The green arrows are 10 years long. Peaks indicated are in 1987, 2007, and potentially 2017.

The pause in 1997 was not a top because the market rally extended into early 2000. The current peak in 2017 could also extend, but valuation and timing indicators show high risk.

When the monthly RSI (timing indicator at bottom of graph) exceeds 70, turns down, and prices fall below the red support line, a significant correction or crash is possible. Those crashes occurred in 1987, 2000, and 2008. The S&P is ready to make a similar correction or crash in 2017 or 2018. The RSI has reached its highest level in two decades.

The S&P 500 Index, DOW, NASDAQ, DAX and many other indices are excessively high, thanks to central bank “stimulus” and QE policies. The monthly chart of the S&P shows S&P prices are in a high risk danger zone.

Possible tops have occurred before, but instead of crashing, the market sometimes zoomed higher. Do you own due diligence.

Also, read “Hindenburg Omen Meets Titanic Syndrome.” However, if you want to believe the S&P is going higher, read “Stock Market Crash … Another Lie.”

The Gold Market and its 10 year pattern

The gold market has an approximate 10 year low to high pattern.

Gold: 2001 – 2011

The dashed green arrow shows that gold bottomed in April 2001 and peaked in August 2011, ten years later. Gold prices bottomed in late 2015 and could rally for many years.

Gold: 1970 – 1980 & 1982 – 1993

Gold sold for about $35 per ounce in 1970, although the market was controlled. In January 1980, ten years later, it sold for over $850. Gold prices crashed to a low in June 1982 and eleven years later they peaked in August 1993.

A ten year low to high pattern, beginning with the late 2015 low in gold prices, suggests a gold price high during the middle of the next decade.

The Crude Oil Market 1998 – 2008

Crude oil prices bottomed in 1998 at under $11.00 and rose to nearly $150 per barrel in 2008, ten years later.

The Silver Market – Same 10 year pattern as gold

Silver prices have a 10 year low to high pattern similar to gold.

Silver prices bottomed in November 2001 and rallied from $4.01 to over $48 in April 2011, about 9.5 years. Silver prices bottomed again in December 2015. A nine to ten year low to high pattern suggests a high well into the next decade.

Given the exponential increases in global debt and increasing consumer prices, the coming silver and gold highs could be many times larger than today’s relatively inexpensive prices of about $1,250 for gold and $16.00 for silver.

The Nikkei 225 Index

The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index shows a pattern similar to the S&P 500 and DOW Index. The Nikkei peaked in mid-2007 and has rallied, in part due to purchases by the Japanese Central Bank, into late 2017. We shall see if 2017 is a lasting high. The weekly chart (shown below) indicates a possible rollover in prices and RSI.

Total Debt Securities

The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes data for total debt securities in the United States. In 1971 President Nixon severed the last connection between gold and the U.S. dollar, which encouraged expansion of currency in circulation, debt, and continual devaluation of the dollar.

Date       Total Debt Securities in $millions

1971                    772,728

1981                 2,224583

1991                7,902,302

2001               16,767,365

2011               33,868,046

2017              41,800,000

2021              52,771,000              (assuming continued exponential growth

2031              94,505,000               of 6.0% per year, the compounded rate

2041          $169,245,000                 for the last 20 years)

The pattern for total debt is simple: Up, Up, and Up. This makes the pattern for the dollar’s purchasing power equally obvious: Down, Down, and Down. 

SO WHAT?

1. Dollar devaluation is central bank and governmental policy. Expect it to continue.
2. To preserve purchasing power, your income, savings and retirement must grow more rapidly than the dollar is devalued. 
3. The stock markets (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, DAX etc.) have increased in price since 1982, 2002 and early 2009. 
4. Gold and silver have increased in price since 1971, 1991, 2001 and late 2015. 
5. Buy low, sell high! Buying gold and silver in January 1980 and April 2011 was unfortunate timing. 
6. Buying the U.S. stock market in early 2000 and mid-2007 was unfortunate timing. We may look back from future years and compare 2017 to 2007. 
7. The stock market indices, as of late December 2017, are expensive and ripe for a correction. Today is a high risk time to purchase most stocks. 
8. Central banks have levitated stock markets since 2009 via the injection of trillions of digital currency units in addition to outright purchases of stocks and ETFs. But central banks are not all-powerful. If they were, the market disasters in 2000 and 2008 would have been prevented. More crashes will occur.

CONCLUSIONS:

• Dollar devaluation is central bank and government policy. It will continue.
• Stock markets have been levitated by central bank “stimulus” and “printing.” Most stocks are now dangerously high, whether measured by fundamentals or technical timing indicators. 
• Stock markets MAY have already turned lower as indicated by the daily and weekly charts. The monthly charts say, “Look out below!” 
• Gold and silver prices are currently inexpensive and will rise substantially as dollar devaluation continues. Fear and panic from stock and bond sell-offs will also push gold and silver prices much higher.
• Take advantage of current low metals prices by purchasing silver, platinum, and gold. 

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

Lithium prices have traveled sideways recently. So the shares of lithium miners, developers and explorers have suffered a correction. As they often like to do, speculators are temporarily rushing out of a market simply because it’s no longer going up, up, up. They’re probably piling into Bitcoin.

Folks, nothing goes straight up (not even Bitcoin). A cooling off in the lithium market is just what the doctor ordered. 

Look at these charts:

Click image for larger view

The chart on the left shows the prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate in Asia. Asia is the major buyer of lithium. Since the metal doesn’t trade on an exchange (yet), we have to use transactions in Asia to track it. You can see that 2016 and ’17 were rocket rides for the metal.

Again, nothing goes straight up.

On the right is a chart showing how lithium was consumed in 2016, the latest data reported. You can see that half of all global lithium consumption was used in energy storage. That’s all the batteries that go into electric vehicles (EVs), phones, grid storage, and other electronics. Importantly, while 50% of all lithium went to energy storage, that’s up from 30% just two years earlier. This makes for a tight market.

And going forward, what is the surge in energy storage going to do to lithium? I’ll tell you. Demand for lithium is projected to mushroom over 300% within eight years.

Where will all that lithium come from?

Indeed, the tight market is going to continue to squeak into 2018, according to Benchmark Minerals and other experts. Even as new mines come online. The mines simply can’t come online fast enough. It takes many years to find and develop a deposit. And there are risks all along the way.

So, what does this tell us about the recent pullback in the Global X Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (NYSE: LIT)? You know, the fund that holds a basket of companies that are all leveraged to lithium in all sorts of ways?

It tells us that pullback is a buying opportunity. We may not be at THE bottom. Year-end is not only the Christmas season … it’s shenanigans season for metals of all types. Funds and investors big and small rebalance, take tax losses or gains and so on. The metals markets, being small, can get pushed around.

But the bottom is close. The future for lithium is clear. And that is full throttle down when the next rally comes.

All the best,
Sean Brodrick

Big announcement: Dr. Martin Weiss and I just announced precisely WHEN gold, silver, oil, and four other commodities will EXPLODE higher. Plus, we pinpointed the precise profit potential for each. Click here now for the recording of our 30-minute emergency briefing. It was just posted on our website…

THE TRANSCRIPT: New Supercycle Profits, Part I.

Martin Weiss: Over the past few months, Sean Brodrick and I have told you that we’re in for a roller coaster ride through hell.

That the era in which governments could amass debt with impunity is ending. And that a new era in which mankind pays the price for those debts, is beginning.

It will be an era of gargantuan government debts going bust.

An era when the very essence of what government is all about will come into question.

An era that will see massive government layoffs on both sides of the oceans.

And also threaten the liberties of hundreds of millions of citizens as desperate governments move to tax those citizens, spy on those citizens, and even nationalize their wealth.

It will be an era of currency wars, trade wars, civil uprisings, civil wars and even international wars. It will be an era of more government repression, authoritarianism, fascism, leading to …

Reduced privacy, reduced freedoms, reduced returns on your capital.

No, it is not a pretty picture.

According to our research, this is the first time the world has faced such a period of possible debt defaults in major nations since at least the Great Depression.

There will be similarities, and there will be differences between now and then.

In terms of the similarities, we’ll see economies and governments reel. We’re already seeing turmoil in the Middle East, Europe, South Asia, East Asia.

And here in the United States, we’re already seeing two of our main political parties splitting apart, into warring factions.

We see separatist movements gaining momentum overseas like in Catalonia, where 90% recently voted to secede from Spain.

In Italy, where there are at least three powerful separatist movements — in Venice, in North Italy, in Sicily. Or in Belgium where the Flemish-speaking half of the nation is almost at war with the French-speaking half.

Yet, throughout it all, there are shining lights of hope for those in the know. Beacons of light that will help you grow and protect your money like never before.

Provided you keep an open mind … provided you realize that the world is changing … and provided you use the lessons of history as your guide.

That’s what we do. We predicted the troubles overseas would create a tidal wave of fight capital, and they did.

We’ve predicted that the money would flow to the safest safe haven in the world, the United States, and it did.

We told you this tidal wave of capital would drive the U.S. stock market to all-time highs, and that hashappened.

We also told you that Europe would be among the first to fall, creating tremendous profit opportunities, and now that forecast is also beginning to unfold.

France posted nearly zero growth in the most recent quarter.

Spain’s GDP is down, nearly 10% over the last three years.

Great Britain has confounded the political establishment by voting to leave the European Union.

Standard and Poor’s and Fitch have downgraded the U.K. and they’re now warning that they’re going to downgrade it again.

And meanwhile, Brexit is a disaster both for the U.K. and for the EU. Each is going to lose a major trading partner and hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Unemployment in the European Union is already sky-high: 9.6% in France … 11.3% in Italy … 17.7% in Spain … 22.5% in Greece!

That’s more than FIVE times the jobless rate in the United States, and it’s dangerous.

But let me tell you what’s even more dangerous. It has to do with Germany, the one major economic engine of Europe.

The German Government Coalition has just collapsed. An upstart political party, Alternative für Deutschland, has surged to prominence.

What’s next? We’ve told you all along. We’ve told you that the crisis ahead is going to be a crisis of government:

Ruthless government taxation. Government repression. And government debt.

That’s why the epicenter of the next financial earthquake will be in the market for sovereign debt — the bond market.

And now that crisis is also beginning. All over the world, major sovereign bonds have been falling in value. And all over the world, their decline has barely begun.

Now here’s the biggest payoff of all: As we’ve told you all along, the crisis will continually drive tremendous amounts of FEAR MONEY into key resources, especially in two major sectors.

That’s what the Edelson Institute has predicted. It’s coming true. And that’s what the Edelson Institute continues to predict, right Sean?

Sean Brodrick: Yes, we also predicted that our subscribers would make a huge amount of money with that trend and they had the opportunity to do just that.

Martin: Could you give us the names and numbers for those?

Sean: I will in a sec, but first let me tell you about the two major resource sectors that really benefit the most from this crisis.

The first is metals of all kinds — not just precious metals like gold, silver and palladium, but also industrial metals like copper and metals that most investors know very little about.

I’m talking about energy metals — metals that are needed for lithium-ion batteries.

And the second major resource sector is OIL.

Martin. Tell us about the metals first and then come back to oil later.

Sean: OK. Since January 2016, the price of nickel is up about 35%. Copper? It’s up 47%! Those are the industrial metals most people are familiar with.

Martin: Those are just extraordinary price increases right there.

Sean: Yes, great, great gains. But now look at the energy metals! Lithium is up about 137% in that time frame. 137%! At the same time, cobalt is up an astounding 160%!

We wrote about lithium and cobalt before any other analysts. It’s what we told our readers about in conference after conference. And as a result, subscribers should have a slew of profits.

Martin: OK, now tell us about those profits.

Sean: OK, our Integra Gold is up 31.8%. Our Sociedad Química y Minera is up 30.7%. And our Katanga Mining is up 142%. Plus 175% on Lithium Americas. I like to let those big winners run.

And most of these positions were held for less than three months. Sometimes less than a few weeks! Now, you should know that we probably won’t be re-recommending the same instruments that made us all this money so far.

Martin: That’s logical.

Sean: Right. But we WILL be recommending brand-new investments.

Martin: I get that. But when our readers see these kinds of profit numbers, they begin to wonder, you know. “Have I missed the boat?” “Is it too late for me now?”

Sean: Everything that I see in precious metals right now tells me that, after a dip, the next leg is going to be huge.

Martin: After a dip.

Sean: Yes, right. This is exactly why we decided to hold this emergency conference right now. Because this month we’re getting the intermediate correction that we warned about, and this gives us an ideal buying opportunity right now.

The key is that our cycle charts predicted this. They said two things: First that precious metals will bottom in late December. Second, these same precious metals will march dramatically higher in January.

Martin: And we have good evidence of that prediction because we were right here in this studio in a Q&A session with our subscribers, and that’s exactly what you said.

These are the same cycle charts that have been calling the big tops and bottoms in the resource markets year after year with uncanny accuracy.

Those predictions could have helped you multiply your money many times over. And now, here we are again, in December 2017, and it looks like the markets are moving exactly on queue with what we predicted in that Q&A session just a month ago.

Sean: Yes, they are.

Martin: So share with our readers some of the fundamental forces that are behind these cycles and these forecasts.

Sean: We call it the Commodity Master Wave, and it’s driven by two critical forces.

The first is the power of supply and demand. The very fact that commodity prices have been so underpriced and undervalued for so long has caused supplies to dwindle all over the world. That is one force.

The second force is directly related to the supercycle in government debt that converged with all the other cycles just about five weeks ago.

So as this crisis unfolds, what was once considered safe to invest in — government debt — is going to become the riskiest of all. And what was once considered risky is now about to become the choice for savvy investors all over the world: Gold, silver, oil and other natural resources.

Those resources are about to emerge as the single best safe haven for global investors. Not just as hedges against inflation but more importantly as hedges against global crisis.

Martin: Now let me throw a historical perspective on this if I may? It’s something that my father taught me from an early age and his father taught him:

Historically, commodities are ideal investments in times of crisis. Because people, societies, nations — they just can’t live without them. Food. Water. Energy. Materials to build homes. And most notably, gold and silver.

Consider for example, the last time we entered a major period of economic and political turmoil — the Great Depression.

Now, there are, of course, big differences between then and now. But like today, the political instability was mostly overseas, especially in Europe.

You had devastating, crippling, hyper-inflation in Germany in the early 1920s. The rise of Mussolini, 1922. The fall of the Weimar Republic — the German Weimar Republic — in 1933. And Hitler’s rise to power in that same year. Then the Spanish civil war three years later.

And all the while, wave after wave of flight capital was flowing from Europe to America.

Like today, investors ran away from the dangers. And like today, they flocked not only to the United States, but they also flocked to the relative safety of hard assets like commodities.

No, I wasn’t there personally in the 1930s, but my father was there. And in the 1930s he helped famous investors like Bernard Baruch, who was an adviser to many presidents, and Joseph Kennedy, the father of JFK. He helped them invest in gold, gold shares and silver.

“There we were,” he said. “Governments failing, winds of war everywhere, debts imploding and banks on the brink or failed, and surprisingly, commodity prices were suddenly going through the roof.”

Base metals prices also soared. Aluminum, for instance. It almost doubled in price in a short two-year period. Ditto for share prices of many commodity producers.

A major silver company by the name of Bunker Hill was trading for just three dollars and change. That was 1932. In 1937, it was selling for $36.25. Most investors missed that move. But a handful of savvy investors grew their wealth by 835%.

Or look at Kennecott Copper! It rose from $4.25 to $69.38. That’s a whopping 1,432% gain right in the middle of the Depression.

Or consider International Nickel. Its share price started from a low of $3.50 per share. Five years later it reached a high of $73.38 per share. That gain was 1,887%.

Anaconda Cooper was the biggest example of all. It surged from a low of $3 per share in 1932 to a high of $69.50 in 1937. That was a staggering gain of 2,116%.

Smack dab in the middle of all the same kind of turmoil that we’re seeing in the world today.

It’s little wonder that so many of our readers right now have been filling our mailbag with questions about commodities and they’re asking,

When will I get a chance to buy?

When will the real bull market finally get underway?

When will gold and silver touch bottom? When will they blast off?

Which other resource sectors are about to hit bottom? Exactly when will they explode higher?

Editor’s Note: We have just published a new, in-depth, report with all the answers. In it, we give you:

• The cycles charts that confirm that the blast-off phase in seven key commodities is about to begin …
• The facts on the ground — the supply and demand fundamentals on gold, silver, oil, copper and other Supercycle investments — which validate this conclusion …
• Gold investments projected to deliver gains of 774% … 932% … up to 1,154% …
• Silver investments projected to deliver gains of 735% … 1,063% … up to 1,493%.

The report, “Multiply Your Money Up to 16x with 7 Supercycle Windfalls in 2018,” could prove to be the most profitable report you read all year.

It’s free. There’s no obligation, no strings attached — and it could make you very rich. Go here to read it.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

We are currently standing before one of the most unique and frightening periods in history. Never have there been so many extremes in so many different areas. In the last 100 years everything seems to have developed so much faster, including population, technology, inflation, debt, money printing, budget deficits, stock, bond and property prices, crypto currencies etc.

All of these areas are now in an exponential growth phase. The final stage of exponential growth is explosive and looks like a spike that goes straight up. A spike for a major sample like global population or the Dow never finishes with just a sideways move. Once a spike move has finished, it always results in a spike move down.

It seems that everything in the world is developing much faster today like computers and mobile phones or robots. The world assumes that this exponential growth in so many areas will continue or even accelerate further. But sadly, that is unlikely to be the case.

EXPONENTIAL MOVES ARE TERMINAL

There is a more scientific illustration how these exponential moves occur and also how they end. (Ed Note: Great article & charts!)

….continue reading HERE

….also from Egon Von Greyerz:

MAJOR ALERT: Greyerz Says One Of The Two Largest Banks In Switzerland Just Refused To Hand Over Clients’ Physical Gold. Even More Surprising Is What The Client Did Next

It’s a good time to take an updated look at oil, because the paradoxes we observed regarding gold and silver, which we looked at in yesterday’s new Gold and Silver Market updates are much more extreme in the case of oil.On the latest 5-year chart for Light Crude we see that oil has in recent weeks succeeding in breaking out of its giant Head-and-Shoulders base pattern at last. We also see that volume has expanded greatly over the past 2 years which is viewed as a sign of a completing bottom. Recent strong upside volume has driven both volume indicators to new highs, despite the price still being way below its 2013 highs – this is viewed as a very bullish sign, and suggests that oil will advance at least to the $80 area.

…..continue analysis HERE