BP and Royal Dutch Shell reported their latest financial figures for the third quarter and both companies showed some improvement, a sign that the oil markets are starting to find their footing.

A few days ago, some of the other oil majors released third quarter earnings, revealing the ongoing damage being done to the balance sheets of even the largest oil companies. But BP and Shell offered some reasons for optimism for the industry.

….continue reading HERE

…related via ZeroHedge:

Let Crude Crash: US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007

As warned here one month ago after the farcical OPEC meeting in Algiers, the cartel’s latest jawboning ploy to keep prices artificially higher – if only for one more month – is fast falling apart. Just a few hours ago, Bloomberg reporter Daniel Kruger penned the following assessment of the situation:

…read more HERE

…related:

Crude Oil – Herding Cats As Reality Sets In

Wednesday October 26, 2016-  3:00pm Pacific (MT Ed: Stephen went bearish crude Oct 25th after gaining $10 being bullish from August 3)

DOW + 30 on 850 net declines

NASDAQ COMP – 33 on 1000 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish

STOCKS: Apple reported its first annual revenue decline in 15 years and led the stock market lower. Boeing helped buoy the Dow by rising over 4% on higher guidance.

Oil prices dragged the overall market lower even though inventories showed a drawdown.

GOLD: Gold was down $7. The Wall Street Journal said that rate concerns were responsible for the decline. In other words, they don’t have a clue. Sometimes it’s just more buyers than sellers. It certainly wasn’t the dollar.

CHART We’re somewhat encouraged that the Philadelphia Semi conductor index has been outperforming the Dow. When this happens, it shows that investors still have animal spirits. These are riskier than average stocks.

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We bought the SSO at 68.82. Let’s sell at the close on Thursday.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there.

News and fundamentals: he trade deficit was $56.1 billion, less than the expected $60.5 billion. New home sales were 593,000, less than the anticipated 601,000. Oil inventories dropped 600,000 barrels. Last week they dropped 5.2 million. On Thursday we get durable goods, jobless claims and pending home sales.

Interesting Stuff: I am for doing good to the poor, but I differ in opinion about the means. I think the best way of doing good to the poor is not making them easy in poverty, but leading or driving them out of it. ———-Benjamin Franklin

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 63.

BONDS: Bonds lower.

THE REST: The dollar was slightly lower. Silver was lower as was crude oil.

Bonds –Bearish as of Oct. 4.

U.S. dollar -Bullish as of August 30. 

Euro — Bearish as of August 30.

Gold —-Bullish as of October 19.

Silver—- Bullish as of October 25. 

Crude oil —- Bearish as of October 25.

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

www.toddmarketforecast.com

…also: Monthly Charts Argue for Lower Prices in Precious Metals Complex

Indicator Parameters

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

We should now begin to see a drop in WTI over the next couple of months and in to 2017, so far the consolidation that has occurred over the last few weeks has been as forecast and the next down phase we have been modeling for months is now due.

We have been forecasting for some time that the the Pound would be the weakest of the major currencies going forward and so far of all the major currencies it has been with the Euro not far behind.

Our forecast for a new down leg down in the Euro against the Dollar has remained on track for some time, we do now appear to beginning the next Dollar bull phase which could see parity within months. We expect this Dollar strength to be negative for many stock markets and other assets going forwards.

We are forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months, we think the SPX along with most of the major indices has put in a top, this fits in well with our commodity and forex forecasts. Our S&P500 forecast has remained on track for some time, it has been indicating that we are on the verge of a period of weakness it may take a few more weeks before we begin to see the market drop in earnest. We expect this weakness to extend well in to 2017.

We are still forecasting a new down leg in commodities, a stronger Dollar and an even stronger Yen during the fourth quarter of this year. We anticipate this Dollar strength will create the conditions for some key markets to sell off for a period which will relieve some over bought conditions necessary for a healthy market.

You can view live short term forecasts at our website, they are a representation of our medium and long term forecasts which always show the full picture, prices tend to be more random day to day than they are week to week or even month to month. Our short term forecasts are always anchored against these larger patterns that barley change from week to week, this is what allows us to be so confident with our shorter term forecasts in spite of the increase in volatility.

Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years, we create a most probable long term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.