Gold & Precious Metals

Yukon Premier Darrell Pasloski: Our Goal Is to Be the Number One Mining Location

Yukon municipalitiesTen mining stocks poised to rise are analysed – 

The Fraser Institute’s 2015 Annual Survey of Mining Companies ranks Yukon first in mineral potential and ninth overall in global mining jurisdictions, points not lost on Yukon Premier Darrell Pasloski. Pasloski believes Yukon can improve on its survey ranking and says his government is making every effort to attract mining investment. That includes continued support for the Yukon Mining Alliance, a joint effort between companies and government to co-promote one another. In this interview with The Gold Report, Pasloski talks about some companies advancing their projects in one of the world’s top mining jurisdictions.

The Gold ReportThe Yukon is ranked first in mineral potential and ninth overall in the recent ranking of global mining jurisdictions in the Fraser Institute’s 2015 Annual Survey of Mining Companies. Is that good enough? What are some of your mining-related goals for the Yukon?

Darrell Pasloski: You can’t get better than number one when it comes to mineral potential but the ninth overall ranking to me says that there’s still some work to be done. Our mineral endowment certainly is world class and the opportunities as a world-class jurisdiction for mining exploration and development will make us a future leader in the mining sector. There are more than 2,700 existing mineral occurrences in Yukon but these cover only about 12% of the land, so that leaves vast potential for current and future explorers. 

The first goal would be more streamlined permitting. The federal government currently holds our environmental assessment legislation and is making amendments to the Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic Assessment Act. Those amendments will ensure that our assessment process is consistent with those in other jurisdictions, which should allow us to remain competitive. Here in Yukon, we’re working on the Mine Licensing Improvement Initiative. Improvement to this process will foster a more predictable and efficient regulatory environment. 

Alexco Resource Corp. continues do to reclamation, as well as mining and exploration work.

The second goal would be improved infrastructure. There has been more than 100 years of mining in the territory and some good foundational infrastructure has supported the sector for decades. Yukon already has about 5,000 kilometers of government-maintained roads, an international airport, many community airports, and access to two ice-free deepwater ports that are probably a couple of days sailing closer to market than other ports along the northwest coast. Last year we made significant capital investments in highway, bridge and airport upgrades. This year our capital budget marked another record capital investment in infrastructure. And we have begun to plan for development of new hydroelectric infrastructure that will provide enough energy capacity to take us well into the future. In fact, almost all of the electricity for communities now is from renewable energy sources.

TGR: Where does mining rank in terms of economic impact in Yukon?

DP: Historically, mining has accounted for about 20% of Yukon’s GDP. Mining is the cornerstone of the Yukon economy. Things are great when the resource industry is strong, but we also feel the effects when the industry goes through cyclical downturns.

TGR: Much of the Yukon is occupied by First Nations. How is the Yukon government helping mining companies and First Nations build trust and relationships?

DP: The mining industry is the largest employer of First Nations people in Yukon. We have 14 First Nations in Yukon and almost half of the modern day land claims in Canada are here. Eleven First Nations already have land-claim and self-government agreements. Each of the First Nations that has land claims also has an economic development corporation. There’s a tangible business-ready approach to identifying opportunities. 

One of the realities, though, is that because we’ve been modern treaty trailblazers we are also among the first to encounter the challenges of such uncharted territory. Our relationship with First Nations people is strong, but it’s not always easy. Meanwhile, mining companies operating here have been progressive in developing First Nations relationships on their exploration and development projects. Each company has some type of cooperation agreement in place with affected First Nations. First Nation communities and businesses both benefit from these agreements and the opportunities that come from them. 

Victoria Gold Corp. has one of the most advanced projects in Yukon.

We also work with the Yukon First Nation Chamber of Commerce and Yukon First Nation Development Corporations. For example, we signed an agreement not long ago with Kluane First Nation to collect some geophysical data via airborne survey on a portion of the Kluane Ranges, part of its traditional territory. That area hosts Wellgreen Platinum Ltd.’s (WG:TSX; WGPLF:OTCPK) Wellgreen project. The results from such a survey will help the Kluane First Nation identify possible economic opportunities on its settlement land and assist with resource management. There’s a lot of work being done on the ground to assist First Nations. 

TGR: Please give us three reasons why mining companies should spend their limited exploration budgets in your territory versus perhaps Alaska or British Columbia?

DP: First, you mentioned earlier that the Fraser Institute identified Yukon as having the world’s greatest geological potential. There is a remarkable endowment of significant gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper, nickel, iron, molybdenum, tungsten, and platinum group metals (PGMs) deposits. More than 2,700 mineral occurrences have been identified in roughly 12% of the landmass—Yukon is significantly underexplored. We have a long history of discoveries that continues to multiply with each exploration boom. As a result of the recent two-year exploration boom that started in 2010, more than 7.3 million ounces (7.3 Moz) gold in new discoveries were added to the previously existing deposits that totaled 23 Moz gold, 50 Moz silver and 10 Moz PGMs. That’s significant.

Second, Yukon has an experienced and supportive service-supply sector. The knowledge is here whether it’s assay labs, airborne electromagnetic surveys, helicopters or drillers. The businesses that are required to support the mining industry are well established in Yukon and are here to make life easier for exploration companies.

Third, this is a very mining friendly jurisdiction. Our government recognizes that the mining industry is a cornerstone of our economy. We realize that the benefits accrue directly to Yukoners and Yukon businesses, as well as to mining companies and their investors. Our government will continue to work on its mineral development strategy. Our goal is to rank first in all of the categories in the Fraser Institute survey.

TGR: Some mining pundits believe that recent environmental legislation put in place by Canada’s federal government makes it unusually difficult to permit a mine or develop new deposits on an already permitted property. What’s your view?

DP: More than a decade ago the federal government transferred management of the territory’s land, water and resources to the territorial government. Along with that was the creation of the Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic Assessment Act here in the territory. We have our own made–in–Yukon approach to environmental assessments. Those assessments also have to factor in the social and economic benefits of each project. In the past eight years, seven mining permits have been issued within 18–30 months, which is either comparable or better than most First World jurisdictions. Investors also benefit from being in one of the most geopolitically safe mining jurisdictions in the world, with security of tenure that is second to none. Once a permit is granted, a company and its investors can move forward with little risk that the permit will be revoked. We in Yukon have grown our mineral sector over the past decade and we want to stay at the forefront of investment attraction.

TGR: Tell us briefly about the Yukon Mining Alliance. 

DP: It’s actually quite exciting. The Yukon Mining Alliance (YMA) is composed of Yukon’s leading exploration and development companies, and those firms are focused on creating innovative capital attraction initiatives to promote Yukon as a top mineral investment jurisdiction, while at the same time promoting their companies and projects. The YMA initiatives include such things as going to international conferences and events with a mining investment focus. Senior Yukon government officials support these activities by going along and communicating to investors some of Yukon’s key advantages. For instance, in September 2014 I went to the Denver Gold Forum with the Mining Alliance. A lot of companies are envious of the relationship that exists between the Yukon government and the mining industry here. It’s a unique relationship. Not only are these company CEOs promoting their product, but essentially they’re promoting Yukon as well.

TGR: That’s rare in Canada. What are some companies that are demonstrating success in the territory?

DP: That’s also pretty exciting. Victoria Gold Corp. (VIT:TSX.V) has certainly one of the most advanced projects in Yukon as it’s already permitted for construction and hosts an NI 43-101-compliant reserve of about 2.3 Moz gold. Once it reaches production it will produce more than 200,000 ounces annually. The company continues to explore and add value. Victoria completed an exploration program on the Olive zone, part of the Dublin Gulch property, in 2014, and initial results demonstrate that it is a high-grade deposit that could be amenable to heap leaching, which increases the value proposition for Victoria and its shareholders.

Wellgreen Platinum Ltd.’s project has the potential to become one of the world’s largest, low-cost producers of PGMs and nickel from an open pit.

There’s been a lot of talk about Wellgreen Platinum. This project has the potential to become one of the world’s largest, low-cost producers of PGMs and nickel from an open pit. It’s accessible from the Alaska Highway. A recently released preliminary economic assessment (PEA) shows that its resource has increased fivefold in less than three years. 

Another one is Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM:TSX.V). Kaminak owns 100% of Coffee, a high-grade oxide gold project that is amenable to heap leaching. The company recently started a feasibility study following a robust PEA released last year.

Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN:TSX; WRN:NYSE.MKT) operates here in Yukon and owns 100% of Casino, a large gold-copper project that is in the permitting phase. Should it go ahead, it would be a significant contributor to Yukon’s economy. The initial capital requirement is about $2.5 billion. 

Another one is Capstone Mining Corp. (CS:TSX), which has existed for a number of years. The company is currently completing the work necessary to obtain its water license to begin stripping its newest open pit. Capstone is a real success story. One of the unique aspects of the Capstone project is that it’s situated on land owned by the Selkirk First Nation. And because it’s on First Nation land, 100% of the royalties accrue to the First Nation development corporation and the Selkirk First Nation citizens. That’s a good example of how there can be a substantial direct benefit to First Nations as a result of the mining industry. Those are some companies that are quite exciting and that have projects that are moving along.

TGR: What are some companies that are at the early stages of exploration?

DP: Rockhaven Resources Ltd. (RK:TSX.V) is exploring its 100%-owned Klaza property, a high-grade, bulk-tonnage gold-silver prospect near Mount Nansen in southwestern Yukon. The company recently completed just under 20,000 meters of diamond drilling targeting high-grade gold and silver mineralization. 

Another one I would like to mention is Alexco Resource Corp. (AXU:NYSE.MKT; AXR:TSX). It owns the Keno Hill silver district and operated the Bellekeno mine there between 2011 and 2013, which was Canada’s only operating primary silver mine before low silver prices forced the company to suspend operations. However, Alexco has entered the permitting process to expand its opportunity for mining in that camp. The Keno Hill district hosts some significant past-producing silver mines.

TGR: Alexco is also cleaning up some of the leftover effects of those old mines. 

DP: Yes. It is a unique situation. Alexco has a contract with the federal government for reclamation work on several past-producing properties. The company continues do to reclamation as well as mining and exploration work. That’s very exciting. We have a couple of other Type 2 sites in Yukon that were permitted prior to when Canada passed the responsibility for management over to the Yukon government. Those sites are being reclaimed as we speak. 

TGR: What’s one message that you want to get out to mining investors and the public about Yukon?

DP: Most people recognize Yukon for the incredible beauty of its vast mountain ranges, Boreal forest, and spectacular lakes and rivers, but Yukon is equally beautiful below the ground. When it comes to mining, our potential is second to none. I’m excited about the opportunities out there for the mining industry. The growth and development of that industry will help bring prosperity to Yukon citizens and their communities, as well as to mining companies and their investors. By continuing to invest strategically in infrastructure and ensuring that our permitting and assessment processes are as efficient as possible, we will help position Yukon to be the best place in the world for mining.

TGR: Thank you for taking some time to talk with The Gold Report. It is much appreciated.

First elected as leader of the Yukon party on May 28, 2011, Darrell Pasloski was sworn in as Premier on June 11, 2011. He was elected to the Yukon Legislative Assembly in October of 2011 in Whitehorse’s electoral district of Mountainview. In addition to his duties as Premier, he also serves as Minister responsible for the Executive Council Office and as Minister of Finance. Prior to entering politics, Premier Pasloski worked as a pharmacist and business owner, was an active member of Yukon’s business community and had a long record of volunteer service.

 

Something BIG Is About To Happen To Silver

Yes, that’s correct. Something BIG is about to happen to silver.  Now, how this plays out is hard to tell.  Recently released new data points to a situation that will force a BIG move in the silver market.  In addition, there have been some very interesting movements in the flow of silver bullion.

As I mentioned in the article Why Is The U.S. Importing So Much Silver Bullion??,  U.S. silver bullion imports surged 44% in the first months of 2015 compared to the same period last year.  We can see this in the chart below:

U.S.-Silver-Bullion-Imports-2014-vs-2015

During Jan-Feb 2015, the U.S. imported 838 metric tons (mt) of silver bullion versus 583 mt last year.  Moreover, I mentioned that overall demand for silver in the first quarter of 2015 is either flat or down compared to last year.  So, why would the U.S. silver market need additional silver bullion if demand is lower?  Who is acquiring this silver… and why?

This brings me to the newest data put out by the CFTC.  According to the most recent COT Report, the Commercials (big bullion banks) added a massive 18,595 new silver short contracts in just the last week.  This is off the charts.  If we look at the chart below, we can see just how big this single week increase compares to the changes over the past year:

SILVER-COT-Chart-1-Year

The RED LINE in the chart below the silver price chart is the change in Commercial net short positions.  You will notice that most of the changes in the past were more subtle. The Red Line changes in a stair step pattern, either up or down.  The majority of the times, the step changes are very gradual.  However, this past week was a huge step down of a net short position of 24,362 contracts.

For all the new folks out there, let me explain this chart a little better.  The Red Line represents the net short position of the Commercial bullion banks.  As the Red Line heads lower the Commercials are adding more shorts, and as it moves higher, they are reducing shorts. You will notice a particular trend.  As the price of silver moves higher, the Commercials add more short positions, which act as more leverage against a higher price.

On the other hand, as the price of silver falls, the Commercial net short position declines as well.  Basically, they are liquidating or covering their short positions. If we look at the chart above, we can clearly see that when the Commercial net short position reached a high, so did the price of silver.  Here are the corresponding dates:

July 15, 2014 – Commercial Net Shorts = 58,696 – Silver high price = $21.53
Jan. 22, 2015 – Commercial Net Shorts = 61,593 – Silver high price = $18.49
May 19, 2015 – Commercial Net Shorts = 62,485 – Silver high price = $17.74

Each time the Commercials held the highest amount of net short positions, the price of silver peaked.  And, as the price fell to a low, the Commercial net short positions bottomed.  Not only is the Commercial net short position the highest all year, it’s the highest it’s been in over 4 years:

SILVER-COT-Chart-4-Year

The blue dotted line represents the current high amount of Commercial net short positions.  Now, when the net short positions increase, the line goes lower.  The reason for this is the net short is shown as a negative position (in red), and the net long-held by the Large Specs (in green) is shown as a positive position.

So, if we go back all the way to 2011 when silver traded at its record high of $49, the Commercial net shorts weren’t as large as they are today.  For some reason, the Commercials were motivated to add the most short positions in one week for more than four years running.

The only other time the Commercial net short position increased similar to this past week was back in June 24, 2014 when it surged 20,059.  However, the reason it jumped that much that week was due to the Commercials liquidating 7,733 long contracts while adding 12,326 shorts for a total net short position increase of 20,059.  The last weeks silver COT report update showed the Commercials liquidating 5,787 longs and adding 18,575 shorts for a total net short position increase of 24,362… over 4,000 more than the highest in the year.

We also must remember that when the Commercials reduce their long contracts; it acts as an increase to their net short position.  That being said, over the past four years the Commercials never added as many short contracts in one week as they did last week.

What does this all mean?  Well, if we go by the trend for the past several years, the Commercials are betting that the price of silver is heading lower.  How much lower??  Who knows, but the Commercials now have the most net short leverage since their last record net short position on Jan 22nd, when the price went from a high of $18.49 to a low of $15.26, just two months later.

Could Silver Skyrocket Higher On A Massive Short Squeeze?

This is the forecast put forth by Bo Polny of Gold2020Forecast.com.  I have spoken with Bo on the phone several times and he has his own method in determining the movement in the precious metals.  He sent me this chart showing how the four-year descending triangle for silver was finally broke on May 18th.

Bo-Polny-Silver-Chart-GIF-1

Bo believes the price of gold and silver will breakout before the summer, June 21, 2015.  So, there you have it.  The Commercials have placed their bets looking for the price of silver to move lower, while Bo believes we are going to see a massive short covering rally due to silver breaking out of the four year descending triangle.

With the possibility of Greece exiting the EURO, the situation in the global financial system could become very interesting.  There is a good chance the Greek exit could happen quickly.  Thus, a BIG move higher in the precious metals prices could possibly be the result.  Let’s see how the next month plays out.

As you all know, I am more of a long-term fundamental investor in the precious metals. I believe the peak and decline of global oil production will wreak havoc on the valuations of most paper assets.  Owning precious metals during this time will be one of the best investments or stores of wealth.  There is no limit to how high the value of gold and silver could reach as the Greatest Paper Ponzi Scheme in history collapses.

Nonetheless, we are going to see a great deal of volatility along the way.  Something strange is going on in the silver market that I can’t put my finger on.  There is no reason the U.S. should be importing a record amount of silver bullion as Silver Eagle sales are flat year-over-year, industrial silver consumption is likely lower, and the COMEX silver inventories didn’t really increase that much during the first quarter of 2015.

This makes the huge increase in the Commercial Net Short quite interesting. Something BIG is about to happen to silver.  The real question is… WHICH WAY WILL IT GO?

Please check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.  You can also follow us at Twitter below:

Gold Has Two Major Hurdles to Overcome

Background

Gold has 2 major hurdles to overcome and they are as follows:

1. Interest rate rises in the US

2. Money printing by other nations, Japan, UK, Europe, etc.

Both support the US$ and put downward pressure on gold.

5-27bk 

The Chart above compares Gold, USD, Euro, Pound and the HUI.

The specter of interest rate increases in the US hangs over the precious metals sector like the Sword of Damocles. The Federal

Reserve has stated that they want to ‘normalize’ rates now that the period of Quantitative Easing is over. Employment figures published by the Department of Labour have shown a steady increase in the number of jobs created over the last twelve months or so. On the inflation front; core prices, which exclude food and energy rose at a yearly pace of 1.8% for the month of April, which is the fastest monthly rise for almost a year. These data points will be viewed in a positive light by the Fed in that the economy is on track and recovering at a sufficient rate to allow for tighter monetary policy.

 

The European Union has announced a programme of Quantitative Easing for their members in an attempt to boost the European economy. The effect of this action will be to dilute the purchasing power of the Euro and so its value will fall. The same goes for the British pound and the Japanese Yen. These three currencies make up the lion’s share of the US Dollar Index, so as they drop it follows that the dollar will rise. The rising dollar will exert downward pressure on gold rendering gold cheaper in dollar terms.

Conclusion

It should be mentioned that gold has been outperforming most currencies other than the US dollar to the benefit of those living or trading in such currencies. However, they have all underperformed when compared to the dollar, so for those who wish to hold some of their funds in cash then the dollar rules.

At this stage of the cycle we remain of the opinion that the above mentioned factors weigh heavily on gold and as such gold’s progress will be severely hampered in the coming months. We also believe that some investors will throw the towel in and walk away from this sector thus precipitating a final capitulation in the precious metals sector.

The lion’s share of our investment funds are in the dollar as it continues to outperform the precious metals sector and we think it will continue to do so for now.

Patience is the order of the day and though it isn’t an exciting stance to take it certainly beats losing money.

We will continue to watch the Fed for what they say and do bearing in mind that they are ‘data driven’ which tells us the situation is fluid and subject to change. However, for those who are waiting for the advent of more Quantitative Easing, this is not going to happen and is certainly not on the cards for this year.

The producers may be cheaper than they have been for some time but that does not make them cheap or a viable investment opportunity. The mining sector has oscillated wildly this year but has gained nothing as the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI, is at the same level as it was in early January 2015.

Rallies will come and go but without the formation of new higher highs and some decent traction, this sector is held prisoner by the rising dollar and the continuing dilution of the other major currencies.

Patience is the order of the day and funds kept in US dollars are the current outperformers. Use this time to analyze and research the stocks that you would like to own and formulate a short list that you can manage and keep up with once you have made the purchase. Our watch list is huge but if we had to move tomorrow we have identified around 20 stocks that we would be happy to own and we will continue with the due diligence as a week can be a long time in the life of a mining company.

We currently retain 70% of our funds in dollars and are glad we did so as they have strengthened considerably which should enable us to purchase more stocks and or gold and silver when the bargains present themselves.

Stay flexible and don’t be afraid to place the occasional short trade as and when the market is overbought. These trades may take time to eventuate, but when the outlook in the short term is bleak the risk/reward environment is favorable.

Finally, go gently and only deploy small amounts of capital until a new direction is confirmed, we all need to be able to take a hit and live to fight another day.

Got a comment, then please fire it in whether you agree with us or not, as the more diverse comments we get the more balance we will have in this debate and hopefully our trading decisions will be better informed and more profitable.

Go gently.

Disclaimer: www.goldprices.biz or makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents our views and replicates trades that we are making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered adviser to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future success.

Silver is a Special Metal

It always has been. And on a value basis, it’s also a good buy. Silver has been chugging more than gold but once it pops up, it could take off like a bandit.

There are many reasons why silver will go higher and it’s just a matter of time. And as our dear friend Richard Russell points out, JP Morgan is aggressively accumulating physical silver by the hundreds of millions of ounces.

This is the largest accumulation of physical silver by a private entity in history!

Plus, it’s three times the 100 million ounces acquired by the Hunt Brothers in 1980 or by Warren Buffet in 1998.

Some of you may remember when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market at the peak in 1980 when silver soared to the $50 level. It was a wild moment. And today is even more wild.

Headed Higher

JP Morgan obviously thinks silver is going up, and we do too. We think your patience today will be well rewarded in a future rise.

Alan Greenspan also believes gold will be considerably higher in the years ahead. So it’s not only central bankers who are looking ahead. Others are too.

Chart 1 shows silver close up since 2013. It has steps, like gold, as you can see. Keep an eye on these levels as they’ll tell the story.

37768

First of all, it’s important for silver to continue holding above its seven month support at $15.40. If it then rises and stays above both its old 2013 support and 65 week moving average at $18.50 and $18.20, it’ll start on a bullish path.

Silver could then jump up to the $22 -$24 levels, its next step. By then, it could clearly test the $30, which would be the following step.

The bottom line is, silver has great potential and it appears to be leading the other metals.

Gold Miners Fail at 200-day Moving Average

Last week we wrote that the precious metals complex had not broken out yet and had more work to do before it could attempt a true breakout. The metals had some more upside and so did the shares. However, the poor performance of the shares this past week could warn of a larger reversal.

We thought the gold miners could rally up to resistance at the 400-day moving average. Instead of pushing a bit higher, their rally reversed course at the 200-day moving average. Note the action since last summer. The miners had a strong rally up to the 400-dma and later recovered to both moving averages when they were quite close in January. This recent rally did not reach the 400-dma and that signals weakness.

may22.2015gdx

GDX Daily

The weakness in the shares is a warning sign for the entire complex and could also be a signal that the metals have not bottomed yet. Over the past eight months Gold and Silver have essentially traded in a tight range (except for several weeks). Gold has spent most of that period between $1150 and $1225 while Silver has spent most of that time between $15.50 and $17.50. The metals’ failure to extend recent strength could signal a move down to the bottom of those ranges and threaten a breakdown.

may22.2015gs

Gold & Silver Weekly

Last week we noted that gold miners would only truly breakout (above their 80-week moving averages) if metals were to surpass their January highs.

I’m skeptical metals will do that on this rebound as their relative performance is weak considering the big drop in the US$. The worst is likely over for the miners but if Gold can’t reach or takeout its January high then the miners are at risk for remaining in the range they have been in for the past eight months. Until something changes, buying support and oversold conditions works better than chasing strength.

GDX has 12% downside to strong support and 17% downside to its daily low. Be patient and use support to your advantage. If metals are heading to new lows then it would likely create one last chance to buy miners at fire sale prices. Consider learning more about our premium service including our current favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in the second half of 2015.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com