Gold & Precious Metals

JUNIOR GOLD STOCKS – THE BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN FOUR YEARS…POSSIBLY EVER

There is an old saying: to “pound the table”. It essentially means to vehemently assert one’s position. I rarely pound the table. I am, as of today, pounding the table!  [Editor’s Note: The following post is by TDV Editor-in-Chief, Jeff Berwick]

I am talking about the junior gold stocks. Gold stocks in general, but especially the juniors.

To preface, those of you invested in these securities in 2008 remember the worst crash of all time: the crash of the junior gold stocks from a high on the TSX-Venture exchange (where most are traded) of over 3,000 to under 700 in less than a year.

juniorgold1

Just before 2009 was the last time I pounded the table (and the graph above shows that I was right).

I made many investments in that year that returned ludicrous gains. One in particular I remember was a private placement in Copper Fox (TSXV:CUU) at $0.07 with a full warrant at $0.10. A little more than two years later and it was trading above $2.60.

I thought I was doing well, but Mexican tomato magnate, Ernesto Echavarria, invested $6 million into the company a few months after I did at $0.056 with a full warrant at $0.075. If he sold at the top, that would mean a profit of approximately $400 million+ in less than two years. Not bad for a tomato guy.

These are the kind of gains possible when things are this bad in the sector, like they were in 2008.

2008 is very similar to today, especially when you look at the major gold stocks vis-à-vis gold bullion.

juniorgold2

In terms of the metal underlying these companies, it is just as bad now as it was in 2008.

But many things are different now than in 2008, most in favor of the gold stocks.

For one, the overall US stock market had collapsed right along with the gold stocks in 2008.

juniorgold3

Today, as you can see, that is definitely not the case with the Dow at new nominal highs.

Even more importantly, as you can see in the following chart, the true money supply growth in the US had almost reached 0% in 2006, which led to the 2008 collapse.

juniorgold4

Since then the money supply growth in the US has been above 10% per annum for a record period of time. In short, nominal collapses don’t happen when the money supply, prodded by Ben Bernanke and his most dovish speech of all time last week, is being goosed at these levels.

In the opinion of TDV, the reason the Dow is at record nominal levels is because most market participants have been fooled into believing that this fake money supply growth is real growth. In time, they will realize they’ve yet again been fooled by monetary inflation. When that happens, many of them will also realize what is really going on and gold will surge well over $2,000/oz. And, when that happens, many will be looking for ways to get “in” on the gold market and after seeing gold rise 50% in a short period of time they will look at other ways to play the gold market.

That’s when they will again look to the gold stocks and we will see a bubble for the record books.

This is truly a gift for those not already invested or not fully invested in the gold stocks. It will be a ride for the ages… all it takes is the cajones to pull the trigger. As someone who has been involved in these markets for the last twenty years, I am literally pounding the table for you to get in now.

I’M NOT THE ONLY ONE

TDV’s Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos, is considering upping our total portfolio allocation to gold juniors from 20% to 25% and downgrading cash. He’s been waiting for this opportunity. That is why he never had a large percentage of our portfolio in these stocks; he has been expecting and writing about a pullback in these stocks for the last two years.

Of course, Ed was restrained from outright selling these stocks due to TDV’s over-arching theme: we believe this financial and monetary system is heading toward The End Of The Monetary System As We Know It (TEOTMSAWKI) and, because of that, we never want to be fully out of this market.

TDV Golden Trader’s Senior Analyst, Vin Maru, is under no such constraints and he told his subscribers to sell all their trading positions in gold stocks in February of last year, almost perfectly picking the top of the short-term bull market in the TSX-Venture exchange of nearly 1,700. Today it sits perched just above 1,100.

Even Ed Bugos, who is more restrained in trading, had only recommended one gold stock in the last year fully expecting this dip.

Both he and Ed are now licking their lips. In fact, tonight, Ed Bugos is putting out an alert to TDV Premium Subscribers on an African junior gold stock currently sold down to $0.07 that he thinks is almost a sure-thing to go well above $0.20, and likely be a ten-bagger in the next year.

It takes a lot of courage to pound the table when a sector is so out of favor. But, it is made easier when you understand most of the market fundamentals that almost are sure to lead to a major resurgence in this sector.

If you’ve been waiting to get into this market, now is the time.

 

jeff-berwick-profile-photo2Anarcho-Capitalist.  Libertarian.  Freedom fighter against mankind’s two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks.  Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast.  Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world’s freedom, investment and gold conferences as well as regularly in the media.

 
 

Some people may look at the stock market and see economic recovery. Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management and Sprott Money looks at myriad other economic indicators and sees an economy still in decline. Despite his suspicions that central banks are keeping gold prices artificially low, he tells The Gold Report that he favors gold, platinum, palladium and especially silver, over the near and long term.

The Gold Report: The price of gold has dipped under $1,600/ounce ($1,600/oz); silver is below $30/oz. Is this a case of living by the sword and dying by the sword, where precious metals prices only go up in a bad economy and are doomed to languish when things go well?

Eric Sprott: That is an interesting question because I do not know what it means to go well these days. I see things going from bad to worse economically, and so do many others. You can feel the recessionary malaise setting in.

Weakness begets weakness, and there are only two ways to stop weakness: fiscal policy and monetary policy.

No one has any room for aggressive fiscal policy anymore. The U.S. is looking at sequestration. We just had a 2% tax increase. There is nothing left in the cupboard for fiscal stimulation. On the monetary side, we are at 0% interest rates, and we are printing money nonstop.

We are entering a period of steady decline in economic well-being, notwithstanding the suggestions of central planners that H2/13 will be great. They always say the second half will be great because they know the first half will not be.

TGR: In your opinion, what are the most important indicators of what is really happening in the economy?

ES: There are many indicators: rail car loadings, car sales, personal income, consumer sentiment, to name a few.

Granted, most of the consumer sentiment numbers have been OK, but a lot of those numbers follow in line with the stock market. Anyone who thinks that 70% of the population is better off has to be mistaken. The 2% increase in withholdings on someone’s salary implies a much bigger impact on his or her discretionary spending because a lot of spending is dedicated to things that do not change: mortgage payments, insurance costs, the cable bill. When you knock 2% off the top, it could affect discretionary spending by 4–5%.

The one indicator you do not want to watch is the stock market because it is part of the financial fabric that the central planners are desperately trying to hold together. Not a week goes by without a crisis. Four weeks ago, it was Banco Monte dei Paschi. Three weeks ago, the third largest bank in the Netherlands had to be bailed out. Now the largest homebuilder in Spain has declared bankruptcy.

TGR: Which takes us back to the first question: If there is no recovery and the economy is still languishing, why did gold and silver both drop last week?

ES: This will sound like a conspiracy theory, but unusual things are happening in the gold and silver markets.

For example, on Feb. 19, nearly an entire year’s supply of gold traded on the Comex in a single day. The same volume of silver trading happened on the commodities exchange. You and I both know that the people selling that much metal cannot deliver it because it is just not available. Yet somehow they are out there, pounding down these contracts and keeping the price suppressed.

I would hypothesize that the central bankers know their policy of printing money is the most irresponsible thing imaginable, and they are suppressing gold and silver prices to hide their irresponsibility. When one is printing that much money, gold and silver prices are the first things you would expect to rise. If we saw gold going to $2,000/oz, the price of oil would probably go to a new high and the price of agricultural commodities would go up. Then you would have a huge inflation problem on your hands.

Based on my research, I believe the Western central banks have been surreptitiously supplying gold to the market. I say this because the demands I see for physical gold are way beyond the supply of gold. The annual gold supply has not changed in 12 years, and demand just keeps increasing from China, India, the U.S. Mint and silver and gold coin sales; even the non-Western central banks are buying gold. Where is this gold coming from? I think the Western central banks are selling gold to keep the lid on the price so everyone thinks their monetary policies are benign. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

TGR: But wasn’t Feb. 15’s volume blamed in part on reports of a few large fund managers selling their gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

ES: That may very well have happened. A lot of these paper things trade together, and the gold in the ETFs is paper gold at best. I have serious reservations about whether there is actual physical gold in the gold ETFs.

When I see China buying 95 tons of gold in a month and I know that the world’s monthly production is only 180 tons, that represents half the gold. India bought 100 tons in January, more than 50% of the gold supply. Between China and India, they bought 100% of the available gold. So, where did the gold bought by the rest of the world come from? From the Western central banks, as far as I’m concerned.

TGR: Does this policy of suppressing the price of precious metals hold for silver, platinum and palladium as well and how is it affecting supply and demand in those metals?

ES: The monetary authorities have never really focused on platinum and palladium because they are more industrial metals and very few people watch their prices. We watch them now because we have a public platinum and palladium trust.

The platinum price has gone up and the paper markets are starting to get involved. I suspect that is because there are shortages of platinum and palladium. If their prices skyrocket, it might kick over into silver and gold. There are people willing to sell contracts for platinum and palladium, even though there will be shortages of both this year. It seems ridiculous to be shorting platinum and palladium, but these misplaced bets were probably placed for a reason: they do not want metals to look as if they could knock the cover off the ball and reveal what the real money printing has caused.

TGR: But would you not expect platinum and palladium to track with the economy and go up in a recovery, while gold would not do as well?

ES: Gold is more of an investment vehicle. About 90% of all gold produced each year is used for investment. And, yes, a lot of platinum and palladium are used for industrial purposes. The same is true of silver. When there is not very much available for investment, the investment demand for silver, platinum and palladium will make the difference.

In my view of the economy, industrial demand might decrease. But if that happens, we would go right back to the unresolved problem of all this outstanding debt. In a weak economy, people start questioning the value of the credits of the outstanding loans. We go back into the same banking crisis that we had in 2008, in which the banks would have failed had the government not stepped in. Now, government intervention is a regular occurrence.

TGR: You invest in equities and physical metals through your various funds and trusts. What do you consider to be a balanced portfolio in today’s world?

ES: You must have, at a minimum, 10% in gold and silver. I probably have 80% of my money in gold and silver. For my funds, I have 80% in gold and silver and equities.

Did you know that gold and gold shares represent 1% of all financial assets today? Some very mainstream people have come out in favor of gold recently.

TGR: How do you adjust your portfolio based on what is happening in the world?

ES: I do not adjust my portfolio. I take a long-term view of gold and silver. When I first got in the gold and silver markets, I could see that there should be a supply shortage. I never dreamed of the tailwinds provided by money printing and bank runs.

Your readers should ask themselves if, in a weakened economy, they would rather own a U.S. bond that yields 2%, a stock trading at a multiple of 15 or gold and silver, which are in bull markets already and undoubtedly will be up at the end of the year? The answer should be obvious.

TGR: What balance do you strike between the physical metal, the junior companies and the producing gold and silver companies?

ES: Our funds probably own one-third of their precious metal assets in physical bullion. Of course, we have $5 billion ($5B) in funds dedicated 100% to physical assets.

In the funds I manage, I am about one-third physical, one-third gold equities and one-third silver equities. Silver equity is way overweighted because the number of silver equities available is very small.

I think silver will outperform gold this year and for the next 10 years. I think silver should trade at a 16 to 1 ratio to gold; in other words, if gold is $1,600/oz, silver should be $100/oz; if gold goes up to $3,200/oz, silver should go to $200/oz. I am way more inclined to be involved in the silver space than the gold space, but I am involved in all of it, and that is what I would recommend.

However, people can make their own risk assessments. The risk in the gold equities is that they are leveraged to the gold price at least 2:1, if not 3:1. If gold goes up 10%, the equities go up 30%, and vice versa. Gold is a riskier bet, but if you believe in the thesis of gold going higher, it is a bet that has to win given the passage of time.

Precious metals investors are not going to win the game in the paper market. We have to win it in the physical market. More and more people are taking delivery of their physical gold.

TGR: This was supposed to be silver’s decade. Why is it still below $30/oz?

ES: Silver has had a good run. I think it started the decade at $20/oz, reached $50/oz and is now at $29/oz. A lot of money can and will be printed in the next seven years. There is lots of time for physical silver to prove that it was the investment of the decade.

TGR: Why is it so important where physical bullion is stored?

ES: There are examples of people thinking they owned gold when they did not.  If a fund’s physical assets are being stored with a financial counterparty that goes broke, the gold and silver will not be available. People should reduce their risk by buying it from a bullion dealer and either taking physical delivery or knowing where it is on deposit.

You want to own and store physical metal assets yourself or know that you have access to them. Our trusts, for example, are all redeemable in gold, silver, platinum and palladium. That requires investing in larger amounts. I think you have to buy a 400-oz gold bar, which puts it out of most people’s reach. But you can rest assured the gold is there.

TGR: What final piece of advice would you leave our readers with today?

ES: Be very wary of what we are being told about a recovery. We were told there would be a big recovery in 2012; there was none. Now we are being told about a nice second half recovery, because there has been no recovery in the first half. There probably will not be a recovery in the second half either.

On Jan. 17 the Treasury Department reported its Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)-based budget deficit for 2013. It reported a $1.2 trillion ($1.2T) cash deficit, which is a measure of the change in the present value of future liabilities, such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments, and civil service pension plans, that the government must pay. In 2011, the total deficit was $5T. In 2012, it was $6.9T. Yet, Congress is haggling over how to save $100B. This is a $16T economy.

You cannot like bonds. It is difficult to like stocks in this environment. Instead, stick with the precious metals; sooner or later, we will win the physical war, and the prices will react accordingly.

TGR: Thank you for taking the time to share your time and insights, Eric.

Click here to read The Gold Report’s transcript of the Sprott Precious Metals Round Table webcast with Eric Sprott, John Embry and Rick Rule.

Eric Sprott has over 40 years of experience in the investment industry. In 1981, he founded Sprott Securities (now called Cormark Securities Inc.), which today is one of Canada’s largest independently owned securities firms. After establishing Sprott Asset Management Inc. in December 2001 as a separate entity, Sprott divested his entire ownership of Sprott Securities to its employees. Sprott’s predictions on the state of the North American financial markets have been captured throughout the last several years in an investment strategy article that he authors titled “Markets At A Glance.” Sprott has been widely recognized for his strategic insights and his accurate market predictions over the years.His newest ventures are Sprott Money Ltd., one of Canada’s largest owners of gold and silver bullion, and the recently launched Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust.

DISCLOSURE: 
1) JT Long conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The Gold Report as an employee or as an independent contractor. 
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Silver Breakdown: Is The Confirmation Consequential?

Investors sentiment for precious metals and gold and silver mining stocks has deteriorated quite substantially recently. And silver is no exception here, which can be seen on the white metal charts. However, the situation in the whole sector is extreme – the oversold readings on many technical indicators and the fact that very important support lines are currently in play in virtually any asset in the sector form a setup as (or even more) encouraging for potential buyers as what we saw in 2008. To see what we can expect on the silver market, let us move into today’s technical part – we will start with the white metal’s very long-term chart (charts courtesy by stockcharts.com, visit our archives for more gold articles.)

(Click Chart below to Enlarge)

radomski march12013 1

In this chart, we see that RSI levels are now at the horizontal red line which has coincided with major bottoms many times in the past ten years. We have seen two weekly closes below the rising long-term support line (now resistance) and this week will likely be the third. This will confirm the breakdown below this line, and it causes concern for the short term. Based on that, we could see a move lower to the declining dotted line.

However, before and when taking action, we must keep in mind that silver is a tricky metal because it is a relatively small market, and it could be very well the case that it is somewhat manipulated as well. The short-term technical signals are much less important for these reasons if they are not confirmed by what we see in the in the gold market. As indicated in one of our previous essays, the analysis of gold doesn t point to lower prices so the situation on the above chart is “concerning” but not yet clearly bearish at this time.

radomski march12013 2

In the medium-term SLV ETF chart, we saw a rally this week after the cyclical turning point was reached. It seems that this move to the upside has not yet ended. Earlier this year, silver traded back and forth for a bit and then rallied strongly. It was actually the case also in early November, 2012. This seems to be what lies ahead once again for the white metal, and the RSI levels are also close to being oversold here.

Let us have a look at the white metal from the non-USD perspective now.

radomski march12013 3

In this chart we see that the bottom is in and silver’s price is now at the declining long-term support line. When this was last seen, late in 2012 (RSI levels were oversold then as well), prices soon rallied sharply and rose 10% in just a few weeks. With similar trading patterns and RSI levels seen in recent days, there appears to be a good possibility that a sharp move to the upside may be just around the corner here.

Since the correlation between gold and silver and the U.S. dollar start slowly returning to normality (i.e. it is becoming strong and negative), the fact that the dollar is – in our opinion – likely to decline, could translate into higher prices of these two precious metals (and in fact in the whole sector). We would like to address one of our subscriber’s questions here, however, to clarify that it is not the only thing that is behind the white and yellow metals’ prices:

Before summarizing, we would like to comment on one more issue – the recent strength in the USD Index, as we received quite a few questions about it this week.

The dollar is higher than it close last week and gold is more or less flat – so while gold moved in the opposite direction to the USD Index on a day-to-day basis, it overall responded positively. Gold (and silver as you can see on the above silver:UDN chart) is oversold not only from the USD perspective but also when we consider its price in other currencies. That (plus several other reasons) is why gold is likely to move higher even if the USD doesn’t decline and gold is likely to accelerate if the USD does indeed decline.

Summing up, the signals are somewhat mixed for the white metal this week. The breakdown below the rising long-term support line will likely be confirmed with a third weekly close below this level, but prices may still reverse soon because the situation in gold remains positive. The short-term picture is a bit more bullish with an oversold situation and trading patterns similar to those which preceded a rally very early this year.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to our free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free gold investment newsletter. Sign up today and you’ll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious Precious Metals Investors and Traders along with our 14 best gold investment practices. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great weekend and profitable week!

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold Investment & Silver Investment Website – SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more.Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

“Today is one of the cheapest entry points he’s ever seen.” 

“People are pessimistic today about [gold and] gold shares,” he said, “more than they were in 2001, or in 2008…even the biggest gold companies out there…these guys are getting totally hammered…We had total capitulation a week ago Wednesday, and people were panicking, and people wanted out of gold at any price. It was irrational and it was a foolish thing to do. This is the best time to be buying, not the worst time.” said Bob Moriarty.

It was a fascinating interviewas Moriarity began buying gold after seeing (first hand) the enormous monetary costs of war, and the explosive inflation that always follows. 

.read more HERE

 

 

Gold, Silver and Miners Remain Junk Grade Investments

Since silver and gold topped in 2011 investors have been struggling with these positions hoping this cyclical bull market for metals continues. The simple truth is no one knows for sure if prices will continue and make new highs and those who say its a for sure thing we all know deep down is full of bull crap.

All investments move in cycles, waves or trends which ever you want to call it. The market has 4 simple yet distinct stages each require a completely different skill set and trading tactics to navigate.

Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.

Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock’s price.

Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock’s price.

Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters a bear market. A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock’s price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time. I do show some of my trade setups using these exact stages free here:https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

Stages

Now that you know the stages and what it looks like its time to review the gold, silver and miners charts.

Gold Chart – Weekly

Gold has been in a bull market for several years but is starting to show its age in terms of the size of the price patterns, volume levels and extreme bullish sentiment. Back in 2011 a week before price topped we exited precious metals because the short term charts and volume levels were warning of a sharp drop. Since then I have not done many trades in either gold or silver because I do not like shorting in bull markets. Waiting for a bullish setup/price pattern before getting involved is my focus.

Gold has pulled back with a bullish 5 wave correction the last 5 months and at key support. While the long term charts are pointing to higher gold prices you must be aware that if gold and silver start to breakdown things will likely get ugly quickly. To be honest I do not care which way it goes, I just want it to either rally from support here and make new highs or breakdown and crash. Both will be very profitable if traded properly.

Gold

Silver Chart – Weekly

Silver has a very similar chart to that of its big sister (yellow gold).  This shiny metal has the energy of a 3 year old making it a very volatile investment. I have touched on the topic of gold and silver being so called safe havens and if you have been reading my work for a while you know that any investment that can move 18-45% in value within 1 month is NOT a safe haven.

While it has done well in the past decade and boosted a lot of retirement accounts the day will come with these things collapse and most people holding them will give back most if not all the gains they had simply because people get attached to large positions and most do not know when to just exit a position.

Silver

GOLD MINERS CHART – MONTHLY

This chart gives me cold sweats because I know how many people own gold mining stocks and I know how fast these things can move. If the price closed below the green support line the bottom could fall out and be very painful for those who get paralyzed by denial and do nothing but watch their accounts lose value week after week.

Miners

Precious Metals Investing Conclusion:

In short, this report is to show you the very basics of how investments move in stages. It is also to show a warning that precious metals are technically very close to a major breakdown which the big money players are watching closely. This thinly traded sector can move extremely fast when everyone rushes for the door.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying a crash is about to happen, actually it’s the opposite. All I am doing is planning the idea in your subconscious so that if prices continue to move lower you will remember that these price levels and take action with your investments. Remember, you can always buy the investment back at any time again if the outlook changes in a week, month or year.

Get My FREE Weekly Gold, Silver and Mining Reports and Trade with the Stages:www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen