Gold & Precious Metals
Briefly: In our opinion (half) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are now justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Gold and the rest of the precious metals market moved higher on Friday and the volume was not low. It was lower (for the GLD ETF) than what we had seen during Thursday’s decline, so there are some bearish implications. But are they really that important? Let’s take a closer look (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Click chart to enlarge:
The very short-term trend remains down (based on July highs), so we can’t say that a lot changed. The analysis of price and volume provides us with bearish implications even though the last move was down. The GLD ETF closed slightly below the 300-day moving average (spot gold closed above it). Gold is declining also today – clearly the short-term trend remains down.
From the long-term perspective – and comparing gold’s performance to that of the bond market – the situation remains bearish.
Gold is already very close to its previous lows. It would now take only a little more weakness for gold to break below them, which would likely start a sizable downswing.
In the case of mining stocks, the short-term trend is more horizontal, but it’s still pointing downward. The volume here was a bit higher on Friday than during the previous daily decline, and it’s a bullish sign. If miners continue to show strength, it might suggest that we will see another rally before a bigger decline.
The situation on the USD Index chart is bullish, but we see some caution signs as well. The RSI indicator is above the 70 level, which has previously meant that a local top would be seen shortly. In fact, it was the proximity of this level that was followed by declines, and at this time the U.S. currency is even more overbought – it’s more overbought than it’s been in a year. What we wrote previously about the possible implications remains up-to-date:
We could see a pause here, but we could also see another visible move higher followed by a correction close to the cyclical turning point (meaning in a week or so).
On a different note, we have quite a few new subscribers that joined us recently (thank you), so we think that emphasizing our overall approach toward the gold and silver markets is in order, especially given that we have been bearish on this sector for many months (more or less since April 2013 after being medium-term bullish for years, with only minor exceptions).
In other words, we are gold fans, but not fanatics. We don’t act in the best interest of gold or silver producing companies. We act in your best interest. We are neither permabulls nor permabears. We don’t believe blindly in gold or any other asset class. We are not against any particular asset class either. We strive to look at the world in the most unbiased way possible (please note that we don’t accept any advertising on our website in order to prevent any conflict of interest), then combine it with our experience in the precious metals market, trading in general and all other linked areas, and provide the outcome of our analysis to you – our subscribers and readers – in order to make your investments and trades more profitable and to help you grow money over time.
At this time, based on the analysis of various fundamental factors including the low interest rates and Quantitative Easing programs, we think that gold and silver are poised to move higher in the coming years. However, markets are only logical and do what they are “supposed to do” in the long run (counting in years, not months or days). We also realize that markets don’t move in one way only – at times even the markets with the most favorable outlook have to correct or decline. In the medium term and especially in the short and very short term, markets are not logical, but emotional. They are also vulnerable to big entities moving the market with sudden sales of assets. Did the fundamental situation change for gold in 2008? No, but it declined very significantly nonetheless. It moved back up and rallied much above the previous high, but not before declining sharply and significantly.
At this time, even though we like gold and silver as very long-term investments, we don’t think that the medium-term decline is already over. We like gold, but based on the information that we have available today, it seems likely to us that it will need to move even lower before it starts its next big upswing.
Summing up, it seems to us that the situation in the precious metals market remains bearish, but it improved a bit based on Friday’s session. While the USD Index is visibly above the June high, gold is not below its June low. This strength could be meaningful, or it could be the case that the metals’ reaction is just delayed. Please note that the major breakdown in the Euro Index has just materialized and it’s quite likely to impact the precious metals market negatively in the coming weeks and months. The short-term outlook for the USD Index is rather mixed. The medium-term trend is down, but the currency is strongly overbought in the short term and the turning point is just around the corner.
While we continue to think that the medium-term trend remains down for gold, silver and mining stocks, the odds for a move higher in the coming days somewhat increased based on the sector’s strength on Friday and the overbought situation in the USD Index. It seems to us that decreasing the size of the short position (at this time the silver market provided the biggest gains) in the sector is now justified from the risk/reward perspective.
To summarize:
Trading capital (our opinion): Short (half) position in gold, silver and mining stocks with the following stop-loss levels:
Gold: $1,353
Silver: $21.73
GDX ETF: $28.30
Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions
Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position
Thank you.
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments – SunshineProfits.com
Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment – SunshineProfits.DE
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Disclaimer
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
In this Weekend Report I would like to show you an in-depth look at two important precious metals stock indexes, the GDM and GDXJ. The reason I want to show you these two PM stock indexes is because they correspond with the 3 X leveraged etf’s, GDM for NUGT and the GDXJ for JUNG that we are currently trading. Last week seemed like the end of the world to a lot of the gold bugs as the PM complex had a decent sell off causing much pain for those holding on the long side. If you’ve been in the markets for any length of time you know there usually no gain without some pain. It just goes with the territory. We’ll look at the very short term to the long term charts, looking for clues that may shed some light on the future direction for the precious metals complex, at least for the short to intermediate term horizons. Lets start with the 2 hour look at GDM that is showing a some what unconventional consolidation pattern, a six point Diamond. Normally when an area of congestion is taking place and there are no obvious consolidation patterns forming I begin to look at the more obscured patterns such as a Diamond or a Roof pattern. When a Diamond is forming there is usually a big decline in the middle of the pattern that generally expands on the left side and contacts on the right side. As you can see on the 2 hour chart below reversal points #1 and #2 are start the expansion. Reversal points #3 and #4 show the longest point in the Diamond with reversal points #5 and #6 contracting like a triangle. The price action actually broke above the top trendline on the right side of the chart late in the day on Friday. You can see the indicators on the right side of the chart are all in bullish configuration in this 2 hour chart.
*Note: It is best to view this article with full size charts HERE – Money Talks Editor
….view this article with full size charts HERE
The Obama administration is becoming quite critical of US corporations acquiring foreign firms in order to relocate their tax domicile to a country with a more favorable regime. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew suggested American companies that have done so or are thinking about doing this lack a sense of economic patriotism. In his opinion, American corporations should not take advantage of the benefits of doing business in the United States and utilize loopholes in the US system in order to write down their tax liabilities. The President joined the chorus this week suggesting “some people are calling these companies corporate deserters.”
They’re both wrong.
US corporations are abiding by the current tax legislation that is in place. It’s simplistic and absurd to suggest they have a patriotic responsibility towards the United States. In fact, management of these corporations do have a responsibility, and that is after considering their stakeholders like their employees, suppliers, and customers, they are responsible to their shareholders. Thus, one would imagine US lawmakers would need to ensure that the United States is a competitive nation in terms of offering a favorable corporate tax rate that provides US business with the right incentives, but not put the onus on them to do ‘what’s right for America.’
For this, there is no question broad based corporate tax reform is desperately needed. It is evident from the fact that an additional 25 major US companies are considering relocating overseas by the end of this year in order to take advantage of a smaller tax bill. Senate Democrats have proposed raising the foreign ownership threshold required of a US company to re-domicile their tax base from 20 per cent to 50 per cent. Despite being backed by the current administration, this is not the solution. It is simply a Band-Aid fix, and one might even suggest that if such a significant tax advantage still exists, US corporations would flee more capital from the United States to acquire larger shares of foreign companies.
As The Economist points out, there are two major flaws with America’s tax code. First, on paper America’s corporate tax rate is 35%, which is the highest amongst the 34 member countries in the OECD, but their effective tax rate is less than the OECD average thanks to a laundry list of aimless loopholes. This alone illustrates the complexities and resulting inefficiencies in their tax code. The second is that the US taxes income regardless in which country it is earned, but doesn’t collect until funds are brought back to the US. This creates yet another disincentive to repatriate foreign profits and the consequence is less investment in the US.
If the US government wants better corporate participation at home, then it behooves them to rewrite the tax code. Ultimately, this is what will incentivize these same US companies that hold profits overseas to bring those profits home and lead to the positive contributions to the American domestic economy.
About Border Gold Corp
Border Gold Corp. (BGC) is one of Canada’s leading silver and gold dealers. Over the years BGC has become one of the largest Royal Canadian Mint direct distributor in Canada. Under the leadership and ownership of Michael Levy, BGC continues to provide clients with the best customer experience in the industry.
BGC is able to offer its clients a variety of investment bullion products. Our relationship with the Mint and other large-scale distributors allows us to consistently offer clients among the best pricing in the industry. If you’re looking to buy gold and silver, or sell it, we can help. Learn more about our services here.
BGC’s goal is to build long-term loyalty with our clients through outstanding service, above and beyond that which is offered at other financial institutions and gold dealers, a mantra of our company for over 44 years. Transactions and shipping are always conducted in a private and secure fashion.
Located in White Rock, British Columbia, Canada, Border Gold is just 6 miles from the Canada – U.S. Border. We have immediate shipping and receiving facilities on both sides of the border to facilitate both Canadian and American clients. All administrative offices and records are in Canada, and the privacy and security of our clients is a constant priority of our business.
Today KWN is putting out a special piece which features three charts showing the roadmap to a historic move in gold, silver, and the shares. These are the types of charts that the big banks follow closely, as well as big money and savvy professionals. David P. out of Europe sent us the remarkable charts that all KWN readers need to see. There is also a bonus piece included from legendary Art Cashin.
Below are the extraordinary gold charts sent to KWN by David P. out of Europe along with his commentary.
….go HERE to read & view
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I've started managing my own investments so view Michael's site as a one-stop shop from which to get information and perspectives.
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Michael offers easy reading, honest, common sense information that anyone can use in a practical manner.
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A sane voice in a scrambled investment world.
~ Ed R.
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