Gold & Precious Metals

Precious metals have rebounded strongly over the past week, following comments from the Federal Reserve. While the FED dropped the word “patient” from their statement last week in relation to raising interest rates, Yellen clarified that removing the term patient does not mean the Fed is impatient. To the contrary, the FED plans to remain “highly accommodative” even after the first rate hike occurs.

….continue reading & view chart HERE

SocGen’s Ultra Bearish Gold and Silver Outlook

41018301 H1073725-Large-500x333Analysts at the French Bank Societe Generale (SocGen) in their latest research report have forecast that the gold price, having given away all its early year gains, was headed sharply lower, as it saw the dollar continue its gain in strength. They thus expected the bear market in gold to continue further and saw the price as falling to average only $925 an ounce between 2016 and 2019. The timing of this report was perhaps unfortunate in that the forecast for a virtually immediate downturn in gold, together with dollar strength, predated the events of the past few days, which has seen the reverse occur. Gold bulls will be fervently hoping that the bank’s analysts are equally incorrect in their forecast of gold’s longer-term prospects.

While the bank actually raised its average forecast for the current year to $1,130/oz from its earlier $1,025/oz because of the higher than expected gold price performance during Q1,  it expects the price…..

…..continue reading HERE

  1. On March 20, 2015, global gold price discovery changed. Transparency was introduced to the London gold market, as the new “LBMA Gold Price” was launched. 
  2. In my professional opinion, the changes in London are ushering in an entire new era of gold price stability, consistency, and transparency, and that will attract large money managers to this spectacular asset.
  3. The tortoise always beats the hare. Allow me to elaborate: while net gains of $1 – $2 a day in the price of gold may seem boring, with roughly 250 trading days in a year, that can translate into price appreciation of $250 – $500. 
  4. When the Western fear trade dominated gold, the London gold price was set by shadowy figures making private telephone calls to each other. Volatility was huge, and many money managers used large bank loans to make leveraged bets on the price.  
  5. Now, the Eastern love trade is starting to overwhelm the fear trade. It’s a theme that will probably accelerate very dramatically in the second half of this year. 
  6. Also, the transparency in London will attract unleveraged money managers that take a very long term approach to their investments, with a focus on gold stocks.
  7. Without the Eastern love trade, gold probably would trade in the $700 – $1000 area, if another financial crisis didn’t occur. That’s because Western fear traders simply don’t buy enough tonnage to overwhelm mine and scrap supply, except in the most extreme and temporary situations. 
  8. In contrast, the Eastern love trade should produce consistent 5% – 15% annual gold price appreciation, with very limited volatility, for decades to come. I expect to see gold stocks make a “stealth” change over the next 1 -2 years, from being the most hated asset class in the world, to one of the most respected.
  9. Please  click here now. That’s the daily chart for gold. There’s a strong possibility that an inverse head and shoulders bottom is forming now.
  10. Gold may react a bit here in the $1190 area, because of minor trend sell-side HSR (horizontal support and resistance). After the pause/pullback, I expect the rally to continue. Gold should reach $1220, before another pause in the upside action occurs.
  11. Please  click here now. That’s the seasonal chart, courtesy of Dimitri Speck. Clearly, gold needs to be accumulated, on any short term weakness.
  12. There’s more good news in the immediate term, for gold price enthusiasts. March 26 is option expiry day for the COMEX April gold contract. That’s just two days from now, and gold often tends to rally after the options expire.
  13. I recently swapped some gold for silver. Silver is referred to as a “game” by many hedge fund managers, but I think they may need to reconsider the use of that moniker. That’s because the increased transparency in the London market applies to silver as well as gold. 
  14. Please  click here now. That’s the daily chart for silver. There’s a great breakout in play, from a bull wedge pattern. Silver could reach the $18.50 area quite quickly, once the March 26 option expiry day is in the past. Traders should book decent profits in the $17.50 – $18.50 zone.
  15. A lot of analysts believe that Chinese gold demand is much higher than is reported in the mainstream media. I think they may be looking at a tree, rather than the forest. Here’s why:
  16. The London gold market needed to be overhauled, and it was, but Shanghai also lacks transparency. A new “Shanghai Gold Fix” should be operational before this year ends, and I expect it to feature the same transparency that now exists in London.
  17. Once the Shanghai market becomes as transparent as London, there will tremendous pressure on the New York COMEX directors, and on US commodity regulators, to bring that market to the level of excellence showcased in London and Shanghai. In 2016, Dubai should also get recognition as another major centre of transparent gold price discovery.
  18. Most investors in the gold community believe America will experience another major financial crisis that will result in tremendous money printing, and higher gold prices. Financial meltdowns will occur repeatedly in the future, but when the next one will actually arrive, is perhaps more difficult to discern than most analysts are willing to admit. 
  19. What is crystal clear, is that the general industrialization of China and India, regardless of economic cycles, is a long term process that is increasing gold demand from both Chindian citizens and central banks. With gold markets around the world entering a fabulous new era of “growth with transparency”, gold stocks are poised to receive enormous inflows of institutional capital. 
  20. On that note, please  click here now. GDX is a key holding for me. This daily chart shows the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator in rising mode, with the lead line only at about 38. There’s plenty of room for higher prices before that key oscillator becomes overbought. I think GDX can reach $23.40 if gold reaches $1250. If gold can reach the recent highs of about $1308, GDX should trade near the summer highs in the $27 zone.
  21. Please  click here now. That’s the daily chart of the Australian dollar, against its US counterpart. There’s a key breakout in play. Please  click here now. Australia is viewed as part of the Western world, but its geographic location force the country to benefit from the staggering growth occurring in China and India.
  22. A rally in the Australian dollar at the same time as Australian gold stocks rally could create substantial profits for investors based outside of Australia. On that note,  click here now. That’s the daily chart for Newcrest, one of the world’s top ten gold producers. 
  23. The company has roughly a twenty-five year mine life, which should produce enormous returns for shareholders, in the Chindian-based “gold bull era”. I recommended buying the stock at $13, $12.25, and $11.50, and two of those three buy points were hit, before the stock blasted higher in the past few days. Still, I will caution traders not to get greedy; some profits should be booked, as the stock approaches the $14.50 area.
  24. As this year proceeds, I think Western gold stock investors will find themselves in a fresh new mindset. Fear of lower prices and demands for much higher ones will be replaced with strong confidence, as gold stocks stage a “choo choo train” advance on the price grid, to nicely higher prices! 

Mar 24, 2015
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com 
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com

Tuesday Mar 24, 2015
Special Offer for Money Talks readers
: Send an email to freereports@gracelandupdates.comand I’ll send you my free “Top Gold Guns!” report. I highlight three “movers and shakers” in the GDXJ ETF, and three in the GDX ETF. These six stocks should add firepower to any gold investor’s portfolio, and I highlight key buy and sell points for each stock!

About Stewart Thomson:

Stewart is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable reading time.

Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an invetor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:

Momentum has been building amongst gold stocks this week. With gauges like the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index up 9% over the last week of trading.

The interesting thing is, this rebound has come with very little movement in the gold price itself. As I write, bullion is languishing below $1,190 per ounce.

But a few events are on the horizon that could really give gold investors something to cheer about. In some of the largest consuming nations on the planet.

A prime example being regulatory changes announced last week in the world’s top gold buyer, China. Which should go a long way toward increasing bullion demand in this part of the world.

China’s central bank and customs authority jointly released rules last week that will allow a wider range of market players to import gold into the country. Giving authorization to some mining and smelting companies, as well as coin-makers and banks, to ship bullion across the borders.

The move is reportedly part of a push from Beijing to expand China’s overall gold trade. And better link the mainland gold market to other buyers around the world.

At the same time, things are remaining challenging in the world’s number-two gold consumer: India. Where regulators took a step backward last week in freeing up gold imports.

India’s Reserve Bank said that jewellery-makers and other gold consumers who want to bring gold into the country will have to make full payment prior to receiving their shipments. Previously, banks and other gold importers had simply been shipping in bullion and then allowing buyers to make payment once the bullion arrived in country.

With consumers now required to make full payment up front, buying will likely be reduced. Leaving the market to wonder when India might return to a fully-liberal gold market — allowing free import of the metal into this key consuming nation.

We’ll see which of these factors is stronger in affecting global prices. Watch for ongoing changes in both of these critical jurisdictions.

Here’s to freeing things up,

Dave Forest

Gold Market Update

Originally published March 22nd, 2015.

The immediate outlook for gold has improved dramatically following the dollar’s topping action of recent days after the Fed was rumbled, and the vast improvement in the COT structure of the past 2 weeks. While the negative outlook set out in the last update could yet come to pass in the event of a deflationary implosion – and remains a risk until gold breaks out of the downtrend shown here on our 8-year chart – latest COTs certainly suggest that the risk has been averted for now. In anticipation of the dollar reversing after the Fed meeting, we liquidated our PM sector short positions for a profit on the site and reversed to long, and the way things are shaping up we won’t need to close our long positions for a while.

On our 8-year chart for gold we can see that to erase the bearish scenario shown associated with a deflationary implosion, gold has simply to break up upside from the long-term downtrend shown, which wouldn’t take all that much of a rally from here. Latest COTs suggest that is about to attempt to do this. If the dollar index, shown at the top of this chart, is indeed burning out here, then gold is likely to get a powerful boost going forward as the dollar retreats.

37060 a

On the short-term 6-month gold chart we can see recent action in more detail. On this chart we can see how gold started to rally immediately after the Fed and it has already succeeded in breaking out from the shorter-term downtrend in force from mid-January. Although the breakout from this downtrend is still only marginal, which normally would lead us to expect some backing and filling, the now highly favorable COT suggests that it will soon get on with it and continue higher.

37060 b

Now we come to the all-important COT. A reader once wrote in and asked “How can you trust the COTs when they could be rigged?” My response to this was simply to say that I would continue to trust them until they don’t work any more, and in any case they don’t need to rig data like this, because the fact is that most market participants are too dumb to use it. Anyway, the latest COT shows a dramatic scaling back of both Commercial short and Large Spec long positions over the past of couple of weeks, which indicates that the Large Specs have “thrown in the towel” in disgust, as they have a habit of doing at market bottoms, while the Commercials are clearly getting out the way ahead of a rally. The last time the COT was this positive was at gold’s November low.

37060 c

The Gold Hedgers chart, which is a form of COT chart, also shows a dramatic improvement to readings which usually precede a rally.

37060 d

The Gold Optix chart has in recent weeks collapsed back to an extremely low level, and is approaching record pessimistic readings, which of course is another positive sign.

37060 e

The habitually wrong Rydex Traders holdings in the Precious Metals sector have just hit a new record low, which is another sign of a negative extreme.

37060 e2

It was a momentous week for the dollar, a week in which the global investment community just started to grasp that the Fed has been playing them for suckers. This is a slow process, like watching Stan Laurel, the notoriously thick partner in the famous Laurel & Hardy comedy duo, slowly grasping some truth. What the Fed has done has been to dangle the carrot of the prospect of higher interest rates in the US in front of global investors seeking higher returns, both to mitigate the damage caused by their extensive QE programs (as in “Let’s get these stupid foreigners to pick up the tab”) and to suck capital into the US to keep its stockmarkets levitated, because gains in US stockmarkets have augmented by rises in the dollar, creating a virtuous circle for investors in US markets. The only problem with this is that it works until it doesn’t. What happened last week was that investors started to rumble that the Fed has no intention of raising rates to any significant degree – it can’t anyway because it is boxed in – and instead of the 2% – to 3% that they were expecting they will end up maybe with 0.5% to 1.00%. This became obvious when the Fed removed the word “patient” from their statement and then Yellen tried to limit the damage by saying that removal of the word “patient” didn’t mean that they were becoming impatient. This double speak has made it plain the game they are playing with the markets.

Anyway – the jig is up – investors are starting to grasp that the rate rises they were looking forward to in the US simply aren’t going to materialize, just some token rises to spin them along. This means that the dollar has either peaked is in a topping out process. You may recall in the last update that we said that the dollar index could get out as high as 120, in the circumstance of an immediate deflationary implosion. This now looks highly unlikely in view of the latest dollar and gold COT and sentiment data, and especially after the Fed “tipping its hand” last week. Action in the dollar and dollar proxies suggest that it has topped out, or at best is in the process of doing so, which could involve marginal new highs.

Accordingly, we have removed our admittedly rather outlandish target of 120 from the 20-year dollar index chart shown below, and it looks like the dollar has now peaked at “round number” resistance at 100. This would not be really surprising given that it is at its 2nd most overbought level for the last 20 years after its amazing ramp of the past 9 months.

37060 f

On its 6-month chart we can see how the dollar’s rise became parabolic ahead of the Fed meeting, resulting in it becoming critically overbought on its RSI and extremely overbought on its MACD indicator. Seeing this we reversed position on the site into PM sector triple leveraged bull ETFs just ahead of the Fed, a gambit that has worked out well so far. Before leaving this chart note the anomalous intraday plunge by the dollar to its 50-day moving average on Wednesday which is thought to be a data glitch.

37060 g

The chart for UUP, a dollar bull ETF, is useful as it enables us to see that the intraday plunge by the dollar on Wednesday mentioned above was indeed a data glitch, as UUP did not make the same move. Another advantage conferred by looking at the UUP chart is that it has volume, which the dollar index chart doesn’t, and it enables us to see that there was a stampede for the exits immediately following the Fed, which of course has bearish implications. Fortunately we were able to front run this mob.

37060 h

It’s a case of laugh or cry when you see the dollar Hedgers and Optix charts shown below. Starting with the latest Hedgers chart, which is a form of COT chart, we see that it has dropped to crazy record short readings as Smart Money has piled on the shorts as the dollar went parabolic ahead of the Fed meeting. Just going on this chart, the dollar will be toast before much longer.

37060 i

The dollar optix, or optimism index shows that bullish sentiment towards the dollar was flirting was record extremes going into the Fed meeting, another indication that it is burning out.

37060 j