Gold & Precious Metals

Despite gold being up 20 percent from its end of June lows, silver is really the big winner with its price in US dollars being up almost 32 percent (noted it fell greater than gold). Where we have seen huge selling in the ETF’s and record outflows of physical gold, silver ETF’s are yet to see outflows of metal as their remains a healthy demand. In fact, holdings of physical silver in ETF’s are up 6 percent this year, once again hitting record highs in August. 

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Five Ways To Play Gold and Silver: Part I

goldbullbearPrecious metals prices are perking up. That said, let’s devote some time to gold and silver.

Of course, the past two years have not been kind to our favorite precious metals. Gold is selling near $1,390 per ounce. Silver hovers near $24 per ounce. Both price levels are dramatically down from August 2011, when gold traded over $1,900 and silver was over $40.

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Gold, Debt Ceiling & Missiles

Gold-Season-Aug-29-530x314Gold is quickly catching up in erasing the damage from late spring-early summer as it completes 2 consecutive monthly rises and is the 2nd best performing commodity so far this quarter, up 14%  (after silver’s 20%).

The bearish case in gold has grown less straight forward than it was three months ago when US inflation drifted near 40-year lows and US-10-year yields drifted near 2.00%. Much has changed since then. The notion of Fed tapering is no longer regarded as a necessary threat to gold bulls and US dollar bears after the Fed has emphasized it will maintain accommodation for as long as it takes; and insisting rates aren’t rising before end of 2014.

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The perceived notion that there will now be US led military action against the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has investors going in to precious metals and other safe harbor assets ahead of Thursday, the expected date of a missile strike.

Spot gold held above 1400 since yesterday and has now gained 20 percent since the Comex low of 1180 USD/oz. on June 28 of this year.

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Another interesting event to watch play out in the gold market will be the strikes threatened by South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers. A little over a year ago we watched strikes at South Africa’s platinum mines have a huge influence in upticks in the spot price of platinum. Moreover, it’s important to note South Africa’s direct influence on the platinum market exceeds that of what their mining production contributes to the gold market. 

Following the sell off yesterday, markets look relatively stable this morning; however, this is pricing in some form of action in the Middle East tomorrow.

Crude oil, the world’s largest traded commodity will be the key market to watch as investors fear supply disruptions to trade routes through Egypt. The Suez Canal transports approximately 800 thousand barrels a day, and Suez-Mediterranean (Sumed) Pipeline Egypt’s main pipeline handles 1.7 million barrels.

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