Gold & Precious Metals

Embry – A Jaw-Dropping 8.6 Million Ounces Of Paper Gold Longs Just Blew Up At The Comex!

Posted by John Embry via King World News

on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 13:12

King-World-News-Maguire-This-Triggered-Todays-Massive-Selloff-In-Gold-Silver-864x400 cU.S. Economy Weakest Since 2008 Collapse

John Embry:  “With all of the chaos regarding the immigration decrees, I think most observers have lost track of what is really happening with the U.S. economy.  Instead they are focusing on the turmoil in the country and the record highs on the Dow…

….continue reading about the Comex drop HERE

….also:

20,000 Dow but Will It Hold

Is the Gold Market Finally ready to breakout?

Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Monday, 30 January 2017 13:59

If pleasures are greatest in anticipation, just remember that this is also true of trouble.

Elbert Hubbard

Throughout 2016, we stated we did not expect much from Gold, and we stuck to this forecast, even though many experts went out of their way to report that Gold was ready to soar to the Moon or even to the next Galaxy. In fact, since 2011, we have continuously said that until the Trend turns positive, it would be best to play other lucrative markets, such as the general equities market, the US dollar, etc. During this time several experts stated that Gold was ready to surge and some issued insane targets ranging from $20,000-$50,000. Under no circumstance can we ever see Gold going to $20,000 or $50,000 and even if drank a whole bottle of scotch or any other toxic compound it would still be very hard to visualise such a target. Issuing such targets is perfect for fear mongering, and we find that tactic to be unpleasant and distasteful.

You would think that experts would try to release targets that made some sense. After all, Gold has not even traded past $2,000, so it makes one wonder how any individuals with a shred of common sense could issue a target of over $5,000. Even this target is quite high, and we only envision it being struck under extreme conditions. Don’t fixate on these preposterous targets for such targets are only for those who live in Lala land and have plenty of time to ponder over rubbish. Gold would need to trade past $1990 on a monthly basis to indicate significantly higher prices. Until that occurs, focus on targets that are below $2,000.

Having said that Gold has for the time in many years issued a confluence of bullish signals. The trend is still neutral but moving closer and closer to the bullish zone.

Let’s examine these bullish factors

Panic in the Gold Camp; we spotted a surge in frustration in the Gold camp when Gold traded below 1200 after creating the illusion that It was ready to take off in Nov 2016; this frustration soared when it broke below 1150, and it reached a screeching point when it traded below 1130

Many Technical Indicators, including several of our custom indicators are trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the weekly charts. Weekly charts, infers that each bar on the chart represents one week’s worth of data

8 out of the top 10 sectors based on relative strength are commodity based industries; Gold comes in at number 10.

Some speculative stocks such as GSS have taken off; GSS, for example, is several hundred percentage points since Jan of 2016. GSS did its own thing completely ignoring the price of Gold. Individually, this is not a big deal, but collectively it takes on more weight.

GSS Jan 2017

If you look at the weekly chart of GSS, you would not think this stock is in the Gold sector given the strong performance. When small caps stocks start to take off before the metal, it is usually a sign of good things to come. Markets are forwarded looking beasts so stocks like GSS could be pricing a future that is more favourable to Gold.

Technical outlook

 

 

Gold Jan 2017 

This is a weekly chart of Gold, and there are several interesting developments

  • Gold appears to have put in a double bottom formation.

  • Gold bottomed almost precisely where the downward trending line and the line of support intersect. This is a case of former resistance turning into support, and when combined with aforementioned factors, it has to be viewed through a bullish lens.

  • MACD’s are trading in the oversold ranges and are close to experiencing a bullish crossover

  • Gold has a strong layer of support in the $1130-$1140 ranges, and as long as it does not close below this level on a weekly basis, the outlook will remain favourable

Very strong intra Market Positive divergence signal

Gold bottomed on the 15th of Dec 2016, but the dollar continued to trend higher for several more days and Gold reacted in a positive way to this development. The dollar has been on a tear since Trump won, so Gold should have continued trending lower, but it did not. In Dec 2015, Gold dropped to the $1050 ranges, but the dollar was trading below 100, but in 2016 the dollar was trading well above 100 and Gold refused to take out the lows set back in 2015. This is a very strong intra-market positive divergence signal and has to be viewed through a bullish lens.

Conclusion

Gold has now given the first signal that it is getting ready to test the $1360 ranges with a possible overshoot to the $1380 ranges. A weekly close above $1380 will set up the path for a test of and potential challenge of the 2011 highs. As a result of these developments, Gold no longer needs to trade down to the mid to high $1000 ranges. The downside risk is limited from here, and if you do not have a position in bullion, it might be prudent to deploy some funds into Gold and or Silver bullion.

We do not try to predict tops or bottoms; we focus on trends. We are not concerned with getting in at the absolute bottom or top because that is endeavour best reserved for fools with plenty of time. For every top or bottom you might catch, there are ten that you will miss. When there is a trend change, you have plenty of time to get in. Most of the bottom fishers will close their positions very early in the game as they will be so happy with the quick gains they locked in after years of suffering. Only when the markets take off and soar to heights they once imagined but did not have the courage to play will they realise the folly of their actions.

This is the first time since 2011 that we are viewing the Gold market through a positive lens. Keep in mind; there is no such thing as the perfect investment. The market by nature is imperfect; therefore you should never put all your eggs in one basket.

Despair, in short, seeks its own environment as surely as water finds its own level.

A. Alvarez

http://tacticalinvestor.com

Historical Official Records Reveal Gold’s Value Should Be 20 Times Higher

Posted by SRSroccoREPORT

on Thursday, 26 January 2017 14:02

According to historical official records, the price of gold should be 20 times higher than the current market price.  While many precious metals investors have heard about the revaluation of gold to back the outstanding fiat currency, my analysis focuses on monetary gold stocks versus global GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

To understand how the global GDP versus monetary gold stocks has changed, we need to look at information and data published in the U.S. Bureau Of Mines 1932-33 Gold-Silver Mineral Yearbook:

US-1932-Yearbook-42-Countries-Abandon-Gold-Standard-768x454

As we can see from the text above, Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931.  However, the most interesting part of the text above was, “It is surprising to learn that within a year 42 countries have abandoned the gold standard or are maintaining it artificially.”

Thus, in all actuality, the world abandoned the gold standard in the early 1930’s, even though the United States Gold-backed Dollar became the world’s reserve currency via the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944.

Now, the Central Banks and Financial elite had a very good reason to drop the gold standard.  The financial and banking elite would profit immensely by printing money and charging interest, but only if money wasn’t gold or backed by gold.  Because, the increase in above ground gold stocks was limited to its annual gold production.  In addition, the industrial revolution had a profound impact on global economic growth.

In the past, international trade was mainly settled in gold or bills of exchange.  However, global economic growth was surging as the industrial revolution was now being powered by coal and oil.  These two energy sources enabled the world to increase economic growth at a massive scale and pace versus human and animal labor… which was the foundation of economic markets for thousands of years.

OIL ECONOMICS 101:  A Barrel Of Oil = 2,875 People Working An Eight Hour Day

For example, a barrel of oil provides the equivalent of 23,200 man-hours of labor (source). If we divide it by the typical eight-hour work day, a barrel of oil equals the labor of 2,875 people.  By taking that a step further, let’s look how daily U.S. oil consumption equates to human labor:

19 million barrels per day oil  X  2,875 people = 54.6 billion people per day


…..continue for more analysis and 6 charts HERE

 

First published Sat Jan 21 for members:  Bulls and bears in this complex probably need a Xanax by now.  This market has swung so dramatically over the last several years that many are probably so whipsawed that they don’t know which way is up.  But, for now, the market is setting up in a manner to take us up even further in 2017, and potentially even further than many believe. 

As I noted last weekend, silver has finally joined the party, and has completed quite a full 5 waves up off the lows, and potentially even more.  And, as stated last weekend, since everyone was looking for a pullback coming into this past week, the market did just the opposite and continued higher early in the week.  So, can we see more of a pullback in the coming week?

Well, I will say that a further pullback in silver would provide us with a really nice inverted heads and shoulders in the silver chart.  But, again, that just may be too easy.  You see, when the greater market sees the potential for any type of heads and shoulders patterns, especially bearish ones, they rarely play out as most expect.  Most of the time, they simply set up the bears on what seems to be an initial trigger of the pattern by a break of the neckline, only to see a strong reversal catching all the shorts by surprise as the heads and shoulders invalidates and turns the market up strongly.  This is what I warned about months ago in the GDX, and exactly what happened in the complex over the last month.

But, since inverted heads and shoulders are not as closely followed, it does have a better shot at working out.  Moreover, as standard heads and shoulders do not usually have a high probability of playing out, one that is supported by an Elliott Wave count usually has a much higher probability of triggering.  And, if we do see this inverted heads and shoulders playing out, it will be supported by a strong bottoming structure in silver, followed by a (1)(2) impulsive bullish structure, as presented on the 144-minute chart.  The support for such a wave (2) pullback in silver resides between 16.10-16.50.

As far as the GDX is concerned, our main support resides between 20.50-21.65.  As long as any further drops maintain over that support region, we must view the market bullishly, and setting up to head back towards the highs of August 2016.  Moreover, any immediate break outs through the 24 region, with strong follow through over 25.10, without any further pullbacks early in the upcoming week, would suggest we are on way back to the August high sooner rather than later.  Such a break out would be confirmed by silver breaking out through the downtrend line on the 144-minute chart, which is approximately within the 17.50 region.

In GLD, the relevant support resides between 110.50-112.65.  And, as long as we remain over that support, we need to continue to view this market bullishly.

So, while we can certainly see more downside consolidation in the upcoming week in the metals complex, and even have micro set-ups for it to occur, my suggestion is to be positioning yourself on the long side of the market as long as we remain over the relevant support cited above.  A strong break out in silver over the 17.50 region is the main signal for which I will be watching to suggest that the consolidation is over, and we are on our way back to the August 2016 highs before the next larger consolidation I expect later this year, potentially in the spring of 2017.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD and Silver (YI) at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-GDX-GLD-Silver-201701231473.html.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

Jan 24, 2017

  1. The 2017 gold market rally continues nicely, with a current pause at light overhead resistance in the $1215 – $1220 area. 
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily bars gold chart.
  3. Note the flat lining action of the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. That’s quite positive, and opens the door to a further move towards my $1245 target price area.
  4. Please  click here now.  Donald Trump is likely to be a positive catalyst for higher gold prices, for many reasons.
  5. On the geopolitical front, the South Sea island building by China looks like it could quickly become a major gold price driver.
  6. Trump has also been very clear about his goal of slowing US corporate outsourcing of labour to foreign countries. 
  7. This is quite inflationary and could end up creating a bit of an earnings quagmire.
  8. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily bars US dollar versus Japanese yen chart.
  9. It’s true that US bond market yields have risen a bit, but Trump’s dollar-negative statements are overwhelming the rise and putting downwards pressure on the dollar against both the yen and gold.
  10. Gold has stopped rising at $1215 – $1220 at the same time as the dollar has stopped falling at 112.50 against the yen. 
  11. All Western gold community eyes should be focused on that 112.50 dollar versus yen price. If the dollar falls below that support, it should send gold through $1220, and on towards $1245.
  12. Many gold analysts have been trying to call an end to the current rally, and have been negative since the December lows. In contrast, I would argue that the rally is poised to accelerate.
  13. I don’t think these analysts really grasp the tremendous influence that Trump and his team can have on the value of the dollar against key currencies like the yuan and the yen.
  14. Please  click here now.  Double-click to enlarge this daily bars chart of the dollar versus the Swiss franc.
  15. The dollar is beginning to look like a train wreck on this chart. It’s broken down from a head and shoulder top pattern just as Trump has been inaugurated!
  16. When push comes to shove, the US Treasury has vastly more power than the central bank wields, and the Treasury has legal authority to devalue the dollar. The Fed has no such authority.
  17. Janet Yellen’s recent negative statements about Trump’s stimulus policies will fall on deaf ears, and may create a backlash. 
  18. Janet would not fare very well in a confrontation with Trump. I expect future statements from her about US government policy to become quite timid as she begins to realize how determined Mr. Trump is to lower the value of the dollar.
  19. Please  click here now. GDX is breaking out of a small ascending triangle, and making a beeline towards my $25 target zone.
  20. Technically, GDX looks superb now. The green downtrend line is now support, as is the horizontal resistance at $22.50!
  21. The bottom line is that the traffic light is turning green for most gold stocks, while President Trump turns it red for the dollar.
  22. Please  click here now.  Double-click to enlarge this Kinross daily bars chart.
  23. It’s blasting upwards from an inverse head and shoulders pattern at a key support zone. Investors can book some light profits near the $4.22 price zone, and use my unique pyramid generator to do so systematically.
  24. Donald “The Golden Trumpster” Trump may or may not make debt-soaked America great (he likely won’t), but he’s almost certainly going to make gold ownership a great investment during his presidency. I will dare to suggest it’s time for the Western gold community to throw a bit of caution to the wind, and sit back and enjoy this gold price rally. This is a rally that seems poised to accelerate in quite a shocking way, as the Golden Trumpster makes one dollar-negative move after another!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Jan 24, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com

Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable reading time.

Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:

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