Economic Outlook
The Covid-19 recession is in the books as one of the deepest — but also the shortest — in U.S. history, the official documenter of economic cycles said Monday.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to the following April.
Though the drop featured a staggering 31.4% GDP plunge in the second quarter of the pandemic-scarred year, it also saw a massive snapback the following period, with previously unheard of policy stimulus boosting output by 33.4%.
“In determining that a trough occurred in April 2020, the committee did not conclude that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity,” the NBER said in a news release. “The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.”
The pandemic recession was unique in a number of ways, not least how fast the contraction happened and how ferocious the recovery was.
Conventionally, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which this recession met after the first quarter in 2020 fell 5%. But the NBER noted that in normal times, a recession lasts “more than a few months.”…read more.

Some of airlines’ most in-demand flights this summer don’t even leave the ground.
Flight simulators from Atlanta to Dallas to Miami and elsewhere are humming as airlines scramble to get hundreds of pilots trained to meet a surge in bookings that kicked off this spring as vaccinations rolled out and Covid-era restrictions eased.
Domestic leisure travel has recovered to 2019 levels, while business travel is also rebounding, airline executives said this month.
Airlines have received $54 billion in federal aid since March 2020 in exchange for not laying off workers. But voluntary departures, changed fleets and the rapid rise in travel demand have created a need for pilot training that industry experts say is without parallel. Reduced flight schedules also meant pilots weren’t getting in their minimum takeoffs and landings required to maintain their flying status. Training pilots on new aircraft can take weeks while annual retraining can take a few days.
“What is unique about this experience is the drop-off in business [early in the pandemic] was an existential threat to the business,” said Bryan Terry, managing director and global aviation leader at Deloitte. “Then what came, the unexpected part, the return to travel came faster than expected.”
That “puts a very tight timeline” on the pilot training, he added.
Airline executives urged pilots and other employees to take early retirement and leaves of absence at reduced pay to cut expenses. They parked hundreds of jets, retiring some planes altogether…read more.

Two years ago, Wall Street banks were on their way out of a long-term relationship with the oil industry. Now, with oil prices over $70 for the first time in three years, big bond buyers are snapping up oil bonds once again.
Only there is a condition this time.
The Wall Street Journal’s Joe Wallace and Collin Eaton wrote this week that Wall Street was buying bonds from non-investment-grade U.S. energy companies, which took advantage of record low interest rates to raise some $34 billion in fresh debt in the first half of the year.
That’s twice as much as the industry raised over the same period last year. But investors don’t want borrowers to use the cash to drill new wells. They want them to use it to pay off older debt and shore up balance sheets.
It makes sense, really, although it is a marked departure from how banks normally react to oil industry crises. The 2014 oil price collapse, in hindsight, may have been the last “normal” crisis. Oil prices fell, funding dried up, supply tightened, prices went up, banks were willing to lend again, and producers poured the money into boosting production.
Since then, however, the energy transition push has really gathered pace and banks have more than one reason to not be so willing to lend to the oil industry. With the world’s biggest asset managers setting up net-zero groups to effectively force their institutional clients to reduce their carbon footprint and with the Biden administration throwing its weight behind the push for lower emissions, banks really have little choice but to follow the current. Their own shareholders are increasingly concerned about the environment, too…read more.

‘We can have a documentary-ethics panel about it later’.
In a new documentary, Roadrunner, about the life and tragic death of Anthony Bourdain, there are a few lines of dialogue in Bourdain’s voice that he might not have ever said out loud.
Filmmaker Morgan Neville used AI technology to digitally re-create Anthony Bourdain’s voice and have the software synthesize the audio of three quotes from the late chef and television host, Neville told the New Yorker.
The deepfaked voice was discovered when the New Yorker’s Helen Rosner asked how the filmmaker got a clip of Bourdain’s voice reading an email he had sent to a friend. Neville said he had contacted an AI company and supplied it with a dozen hours of Bourdain speaking.
“ … and my life is sort of shit now. You are successful, and I am successful, and I’m wondering: Are you happy?” Bourdain wrote in an email, and an AI algorithm later narrated an approximation of his voice.
You can hear the line in the documentary’s trailer linked below, right around the 1:30 mark. The algorithm’s generation of Bourdain’s voice is especially audible when it says, “and I am successful.”…to listen and read more.

Canadians are suddenly pulling back on their new vehicle buying binge. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows new vehicle sales grew on an annual basis in May. Sadly, it wasn’t because the market was experiencing robust growth. It was due entirely to the base effect of comparing sales to an early pandemic month. Zooming out, it was the second slowest May since 1997.
Why Do I Care About New Vehicle Sales?
New vehicle sales are a huge signal for the economy. For someone to buy a new vehicle, they have to be confident in their ability to pay for it. If someone is confident about their ability to buy an expensive item, they have job stability. People confident in their future income continue to spend and borrow.
A similar observation can be made about truck buying and the housing industry. In a building boom, more contractors need more vehicles. If they’re being squeezed on margins because, oh, I don’t know, lumber made it unprofitable. They tend to stick with their own vehicle. That’s in addition to auto manufacturing being a large industry. A slowdown (or ramp up!) of new vehicle sales can actually tell us a lot.
Canadian New Vehicle Sales Had The Second Weakest May Since 1997
Canadian new vehicle sales are slowing, though the base effect muddles the numbers. There were 151,912 new vehicles sold in May, down 8.9% from a month before. Compared to a year before sales are 30.8% higher, though last year was extremely low, due to the pandemic…read more.
