Energy & Commodities
How many of the proposed LNG facilities will go ahead?


Going on price alone you may be tempted to think that oil is a buy here, after dropping for 6 days in a row, as we can see on the 6-month chart for Light Crude shown below. However, the volume pattern looks bearish. The drop so far this month has been on heavier than normal volume which has had the effect of driving volume indicators to new lows – way below where they were at the August trough. This persistent heavy downside volume implies that oil is on the verge of crashing this support and dropping much more steeply, and at the time of writing it appears to be, with the broad market dropping hard too.

Compared to the stock market commodities are probably relatively inexpensive. But a strong price recovery I don’t see. First of all, a lot of commodity supplies are coming on stream.
Second, a lot of producers will continue to produce as long as they cover variable costs. Three, as I mentioned before, demand from China is not likely to pick up anytime soon.
So the outlook for commodities is maybe not much lower on the downside and maybe you can have a rebound. Oil fell from over $100 down to around $40. Maybe we can have a rebound to $60. I would guess the long term equilibrium price of oil is somewhere between $40 and $60. But you can undershoot, like in 2008, when it went down to $32. – in Sprott Global
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Hedge funds are betting this week’s OPEC meeting will deliver another bearish blow to crude.
