Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No speculative positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The crude oil moved sharply higher on Thursday and Friday and it erased many daily declines during these 2 sessions. Nobody can deny that these moves were significant, but what about their implications? Are they significant as well?

In short, we think that they are meaningful to the extent that they changed the very short-term trend, but they didn’t change the medium-term one. We got stopped out of our previous short position, but we believe that it was good decision for us to place the stop-loss order at these levels in the first place as they correctly took us out of the market when the outlook changed. Besides, the loss on this position is small compared to the profits that we made on the previous short position – it’s just a part of the process (there have to be losing trades every now and then; it’s important to have profits over the long run).

If the medium-term trend didn’t change, then why isn’t to a good idea in our opinion to stay on the short side of the market? Let’s take a look at the chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Larger Image

The answer is that because of last week’s strength, crude oil is likely to move even higher temporarily (on a short-term basis) before turning south again. The next meaningful resistance level is a few dollars higher (at $47 or so due to the combination of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the declining resistance line) and since that’s a quite likely target we see no point in holding a short position open – instead, we will focus on the confirmations of the local top and re-entering the short position and more favorable prices.

Confirmations are particularly important because crude oil could easily move even higher – to $52 or so and still remain in a medium-term downtrend and we don’t want to get in the market several dollars too early.

Given the sharpness of the recent rally, it could be the case that the above-mentioned target levels will be reached relatively soon, if we get bearish confirmations shortly as well, we’ll likely re-enter the short positions with even greater profit potential than the previous positions had. As always, we’ll keep you informed.

Summing up, crude oil rebounded sharply in the final part of last week and the very short-term trend is now bullish. Consequently, we believe that waiting with re-entering short positions for even higher prices is currently the best approach to the crude oil market. Well keep you – our subscribers – informed.

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: mixed with bearish bias

Oil Trading Alert originally published on Aug 31, 2015, 6:06 AM

Crude oil closed at $45.20 per barrel on Friday, showing that there’s an important recovery under way.

Looking at the chart, we can see that after its latest rally, crude has been left in a bullish trend. 

To confirm these bullish signals, we have to see hikes above $46.00-$47.00, surpassing last week’s highs and the 38.2% of fibonacci signal of the entire last selloff. With a break above that resistance level, we will see a further progress toward $50-$53, attacking medium-term resistance.

Overcoming such obstacles is required to confirm a further recovery, pointing toward higher areas of $62.60.

If there is a bearish attempt, we will see crude oil find support at $ 42.50, or potentially at $ 40.80.

With a direct fall to below $37.75, the mentioned bullish signals can be disregarded and we will see a continuation of the bearish movement toward $36, and even more depressed values in the coming weeks.

below is a 30 minute price chart, both courtesy of Futures Charts

I want to take a special look at gold and the dollar this morning and see if we can’t alleviate some of the fears created yesterday by the big move down in mining stocks. As I’ve noted before it’s not uncommon for big money to try to run stops to enter at the cheapest price possible. We actually saw GDXJ run the stops last winter right before a second daily cycle tacked on some very big gains in the metals sector. We may see that again in the mining sector over the next few days, possibly as oil puts in its final three-year cycle low.

….more analysis and charts HERE

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released data on the history of America’s energy supply, sorted by the

share of each energy source. We’ve taken that data to create the chart associated with today’s post.

Related Topic: Mapping Every Power Plant in the United States

The early settlers to North America relied on organic materials on the surface of land for the vast majority of their energy needs. Wood, brush, and other biomass fuels were burned to warm homes, and eventually to power steam engines. Small amounts of coal were found in riverbeds and other such outcrops, but only local homes in the vicinity of these deposits were able to take advantage of it for household warmth.

During the Industrial Revolution, it was the invention of the first coal-powered, commercially practical locomotives that turned the tide. Although wood would still be used in the majority of locomotives until 1870, the transition to fossil fuels had begun. 

Coke, a product of heating certain types of coal, replaced wood charcoal as the fuel for iron blast furnaces in 1875. Thomas Edison built the first practical coal-fired electric generating station in 1882, which supplied electricity to some residents in New York City. It was just after this time in the 1910s that the United States would be the largest coal producer in the world with 750,000 miners and blasting 550 million tons of coal a year.

The invention of the internal combustion engine and the development of new electrical technologies, including those developed by people like Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla, were the first steps towards today’s modern power landscape. Fuels such as petroleum and natural gas became very useful, and the first mass-scale hydroelectric stations were built such as Hoover Dam, which opened in 1936.

The discovery and advancement of nuclear technology led to the first nuclear submarine in 1954, and the first commercial nuclear power plant in the United States in Pennsylvania in 1957. In a relatively short period of time, nuclear would have a profound effect on energy supply, and it today 99 nuclear reactors account for 20% of all electricity generated in the United States.

Related Topic: What it Takes to Power New York (Slideshow)

In more recent decades, scientists found that the current energy mix is not ideal from an environmental perspective. Advancements in renewable energy solutions such as solar, wind, and geothermal were made, helping set up a potential energy revolution. Battery technology, a key challenge for many years, has began to catch up to allow us to store larger amounts of energy when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. Companies like Tesla are spending billions of dollars on battery megafactories that will have a great impact on our energy use.

Today, the United States gets the majority of its energy from fossil fuels, though that percentage is slowly decreasing. While oil is still the primary fuel of choice for transportation, it now only generates 1% of the country’s electricity through power plants. Natural gas has also taken on a bigger role over time, because it is perceived as being cleaner than oil and coal.

Today, in 2015, wind and solar power have generated 5% and 1% of total electricity respectively. Hydro generates 7%.

Water stocks can be a boring, but bountiful source of dividends

Whether the markets are soaring higher, plunging lower or trading in a tight range, there are ALWAYS ideas that should be on your investment radar. Below is a recommendation from a top-notch analyst willing to share his best ideas with you. This analyst tells you exactly where he is putting his money:

Want a commodity that really lets the cash flow? Then you need to look at water stocks. Often ignored by investors for more “sexier” natural resource fare, water could be the key to finding some pretty big dividends. It’s a classic tale of scarce and dwindling supplies coupled with rising global demand.

To start with, water’s current abundance is misleading. While it covers the bulk of the planet’s surface, only about 3% of the water on our planet is fresh water and less than 1% of that is even available for human consumption. That’s a problem as the demand for freshwater is growing twice as quickly as the global population. Expanding that further, during the 20th century, the global population tripled while freshwater withdrawals increased by a factor of 6.

Meanwhile, that demand is putting increased pressures on old and outdated infrastructure. Analysts at HighTower predict that the world will need to spend around $22 trillion on water-related infrastructure projects over the next 20 years just to keep things how they are.

Both of these factors mean that the various water stocks will be swimming in cash flows for quite a while. And those cash flows can mean some big dividends for investors.

Here’s three boring water stocks that pay some quality dividends.

….read more at the next Page HERE