On the heels of the gold and silver surging along with the Dow, the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year-old Richard Russell, said the brutal bear phase in gold and silver is now coming to an end.  The legend also discussed other key markets.

Richard Russell:  “Everything that I read regarding the US economy is bullish. The only newspaper that dares to publish bearish comments on the US economy is Investor’s Business Daily. The mass of comments about the US economy is so lopsided, it makes one wonder if supply and demand has given way to Fed manipulation. I find myself wondering whether the stock market still retains any forecasting ability.

But let’s face it…..read more HERE

One of the most common pieces of advice in the gold-bug world is to get as much metal as possible for your money, which means buying bullion rather than rare (i.e., numismatic or collectible) coins. The latter weren’t confiscated in 1934, but — so goes this line of thinking — that’s not an issue this time around because gold isn’t legal tender and therefore doesn’t have to be confiscated for the government to devalue the currency.

But today differs from 1934 in another way that might offset bullion’s advantage over collectibles: Governments around the world, after decades of overspending and overborrowing, are desperate for tax revenues and are actively trying to uncover untapped stores of wealth. That’s why the rules governing Americans’ offshore accounts, for instance, keep getting stricter. And why France and several other countries have lowered the allowable size of cash transactions.

….continue reading HERE
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The precious metals complex has attempted to stabilize over the past few weeks. Some markets have had more success than others. Gold has been able to hold $1080/oz while GDXJ has also held its recent low. The large cap indices (GDX, XAU, HUI) have grinded lower to new bear market lows this week. This leads us to the near term predicament. Is the sector basing before a rebound or merely consolidating before another steep leg down?

Gold will certainly give us the answer and it could come within a few days. While Gold has held support at $1080/oz it has yet to break above $1100/oz. A daily close above $1100/oz would likely lead to $1140/oz whereas a daily close below $1080/oz could lead to a decline down to major support around $1000/oz. We should note that the current net speculative position in Gold is the lowest in 14 years at 3.4% of open interest or ~15K contracts. I would not be surprised to see speculators eventually become net short Gold.

Gold & Gold CoT

Gold is not quite as oversold as the gold miners which have been beaten and bludgeoned to death. GDXJ and GDX, charted below, show black candles in each of the past seven weeks and in GDX’s case eleven of the past twelve weeks. The miners are extremely oversold based on any and every metric and period. Note the price action over the past few weeks. The miners have failed to rally but have not closed near the lows of the week. That suggests waning selling pressure or accumulation. A rebound could begin at any moment.

GDXJ & GDX

It would be quite interesting to see what happens to the miners if Gold were to break below $1080/oz and decline towards $1000/oz. Given that the miners are already extremely oversold (and in their worst bear market ever), it is quite possible they begin to rebound before Gold reaches support at $1000/oz. In addition, if this is the way Gold breaks (lower rather than higher) then it is also quite possible that the bear market ends after that decline. That would be sooner than everyone expects.

The near term remains uncertain but we could get clarity on Friday. In any case, the precious metals sector is due for a rebound. Failure to rebound in the days ahead tells us that we could ultimately see an even greater and more significant rebound from lower levels. As we navigate the end of this bear market,consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in the second half of 2015.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

Last week, we left off with this.

“Something is happening with gold…”

It began in Dec 2008. To understand it, it is necessary to understand two principles. The first is that gold is money and the dollar is credit, which currently has nontrivial value. A dollar is worth 28.4mg gold. To understand the second, let’s look at how markets work at the mechanical level.

Regular readers of this Report know that we emphasize the bid and ask prices as separate values. The people and forces involved in the bid price are different from those involved in the ask price. This is critical in our definition and calculation of the basis and cobasis. You cannot just assume that there is a real price, somewhere between the bid and ask. That may be a working approximation during normal market conditions. But it could be badly misleading.

Suppose there is stress in the market, a crisis impending or active. The bid recedes, and can even withdraw entirely. For example, what if the US Geological Survey were to say that there will be an earthquake in Los Angeles, 15 on the Richter scale, and nothing taller than a dollhouse will be left standing? You would not find any lack of offers to sell real estate. But what is the price of a house in LA? There wouldn’t be a bid in LA, and maybe not as far south as Chile, as far north as British Columba, and as far east as the Mississippi River. The bid would come back into the market when the threat was over (perhaps at a much lower level).

The second principle is that gold is not offered for dollars, despite what you see on any quote board. Gold is  bidding on the dollar. It is comforting to assume it will always be so, that the only question is price. This is an illusion, based on unwarranted faith and the assumption—or hope—that things will continue as they currently are.

Even gold bugs accept this. They ask when gold will hit $5,000 or $10,000 or whatever price level. It may not. It may go off the board first. We don’t know what the final quote will be, but we do know that there will be one.

What’s been happening since 2008? The process of withdrawing the gold bid on the dollar has begun. There are intermittent episodes where we can see it in miniature. Of course, we’re referring to backwardation in gold and silver futures. Gold backwardation should not be possible, and yet it is occurring. So far, it’s only in small amounts and only for near contracts (not counting the episode in silver which extended out years)—what we call temporary backwardation.

Right now, the October and December gold contracts are backwardated. These backwardations, like all of them in the past 7 years, are small. At the moment, they’re less than a dollar an ounce. This is not something you can see by using typical end-of-day quotes. You need a sensitive and precise instrument, which is what Monetary metals has built.

It’s part of why we have continued to say that the market price of gold is far below the fundamental price.

Speaking of price, not much happened with the gold price this week, though there were a few $14 round trips. The price of gold ended a buck lower than last week. The price of silver did drop to $14.37 after hours on Monday. It ended the week up four cents. The true action was not seen in the price, but in the basis.

Read on for the only accurate picture of the supply and demand conditions in the gold and silver markets, based on the basis and cobasis.

First, here is the graph of the metals’ prices.

          The Prices of Gold and Silver

We are interested in the changing equilibrium created when some market participants are accumulating hoards and others are dishoarding. Of course, what makes it exciting is that speculators can (temporarily) exaggerate or fight against the trend. The speculators are often acting on rumors, technical analysis, or partial data about flows into or out of one corner of the market. That kind of information can’t tell them whether the globe, on net, is hoarding or dishoarding.

 One could point out that gold does not, on net, go into or out of anything. Yes, that is true. But it can come out of hoards and into carry trades. That is what we study. The gold basis tells us about this dynamic.

 Conventional techniques for analyzing supply and demand are inapplicable to gold and silver, because the monetary metals have such high inventories. In normal commodities, inventories divided by annual production (stocks to flows) can be measured in months. The world just does not keep much inventory in wheat or oil.

 With gold and silver, stocks to flows is measured in decades. Every ounce of those massive stockpiles is potential supply. Everyone on the planet is potential demand. At the right price, and under the right conditions. Looking at incremental changes in mine output or electronic manufacturing is not helpful to predict the future prices of the metals. For an introduction and guide to our concepts and theory, click here.

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio moved down this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

          The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

The price of the dollar rose a bit more (i.e. the price of gold fell). Again, along with this price move, the scarcity of gold rose a bit.

Let’s zoom into the past month, and look at not just the October cobasis, but also the December and February. You can see how the dollar correlates with these three cobases. Notice that February is close to the zero line (i.e. backwardation) but no cigar yet.

Closeup of Gold

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

The silver price is up a bit (i.e. the price of the dollar, as measured in silver, is down). There was a sharp drop in scarcity on Friday. And a dramatic drop in the December cobasis as well, it is lower this week than last.

The fundamental price of gold is still about a hundred bucks over the market. And in silver, it’s about 20 cents under. The price spike at 6am (Arizona time) on Friday was justified in gold, but not in silver.

© 2015 Monetary Metals

Richard Russell:  “There are two items that bother me: One, the S&P has had 7 distribution days recently, and two, Apple stock is in full correction mode, down 14% from its recent high, and now below its 200-day moving average. Apple stock is widely held by mutual funds and hedge funds, and its capitalization is so huge that the stock can move markets.”

Time For A Full-Fledged Bear Market? – read more HERE