Currency
Real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4% in the second quarter, following 0.5% growth in the first quarter. On a monthly basis, real GDP by industry declined 0.5% in June.
The Canadian Dollar dropped on the print but has since come back to unchanged and is holding steady despite the continued slowing of real Canadian GDP.
Drew Zimmerman
Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor
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Emerging-market stocks rose as oil slumped on easing prospects for an imminent military attack on Syria. Indonesia’s rupiah gained after a surprise interest-rate increase, while India’s rupee jumped the most since 1986.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 1.2 percent to 920.84, capping the biggest increase in about five weeks. Philippine stocks climbed from an eight-month low as economic growth exceeded estimates. The rupiah rebounded from a four-year low after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate in an unscheduled move, while India’s rupee strengthened 3.4 percent. Mexico’s IPC index declined for a seventh consecutive day in the longest slide since January 2009.

Since 2011 there has been many persistent investment themes that have more or less been related to currency movements. However, we appear to be at yet another inflection point in which the trends that have been in place for more than two years will either continue or possibly reverse.
Perhaps the biggest investment trend since 2011 has been the strength in the USD Index, which can be seen in the chart below with a clear bullish trend for two years now.


If the USD continues to rally, it would be negative for commodity prices. We saw that last week as the USD strengthened across the board against virtually all currencies and commodity prices and deep cyclical stocks struggled. Last week, I highlighted the turnaround in industrial commodity prices as a positive sign for the deep cyclical sectors. The bottom panel also shows the low and negative correlation of industrial commodity prices to the USD.
