“This could turn into a very violent wake-up call for [screen-traded gold]. People talk about ‘fiat currencies’, but we also have ‘fiat gold.’ Volatility is too cheap right now.” — Gold refiner quoted by John Dizard in his Financial Times column this weekend

In the initial Reuters report on the London-Zurich-Hong Kong-Shanghai gold pipeline, Macquarie gold analyst Matthew Turner suggested that the 1016 metric tonne United Kingdom export (up from 85 tonnes the previous year) might have been shipped to Switzerland for refining into “smaller bars more attractive to Asian consumers or to be vaulted there instead.” Though vaulting cannot be ruled out, the recasting explanation makes considerably more sense given the times and the extraordinary amount of gold being imported by China – over 1500 tonnes so far this year according to research published by the Koos Jansen website. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which China would be interested in vaulting gold in the West – particularly at a time when the West is experiencing difficult financial and economic circumstances.

….read Fiat Currency, Fiat Gold & Final Note HERE

Many events moved the market this month.  Gold demand was stable but more important, gold is getting a boost from the weaker U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar is now clearly bearish, and since gold and the U.S. dollar generally move in opposite directions, this is very bullish for gold.  So is the fact the Fed’s QE stimulus is currently expected to continue well into 2014.

Plus, gold tends to rise every time Congress raises the U.S. debt ceiling. And with the debt ceiling recently lifted, gold is indeed looking upward.

GOLD’S BIG PICTURE

While gold has been much stronger than most currencies over the past 12 years, it still hasn’t compared to the grand rise in the 1970s.

Chart 1 shows the gold price since 1969.  Back then, gold rose 2300% in 10 years, from 1970 to 1980.  The blow-off peaks were clearly pronounced. But this time around, the gold rise has been moderate in comparison.

Gold had a steady 10 year rise from 2001 to 2011 and it gained 661%. That wasn’t shabby by any means, but it certainly wasn’t like the 1970s. 

As you can see, gold’s leading indicator reached a normal high area during the 2001-2011 rise. But the spike peaks to blow off high areas seen in the 1970s are still to come.

Many are comparing today’s decline to the 1976 decline.  Then, gold gave back 50% after rising about 460% from 1970 -74.  Today, gold has given back 36% of its 661% rise.

However, the troubled world we live in is proving plenty of ammunition to say a rise similar to the 1976-80 rise could still be ahead of us.

In addition, gold’s leading indicator is currently at a major low area. In other words, gold is bombed out and very oversold, reinforcing the likelihood of an upcoming sustained rise.

For now though, we’ll take gold’s renewed upmove one step at a time…

Much will tell us the direction over the next month or two.  We’re currently in a seasonally strong month for the metals and a rise, even if it’s not a strong leg upward, should continue to be promising.

TIMING IS KEY

This is where gold timing comes in.

Gold has been forming a good looking base since reaching its closing low above $1200 on June 27.  And it’s becoming more important for this low area to hold (see Chart 2A).

As long as it does, the market will be fine.

This chart shows the major steps in the market. The green line shows the $1200 low.  And if it holds, as most indicators suggest, we could next see gold rise to the $1536 – $1540 area.

This is a key level.  It’s the old support and the 65-week moving average.

If gold fails to break above this level, the bear will not be out of the woods. But if it’s clearly surpassed, we could then see the $1700 level tested and possibly the old highs revisited!

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Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter named 2010 Letter of the Year by MarketWatch, which provides specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com

The bear market in precious metals equities will end soon, says Jordan Roy-Byrne, editor and publisher of The Daily Gold Premium, perhaps even by the end of the year. But the rising tide will not lift all juniors equally. In this interview with The Gold Report,Roy-Byrne explains why bottom-fishing is a bad idea and why the savvy investor must find companies that will not just survive but thrive when the bears become bulls.

The Gold Report: The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, worries about the world sliding back into recession. What are the chances of that?

Jordan Roy-Byrne: We tend to have recessions every four or five years, on average. In the last 30 or 40 years, however, recessions have been less frequent than the average, due to extremely expansionary monetary policy. But another recession is almost a certainty in the next couple of years. I expect it will be milder than the 2008 recession. Typically, after such a severe recession or financial crisis the next recession is quite mild in comparison.

TGR: We seem to have permanent quantitative easing in the U.S. Do you think there’s a point when the country will hit a debt wall?

JRB: I don’t know if the U.S. will ever hit a debt wall. We have the world’s reserve currency, and that’s not going to change any time soon. We have the ability to print a lot of money, and there’s always going to be demand for our bonds. If that demand wanes, I think we will see central banks increase their buying. They will buy every bond if they have to in order to prevent interest rates from rising.

Looking out over the next five years, I see similarities to the 1940s after World War II when there was essentially huge quantitative easing and interest rate price fixing. This was done to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio. There were a couple of recessions, but when the economy grew, it grew very strongly. There was quite a bit of inflation, that was the negative consequence, but the debt-to-GDP ratio did begin to decline.

The problem with debt is not the nominal amount. The problem is when the economy doesn’t grow fast enough to service the debt. One way to deal with that problem is to keep interest rates extremely low so there is very high nominal growth. The drawback to this is inflation. Commodity prices in the mid-to-late 1940s escalated substantially. I think we could see similarities in the next five years.

TGR: We’ve seen for some time an inverse relationship between precious metal stocks and equities in general. Do you think this will continue? Must equities fall before gold and silver stocks rise?

JRB: I do think this relationship will continue. Historically, gold stocks have performed fantastically at times when equities are in a bear market. The two best examples are 1972–1974 and 2000–2003. Because the gold bugs have lost a lot of money and don’t have the firepower to drive the market higher right now, outside money is going to have to come in. I think once conventional investments weaken, which I expect to happen in the next three to six months, asset managers will look to precious metals. For example, there were quite a few generalists and international fund managers at the recent Denver Gold Forum.

TGR: How long will this bear market in precious metal stocks last?

JRB: It could already be over. Gold and gold stocks have been in a bear market for two years and two months but silver, silver stocks and juniors peaked in April 2011 and have been in a bear market for 2.5 years. History shows that bear markets in the gold stocks tend to average 65%, while the two worst were 72%. At the June low the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) was down 67%. That tells us the market is likely very close to a low or has already bottomed.

The market is retesting its summer low. Some stocks have already bottomed. Some will make double bottoms, and the worst will make new lows. That’s just how a bottom is—disjointed. The major bottoms in 2000 and 2008 occurred in October–November, so we are right on schedule.

TGR: How strong will the recovery be?

JRB: The recovery will be fantastic because that’s what always happens in this sector. Looking at recoveries from major bottoms starting from 1960, the average recovery for large gold stocks was 58% over the first four months and 75% over the first seven months. My guess is that the next recovery will be stronger than average, but the problem is we don’t know when it will start. It could be late November or even January. It could have started already. In the summer rally, Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) rebounded 59% from its low in only two months. Odds are, many stocks could be up 40–50% before most realize a bottom is in.

TGR: Could you talk about relative strength analysis and its importance to the valuation of precious metal stocks?

JRB: Relative strength analysis is a type of technical analysis that compares one security or market to another. We use this analysis to spot market leaders and market laggards. We want to own the leaders and avoid the laggards, obviously. You don’t necessarily want to chase the strongest stocks. There’s an art to it. My view is you want to identify what the strongest stocks are when the sector is correcting, and you want to buy them when they are correcting.

For example, the market has been correcting for the last several weeks, and this may continue for another week or two. So, if you happen to like a stock that has performed really well and you haven’t bought it yet, maybe in the next week or two that stock will come down another 5%, 10% or 15%, and that gives you the opportunity to buy it.

TGR: You’ve written that buying a weak stock on the dip is not a good idea. In a time of bottoming stocks, however, there is a great temptation to go bottom fishing. How do investors distinguish between stocks that are truly undervalued and those that have fallen for good reason?

JRB: Mining companies—95% of them, anyway—are not like blue chip stocks. A lot of these companies that have declined 80% can end up declining 99%. Relative strength analysis should be used in conjunction with fundamental analysis. For example, you may really like a company, but if it’s badly underperforming the sector, that is a warning sign.

A recent example is Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG:TSX; PVG:NYSE). It was very strong during the summer rebound, but at the end of August some huge and consistent selling came in and it continued into September. It was one of the weakest stocks in September, ahead of its major decline. The warning signs were there.

TGR: Let’s look at the four big mining locations in North America: Nevada, Mexico, Ontario and Quebec. We’ll begin with Mexico. Which companies do you like there and why?

JRB: Some of the absolutely best companies are located in Mexico, and that should tell you something about Mexico as a jurisdiction. Two of the best are First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) and Argonaut Gold Inc. (AR:TSX). First Majestic put its Del Toro mine into production this year. It is ramping up steadily and will be the company’s largest mine. First Majestic continues to have a stronger growth outlook than all of its smaller former peers, which is quite amazing considering how strongly the company has grown already. One might expect its size to limit its growth. That’s not the case.

As far as relative strength goes, First Majestic has held up very well during this downturn compared to the majority of silver stocks. Typically, when silver rallies, First Majestic shares perform well. In the recent summer rally, shares went from $9 to $16. Again, this is quite amazing, considering that First Majestic is a billion-dollar company, not some tiny junior.

TGR: And Argonaut?

JRB: Argonaut has two growing mines in Mexico, La Colorada and El Castillo, and two strong development projects, San Antonio in Mexico and the recently acquired Magino project in Ontario. There could be permitting issues with San Antonio. It’s not going to be a slam dunk, but if Argonaut can get that mine into production before the end of 2014, it will have a growth profile basically unmatched by anyone in the industry. In addition, Argonaut has ongoing cash flow, a very strong cash position of around $140 million ($140M) and one of the best management teams in the industry.

TGR: Do you consider Argonaut to be an undervalued stock that’s likely to show a significant gain with the end of the bear market?

JRB: Yes. Argonaut’s relative strength has been very strong for the most part over the last year or two. In early July, its shares went from about $5 to more than $8, and I think we’re going to see a similar move when the bear market ends in the next few months.

Argonaut has the management, the capital and the projects to be a serious growth-oriented producer over the next three or four years. That’s why I call it a long-term gift.

TGR: What do you like in Nevada?

JRB: Nevada’s a great jurisdiction, both politically and geologically. Drill costs tend to be lower and deposits are easier to work with because so many projects are open pittable and heap leachable. There are two Nevada companies I like. The first is Corvus Gold Inc. (KOR:TSX). This is one of my absolute favorites right now. The company has a large gold deposit called North Bullfrog very close to Barrick Gold Corp.’s (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE) old Bullfrog mine.

Corvus’ main resource at North Bullfrog is moderately economic at current prices, but the real kicker is that it has been getting higher-grade intercepts at Sierra Blanca and especially Yellowjacket, and the metallurgy on the latter is very good. Corvus will be coming out with a new resource estimate by the end of 2013 or early 2014 and a preliminary economic assessment will follow. Yellowjacket is going to be part of a starter pit, and I believe the economics at these gold prices are going to be very favorable.

TGR: What is Corvus’ relative strength?

JRB: Its relative strength could be indicating that it has something very significant on its hands and that Yellowjacket is going to be worth quite a bit. Corvus is one of only three stocks in this sector trading above a rising 400-day moving average. It’s difficult to buy a stock that’s already gone up so much, but I think Corvus is going to perform very well in 2014. I think it has a good shot to be acquired.

TGR: What is your second Nevada pick?

JRB: As far as production stories go, Klondex Mines Ltd. (KDX:TSX; KLNDF:OTCBB) is one I’ve started following recently. With regard to relative strength, it has been one of the strongest stocks over the last six to nine months. If you like the fundamentals, you want to try to buy it on weakness. Klondex’s Fire Creek project looks to have outstanding potential. Grades have been spectacular; the company has a sizeable resource and it has been doing some bulk sampling, which I believe has gone pretty well.