Gold & Precious Metals
“I believe we are finally in the up cycle for gold and it started late last year or early this year – what I really love right now is the short story – the short story is….”the commercials are heavily short” and they are never or hardly ever wrong – that’s the investment advice these days – don’t buy gold bc the commercials are very short and it might drop back under 1180. Brilliant just friggan Brilliant”
“For the Elliot wave crew – this should be the 3rd wave up and that is the longest wave of them all so if you thought wave 1 to 1900 was special”

Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Gold’s Inconsequential Rally
Posted by PremPrzemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits
on Wednesday, 6 April 2016 15:23
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions (150% of the full position) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view.
Gold moved higher yesterday, but it doesn’t seem that it had a major impact on even the short-term outlook as even the short-term resistance line wasn’t broken. Consequently, the previous trends remain in place. Let’s take a look at the details, starting with the long-term gold chart

- I’ve strongly stated that in the short and intermediate term, the most important price driver of gold is the US dollar’s movement against the yen.
- The dollar is the world’s largest “risk-on” market, because America is the world’s largest debtor. Japan is the world’s largest creditor.
- Downside action of the dollar against the yen is a financial fire alarm bell. When the alarm rings, many of the world’s most powerful FOREX economists urge their clients to buy gold, and many do with substantial size.
- Today is a very exciting day for the entire Western gold community. To understand why, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The dollar just broke the key 111 “line in the short term sand” against the yen!
- To view the immediate effects of that breakdown on the price of gold, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. On this short term gold chart, the response of gold to the dollar’s breakdown is very clear.
- Gold is like a movie star; supporting actors are needed to put on a great show. On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. This daily oil chart shows oil arriving at some very interesting chart support, just as gold begins to rally and the dollar versus yen alarm bell rings.
- Also, note the position of my 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator at the bottom of the chart. A solid buy signal seems to be imminent.
- Does the alarm bell being rung by the dollar this morning have an inflationary theme? I think it does.
- If oil can rise above the recent highs in the $42.50 area, that’s almost certainly going to generate a new wave of powerful institutional buying in commodity markets.
- Sadly, when the dollar alarm bell rings, it can have ominous implications for the US stock market. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily chart of the Dow.
- There’s a breakdown from a “bear wedge” pattern in play, and that is occurring as the month of May quickly approaches. The time-tested “Sell in May, and go away” advice may be particularly valuable this year, if Janet Yellen announces a rate hike on April 27.
- I’ve argued that rate hikes are very good for gold in the current environment, because of the existence of the massive “QE money ball” sitting at the Fed.
- The Fed can theoretically offer the banks a higher interest rate than they can receive by loaning it out in the commercial banking system. That fact is likely irrelevant, because the banks can use the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking to loan that money out privately, at a ratio of 10 loaned dollars to each deposited dollar. The movement of the QE money ball into the fractional reserve banking system can cause a shocking reversal of money velocity, and a major rise in the rate of inflation.
- Mainstream media likes to claim rate hikes are bad for gold. Unfortunately for them, the facts of the $230+ rally that followed Janet’s first rate hike speak vastly louder than their words.
- Higher US rates are bad for the Dow, and good for gold. That’s because higher rates in the current environment create a risk-off tidal wave. It’s that simple. Can a second rate hike drive gold another $200 higher, while creating a crash in the Dow, and perhaps a meltdown in US real estate? I think the answer is: Yes.
- In the big picture, gold is on the cusp of what I’ve termed a bull era. As famous hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller recently noted, America’s population is aging much faster than it is being born. The debt-soaked US government is a giant ball & chain attached to a small and shrinking working class.
- The situation is bad, and set to become horrific and fatal, regardless of which politician gets elected. Only gold revaluation can restore the US government’s balance sheet, and I’ve predicted that is probably coming during the next major economic downturn.
- At the same time as the American empire dies of old age, the rise of the gargantuan populations of China and India are bringing unprecedented love trade thunder to global gold price discovery. The SGE gold price fix should be launched within about two weeks, and India’s central bank just cut rates, after issuing a statement that a good monsoon season is expected. That means large crops, and lots of money for farmers to buy gold!
- Please click here now. I’ve argued adamantly that negative rates in Europe are as bullish for gold as rate hikes are in America. The Europe situation is different from America, and clearly the WGC (World Gold Council) agrees that investors need to take strong buy-side action.
- The bottom line is that gold is the world’s ultimate asset, and there’s never been a more ultimate time to accumulate it in size than right now.
- A lot of investors look at the gold versus silver ratio. Rather than looking at that ratio, I think silver enthusiasts should simply watch the US inflation rate.
- When powerful US money managers begin talking about a “concerning rise” in the US inflation rate, they will buy silver quite aggressively. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous daily silver chart. Silver has a beautiful inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern in play, and the initial price target is $18.
- I think it’s a terrible idea to attempt to “micro manage” what are likely generational lows in the price of gold, silver, and associated stocks. Market timers can get destroyed when major value players are buying heavily. What appears to be a top often becomes a simple pause in the upside fun. If ever there was a time for Western gold community investors to “chase price”, with manageable risk, that time is now!
- In the case of silver stocks, they are poised to soar. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s the monthly SIL chart. The technical action is probably best described as, “awesome”. The key 5,15 moving average series is verging on a major buy signal. SIL just rose above the dotted centre Keltner line, which is a momentum-style buy signal. Volume is rising, and there’s a massive bull wedge breakout in play. Against the background of the dollar’s inflationary alarm bell ringing, silver stocks are likely poised to launch what may be the biggest rally seen in any asset class of the past few years!
Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Find Me A Golden Nugget!” report. If gold rises above the recent $1280 area highs, institutional money managers will likely begin adding key exploration companies to their portfolios. I highlight the GLDX Gold Explorers ETF, and the leaders in it, with key buy and sell signals for each component!
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Cheers
st
Stewart Thomson
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Back in 2014, online bullion dealer Tulving shocked its many customers by suddenly failing. See Coinweek’s story: How does $40M of Gold and Silver Disappear: The Collapse of Tulving Company
Last week another one bit the dust:
NW Territorial Mint seeks bankruptcy protection
(Seattle Times) – Northwest Territorial Mint, a Federal Way company that sells precious metals and produces medals and medallions, filed for Chapter 11 protection Friday, a month after the company and its owner were hit with large jury verdicts in a defamation case.
Northwest Territorial Mint, a Federal Way company that sells precious metals and produces medals and medallions, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Friday.
The move came a month after the company and its owner, Ross B. Hansen, were each hit with multimillion-dollar jury verdicts in a defamation and invasion of privacy lawsuit brought in Nevada by a Los Angeles businessman.
The company’s filing says it has more than 200 unsecured creditors, and its assets and liabilities both exceed $10 million. Its biggest listed debts are a $7 million judgment in favor of the businessman, Bradley Steven Cohen, and a $5.5 million judgment in favor of his firm, Cohen Asset Management, both classified as disputed.
The defamation suit claimed Northwest Territorial Mint and Hansen created anonymous websites that compared Cohen to Bernard Madoff, the Wall Street broker convicted of a massive Ponzi scheme. The lawsuit claimed the animosity stemmed from litigation by an affiliate of Cohen’s firm, which had been the mint’s landlord at an Auburn warehouse.
The federal judge’s order in the defamation case indicates the judgments against Northwest Territorial Mint and Hansen total $37 million.
This morning a DollarCollapse.com reader (and disappointed NTM customer) sent the the following:
I’ve dealt with this company many times since 2008 and was accustomed to excessive delays, but eventually did receive the ordered products. In September 2015, my wife and I placed an order and paid by credit card. At the time of order, delivery was estimated to be 6 – 8 weeks. In December, they informed us that there would be delays and this repeated in January, February and March. In early March, they told us the order would be shipped in the first week of April and instructed us to call to confirm in April. Yesterday, April 1, my wife called again and the order was still on hold – that, in fact, everything had been suspended. This made me very uneasy and this morning (April 2) we called the credit card issuer to find out what they could do to reverse the charges. Their policy limits that action to 120 days, even if the product wasn’t delivered. When the credit card company checked their information on NWT Mint, they tell us that as of April 1 NWT Mint is now under BANCRUPTCY PROTECTION. That is not good news, and I fear we have lost our $3,000+
Presumably a lot of other people are in the same boat. So here’s how to keep something similar from happening to you:
- First and foremost, don’t binge; dollar-cost-average. Customers who did all their metals buying with one big order, only to see the whole thing disappear, were devastated by NTM’s failure. But customers who placed small, regular orders were out considerably less. This is yet another reason (along with the extreme volatility of metal prices) to enter this market gradually and steadily rather than all at once.
- While your money is at risk, watch for emerging problems. From the previously-referenced Coinweek article:
Fortunately, I was suspicious. I don’t consider myself paranoid, but I do believe in Ronald Reagan’s “Trust, but verify.” I looked at the Better Business Bureau (BBB) reports, and saw a big uptick in complaints, from 1 every 6 months to 8 within 6 months. In a private forum, I wrote “So the first sign of trouble with a business like this, in my opinion, would be a noticeable change in delivery times and “juggling” orders.” At that point, I did not think they had a problem. But even if I had, I would have had no clue how monstrous a problem it would become.
Finally in September, 2013, stories started getting out about delays at The Tulving Company. Someone claimed they had sent $200,000 to Tulving five months prior, and had not received any metal yet. The problem with Internet forums, however, is that while they are great at getting information out, they are nearly anonymous. Some of the early complainers were accused of being shills from competitors. Those that had done business with Tulving before would back up the company, recalling times they had gotten their orders very quickly. Nobody really knew who or what to believe.
I decided to spend a few minutes back at the BBB website to see where things stood. There was a noticeable change this time, with 18 complaints in 2 months. Not to the point of screaming “scam!”, but enough that I really started to take notice. In the private forum I mentioned, I explained that I was confused because “it doesn’t fit what I would expect the 2 most plausible fraud scenarios to be: [1] funding his retirement, or [2] ponzi scheme funding a flashy lifestyle (ala Bernie Madoff).”
At that point, I knew there was a problem. From the many reports that Hannes was picking and choosing which orders to ship each day, I thought maybe he was simply unable to properly manage the business anymore. Perhaps he needed some extra people to help ship orders, perhaps his health had deteriorated. After 20 years of impeccable service, it was hard to imagine the worst.
What I should have focused on at the time was the length of the delays: even in June, 2013 and July, 2013, the average delays reported were 7-8 weeks. The FTC does not allow companies to take orders if they know they cannot ship it within the timeframe they specify (or 30 days, if no time is specified). And Hannes himself stated in his FAQ that he believes taking over 30 days to deliver is a futures contract, which he is not allowed to sell.
My “Aha!” moment was in October, 2013, when someone reported that she sent Tulving 220 ounces of gold to Tulving, and couldn’t get them to pay her. It’s one thing to delay bullion (there could be delays due to drop-shippers, metal shortages, insurance limits, heavy volume, etc.). But I realized that the inability to pay cash was the smoking gun, since he should have had a huge amount of money sitting in the bank from all the delayed orders.
It slowly dawned on me that The Tulving Company had a massive backlog of orders worth many millions of dollars that they would not be able to fulfill. I knew this was not going to have a pretty ending, I knew that something was terribly wrong. In a number of cases, people had trusted The Tulving Company with their life savings. Worse, I had recommended Tulving to many people over the years. I had to do something, I had to let people know.
By the end of November, The Tulving Company had racked up over 150 complaints, and by the end of 2013 they had nearly 250 complaints.
- Know the “statute of limitations” on your credit card. As the above reader found out, the order could have been cancelled via the credit card up to 120 days in. Presumably different cards offer different terms, so it’s imperative to know when this feature runs out on the card you’re using, and to take advantage of it. Cancel the payment if your metal hasn’t arrived by the expiration of the card’s protection.
- And finally, keep some perspective. Bullion dealer bankruptcies are a bit like plane crashes. They’re big news when they happen, which makes the event seem more common than it is. Dozens of reputable dealers (see here and here, for instance) have been delivering on time and without hassle — and without publicity — all along. So Tulving and NTM don’t justify swearing off on-line bullion buying. But they are a good reason for vigilance until that package arrives.
also:
Podcast: The Inevitable Is Now Imminent

Best Q1 for gold in 30 years
Posted by Mark O'Byrne via Hard Assets Investor
on Saturday, 2 April 2016 13:47
Gold prices gained 16% in the first quarter and had their best quarterly performance since 1986. Gold made gains due to continuing ultra loose monetary policies, diminished U.S. rate-increase expectations, worries about global economic growth, both U.S. and global geopolitical concerns and turmoil in markets.
Most of the gains came in the first six weeks of the year when market turmoil was at its worst and sharp falls were seen in stock markets. For the quarter, the S&P recovered from losses and eked out a 0.9% gain, the DJIA was 1.7% higher while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7% on concerns of a new tech bubble.
European stocks had a torrid quarter with the EuroStoxx 50 shedding 10.3 percent and the DAX down 9%. The Nikkei crashed 13.2% in the quarter as the Japanese economy showed little signs of recovery and indeed looks on the verge of a depression.
The dollar logged its worst quarterly performance since 1990 as the Federal Reserve slowed the expected pace of interest rate hikes, citing worries about the potential domestic impact of very weak global growth.
Sterling was the weakest major currency in the world and the British pound weakened 2.5% against the dollar and 20% against gold over the course of the quarter as worries about a possible U.K. exit from the European Union led to traders selling sterling aggressively.


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