numbers, unemployment rate figures, and other economic data is the understanding that real wealth results from production of real goods, not from the creation of money out of thin air. The Fed can rig the numbers for a while by turning the monetary spigot on full blast, but the reality is that this is only papering over severe economic problems. Six years after the crisis of 2008, the economy still has not fully recovered, and in many respects is not much better than it was at the turn of the century.

Since 2001, the United States has grown by 38 million people and the working-age population has grown by 23 million people. Yet the economy has only added eight million jobs. Millions of Americans are still unemployed or underemployed, living from paycheck to paycheck, and having to rely on food stamps and other government aid. The Fed’s easy money has produced great profits for Wall Street but it has not helped — and cannot help — Main Street.

An economy that holds its breath every six weeks, looking to parse every single word coming out of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen’s mouth for indications of whether to buy or sell, is an economy that is fundamentally unsound. The Fed needs to stop creating trillions of dollars out of thin air, let Wall Street take its medicine, and allow the corrections that should have taken place in 2001 and 2008 to liquidate the bad debts and malinvestments that permeate the economy. Only then will we see a real economic recovery.

Astonishing Figures Evidence Of A 1930s-Style Depression & The Case for Gold in One Chart

This analysis is assembled to paint a picture of the current Global Financial condition. The first article “These Are Astonishing Figures, Evidence Of A 1930s-Style Depression” can be found HERE or click the chart below  – Editor Money Talks 

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….then there is this:

The Case for Gold in One Chart

The purpose of this paper is not to make the case for investing in precious metals (plenty has already been written on this topic), but rather to lay out the options available to the investors who has made up his mind to do so.

Before going into any great detail, let’s pause for a moment to take a helicopter view of our financial system in order to better understand gold’s position in it. Most people are well aware that gold is a scarce resource but are usually not aware of the sheer volume of other financial products which currently exist. The following chart provides an overview of our financial system and lays the case for gold quite succinctly.

36174 a

36174 bA financial meltdown would see the upper layers of the pyramid being liquidated in a panic that would likely involve the opaque over-the-counter derivatives markets. A few of the world’s largest banks hold the bulk of all derivative contracts, which have notional amounts in the 10s of times their assets and 100s of times their market capitalizations.

Whilst the upper layers evaporate as the market for most IOUs simply stops existing, capital will seek refuge in the “most marketable good” or the most liquid asset further down the pyramid. Many people holding assets located at the top of the pyramid will lose parts of their capital on the way down in the flight to liquid and to less-risky assets. After most of their wealth literally has evaporated, they will finally come to the conclusion that gold is the ultimate store of value.

A look at recent history reminds us of the intrinsic value of paper money, which is the paper that it is printed on. One picture in support of this case is certainly worth a thousand words.

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.” ~ Voltaire

Download the complete paper: How to Own Precious Metals

 

The Fed Meets This Week Dealing With Alarming Bond Bubble

imagesThe Bond Market Bubble is Reaching Epic Proportions

The 10-Year Bond now has a Yield of 2.08% right before the all-important Fed Quarterly Meeting and Press Conference this Wednesday, the 10-Year basically lost 24 basis points in a week, and mind you the week right after the strongest Employment Report (a positive 321,000 jobs added for the month) since the Financial Crisis, capping what has been a remarkable year in added jobs to the US economy, even wages spiked 0.4 % with strong upward employment revisions for the prior months. In short, in a normal functioning Bond Market Yields should be rising with improved economic conditions. Especially in a week with a robust Retail Sales Report up 0.7 % for the month. Bond Yields in the US should be much higher given the strong economic performance for 2014, and the Fed not only exiting QE, but about to start raising rates in 2015.

Too Much Cheap Money Sloshing Around Financial Markets

In short there is just way too much liquidity in the system, and buying of any assets is what follows regardless of price or the fundamentals, and the Bond Market is such a bubble right now that the Fed needs to start pricking it fast before it crashes all at once where everyone tries to get out at the same time, which of course they cannot do. This is where a responsible Fed comes in and prepares the Bond Market for the inevitable Rate Hikes in 2015. (more on this subject Low Rates and QE are Deflationary at the Zero Bound)

Low Gasoline Prices are Inflationary in the Big Picture
 
The latest argument for inflating the bond market bubble has been the drop in oil prices indicating strong deflationary pressures but this is just a poor understanding of economic theory. High oil and gasoline prices are deflationary over the long-term whereas low oil and gasoline prices are stimulative for economic growth, and actually inflationary over the long-term. And I think the Fed economists are sophisticated enough to get this relationship, that in fact lower gasoline prices will add to GDP growth in the coming quarters, and put even more pressures on inflation with a transfer from the bad comps of energy prices year on year, over to other core components as this new found wealth by consumers in the form of a massive tax cut finds its way into other buckets like dining and retail expenditures, all of which have additive effects for the US economy. In short cheaper energy costs are a net positive for the global economy, it leads to more productive and sustainable economic growth. 

Wages Starting to Spike

Watch out for wages, they have been bubbling under the surface for a while, slowly rising underneath everyone`s negative outlook on the subject, and with an ever tightening labor market this is the area to watch for real runaway inflation in the economy. A 0.4 % spike in wages for a month is something to take notice of, for example extrapolate this on an annual basis and 0.4 % adds up real quick to runaway inflation. So expect there might be a slight lag as consumers feel comfortable with the extra money in their pockets but eventually this money finds its way into other spending buckets so there should be a transfer from the energy component to the core inflation reading. 
 
Oil Bubble Bursts, Next Up Bond Markets
It is obvious that there is too much liquidity in the financial system as essentially bonds and stocks are near their all-time highs at the same time, and oil would have been there too if it wasn`t for the fact that 7 years of QE artificially inflated high oil prices motivated a lot of people to start producing oil in the US and around the globe and we finally have an oversupplied oil market and essentially a price war to compete for global market share. The old adage there is no cure for high prices like high prices applies here. And there is no cure for low wages like low wages in a tightening labor market, and this is the inflation boogie man that is currently flying under the radar right now in financial markets. 
 
US Economy Running Hot
 
An economy cannot add this many jobs in a year without market consequences, and so far the bond market has been able to do what it wants which is take advantage of cheap money and chase yield at any price without regards to downside risks. We are already seeing signs of the tightening labor market here in the US as employees are now quitting their jobs to take advantage of better opportunities in the labor market, this is all indicative of higher wages and increased inflation pressures in the economy for 2105. 
 
Much Lower Oil & Much Higher Interest Rates as Lower Oil is Stimulative
The low oil prices means the Fed never raises rates argument is just flawed, look back in history of $30 a barrel oil, the economy wasn`t in a “deflationary death spiral” in fact it was quite robust and interest rates and bond yields were much higher by a large margin than these “Doomsday Recession Era” Rates that we currently have in the massive bond market bubble. 
 
All Bubbles Burst – No Cure for Financial Bubbles like Financial Bubbles
The only reason this bond bubble exists isn`t due to the lower price of oil, it is directly a result of too much cheap liquidity in the financial system and ridiculously low interest rates by central banks. Well the US economy by recent data points with 321,000 jobs created in a month, 0.4% monthly wage inflation, third quarter GDP revised up to 3.9%, Retail Sales Report up 0.7 % and lower gasoline prices adding additional stimulus to the US economy means the Fed will have to raise rates in bunches for 2015, and it is increasingly alarming that the bond market is as unprepared as a market can be going into this rising rate environment for 2015.

 

The Top 10 DividendRank’ed Canadian Stocks

#10. CI Financial Corp (TSE:CIX.CA) — 4.0% YIELD

At #10, CI Financial is engaged in the management, marketing, distribution and administration of mutual funds, segregated funds, structured products and other fee-earning investment products for Canadian investors. Co. operates two reportable segments: Asset Management and Asset Administration. The asset management segment provides the management of mutual, segregated, pooled and closed-end funds, structured products and discretionary accounts. The asset administration segment involves the sale of mutual funds and other financial products, and ongoing service to clients and capital market activities.

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