Current Affairs

China’s very bad bank: Inside the Huarong debt debacle

Posted by Evelyn Yu, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, Tongjian Dong

on Thursday, 15 April 2021 7:07

 

It’s been 11 weeks since Lai Xiaomin, the man once known as the God of Wealth, was executed on a cold Friday morning in the Chinese city of Tianjin.

But his shadow still hangs over one of the most dramatic corruption stories ever to come out of China – a tale that has now set nerves on edge around the financial world.

At its center is China Huarong Asset Management Co., the state financial company that Lai lorded over until getting ensnared in a sweeping crackdown on corruption by China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

From Hong Kong to London to New York, questions burn. Will the Chinese government stand behind US$23.2 billion that Lai borrowed on overseas markets — or will international bond investors have to swallow losses? Are key state-owned enterprises like Huarong still too big to fail, as global finance has long assumed – or will these companies be allowed to stumble, just like anyone else?

The answers will have huge implications for China and markets across Asia. Should Huarong fail to pay back its debts in full, the development would cast doubt over a core tenet of Chinese investment: the assumed government backing for important state-owned enterprises, or SOEs.

“A default at a central state-owned company like Huarong is unprecedented,” said Owen Gallimore, head of credit strategy at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. Should one occur, he said, it would mark “a watershed moment” for Chinese and Asian credit markets.

Not since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s has the issue weighed so heavily. Huarong bonds — among the most widely held SOE debt worldwide — recently fell to a record low of about 52 cents on the dollar. That’s not the pennies on a dollar normally associated with deeply troubled companies elsewhere, but it’s practically unheard of for an SOE.

Fears of a near-term default eased on Thursday after the company was said to have prepared funds for full repayment of a SUS$600 million (US$450 million) offshore bond due April 27. Huarong plans to pay on the due date, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named discussing private information.

That’s a drop in the ocean and won’t remove investor concerns. All told, Huarong owes bondholders at home and abroad the equivalent of US$42 billion. Some US$17.1 billion of that falls due by the end of 2022, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.

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Big Tech’s health care battle

Posted by the Hustle

on Thursday, 15 April 2021 6:43

 

Health care is the latest Big Tech battleground.

It’s no secret that America spends on health care. In 2019, that spending reached $3.8T ($11.6k per person). By 2028, it’s projected to hit $6.2T.

To the folks in Big Tech, any number with a “T” means one thing: opportunity.

This week, Microsoft showed it’s serious about the space

The company announced the $19.7B acquisition of Nuance Communications, known for its AI transcription tools for health care professionals.

Nuance has a healthy following among…

  • Doctors: 55%+ of physicians and 75% of radiologists in the US use its products
  • Hospitals: 77% of US hospitals are Nuance customers
  • Investors: Nuance’s Health Care Cloud revenue grew 37% in 2020

Doctors can use Nuance tech — which is already integrated with Microsoft Teams — to record conversations and automatically transcribe notes.

But Microsoft isn’t alone

Cook, Pichai, and Bezos want in, too:

  • Apple is focused on selling hardware to health care providers and offering software platforms for medical record keeping
  • Google recently introduced its Google-for-medical-records platform Care Studio and bought Fitbit for $2.1B
  • Amazon is the gangster player, having recently released Prime-like online pharmacy and primary care service platforms

Bezos has also gone one step further, debuting the Amazon Halo that’s capable of calculating body fat (of which Bezos has none).

Still, challenges abound

If history is any indication, Big Tech’s success in health care is hardly a given:

  • IBM hyped Watson’s AI-cancer diagnosis capabilities but is now exploring a sale
  • Amazon’s health care venture with Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase failed to get off the ground
  • Google faced privacy hurdles when trying to gain access to health care provider data

Regardless, the digitization of health care is a huge market, and Big Tech is gearing up for battle.

 

Detached Housing Market Update

on Wednesday, 14 April 2021 10:06

Record Breaking Month in Greater Vancouver for Home Sale Prices & New Monthly Listings

Yet another record month for the Greater Vancouver housing market. The average cost to purchase a detached property inside of REBGV increased by $89,000. Bringing the average to $1.958M. This was aided by the continued high sales totalling 1,973. Accumulating the second largest sale total in the history of Greater Vancouver real estate. In attempts to capture the newly minted growth phase in home prices, sellers came to the market in droves. Setting the new record with 3,368 newly listed detached properties in March. The record amount of activity to kick off the spring market is likely to continue as March through May are typically the busiest months of the year.

Home sale prices continued their escalation beyond the previous market cycle. Amazingly, another $89,000 was added to the average sales price from the previous month. The new record price of $1.958M represents a 7% gain over a two month span. The 7% growth is the first increase above the previous market cycle which had held home values range bound for 5 years.

The biggest gainers this past month were Pitt Meadows up an incredible $233,000 month over month, representing an astonishing 20% increase. The average property in Pitt Meadows is selling for $1.44M. Vancouver West rose $500,000 up 14%, bringing the average price to $4.025M. The standout of the gainers over the past two months is Whistler. This past month over $600,000 was added to the average price. Couple that with the $900,000 increase from the month previous, and Whistler has increased over $1.5M in just the past two months. The recent spike in value has increased the averages price to over $4.325M for a detached property in Whistler. The massive increases to these areas have aided the REBGV average price to gain distance between the price point and the aggressive uptrend instigated during July 2020.

Breaking beyond the 5 year price boundary has been clearly aided by the supply demand imbalance. March 2021 just recorded the second largest imbalance between the two market metrics on record. The total gap between the supply versus demand during March was 3.6. Falling just 2 basis points below the all time high which occurred during March 2016 with a 3.8 gap. Interestingly, previous to the past month the second largest discrepancy occurred during April 2016. This implies buyers are unlikely to receive any reprieve in the short term.

As forecasted over the previous months, sellers are entering the market with full force. A record setting total of over 3,300 properties were listed in last month. March 2021 represents only the 4th instance where new listings accumulated over 3,000 in a single month. Should the high new listings count continue to rise through spring and into the summer months, home values will likely realize a near term price peak during the summer.

Even with a record amount of new listings, the total inventory continues to remain in the doldrums of the chart. A glimmer of hope would be the total inventory of 3,886 is attempting to break out of the 3 year immediate downtrend (Red trend line). Established during June 2019 when there was over 6,700 active listings. The enormity of new listings only resulted in a net of 880 total active listings compared to the previous month. However should inventory continue to grow a the 29% as was the case in March. The key figure of 5,700 active listings is well within reach by the late summer, or early fall.

Sales fell just short in completing a trifecta of records during March. The 1,973 sales were only 177 shy from the all time high achieved during March 2016 of 2,150 sales. With the abundance of new listings coming to market, the buyers snatched up the choice properties, and continued in the bidding war mentality which pushed the average sales price to over 101% of the asking price. This is only the 9th instance in which sales price was over 100% of the asking. Of those previous 8 instances they all occurred between December 2015 – July 2016. Implying the next several months of data could result in a continuation of the sales prices being higher than the asking prices.

Importantly, all subsections of the market are now selling. Over the past year the entry level homes have been selling at a frenzied pace, that has worked all the way up to the luxury market. March realized 49 properties that sold over $5M. The 49 sales is an increase of 250% compared to the preceding 3 year average of 14 sales per month. The prices of the luxury market is still not quite back to the peak conditions of 2017. As the averages sales price was $8.6M. However the average sales price in March of $7.6M, is up over $1.6M from the low recorded in May 2020 of $6M.

Dane Eitel
Founder & Lead Analyst
EitelInsights.com

The skyrocketing cost of lumber, explained

Posted by Jacob Cohen

on Wednesday, 14 April 2021 8:03

 

Low supply and high demand have pushed lumber prices through the roof, but European beetles are helping.

Wood is typically used for building roofs. Now it’s known for blasting through them.

Lumber prices are up nearly 260% since April 2020, following a perfect storm of surging demand and diminished supply.

And it all started with a simple backlog…

At the start of the pandemic, sawmills anticipated weak demand and limited production by up to 30%. To their surprise, demand turned out stronger than ever:

  • DIY boom: While the US economy shrank 3.5% in 2020, spending on home improvements and repairs grew 3%+
  • Low interest rates: In December, US new housing starts hit a 14-year high

Despite wood production hitting a 13-year high in February, supply hasn’t caught up with demand — and now ~70% of builders are raising home prices to slow demand down.

The result is a $24k+ increase in the average price of single-family homes since April 2020.

European beetles are now coming in clutch

Not those European beetles. A literal beetle infestation across Europe is boosting logging there, and Europe’s share of US lumber imports reached a record high of 13% in 2020.

Those imports are critical to the US lumber supply as British Columbia has reduced production by over a third in 5 years.

In conclusion… (We wanted to end this piece with a joke about lumber, but we just couldn’t think of any that wood work.)

 

Fortnite-maker Epic completes $1B funding round. The most ironic investor on the list: the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board.

Posted by Brian Heater

on Wednesday, 14 April 2021 7:45

 

How much is Epic Games worth? Well, we’ve long ago surpassed the realm of dollar figures regular humans can contextualize. With its latest round, the gamer hit an equity valuation of $28.7 billion. Yes, “b” for “billion.” That’s a lot of micro-transactions.

Time to start talking metaverse!

Best known for the wildly successful battle royale title Fortnite, Epic just announced another $1 billion funding round, featuring a $200 million Sony Group Corporation investment. The rest of the list is, predictably, a long one, including [deep breath], Appaloosa, Baillie Gifford, Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC, GIC, T. Rowe Price Associates-managed accounts, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, BlackRock managed accounts, Park West, KKR, AllianceBernstein, Altimeter, Franklin Templeton and Luxor Capital.

Epic vs. Apple

“We are grateful to our new and existing investors who support our vision for Epic and the Metaverse,” CEO and founder Tim Sweeney said in a statement tied to the news. “Their investment will help accelerate our work around building connected social experiences in Fortnite, Rocket League and Fall Guys, while empowering game developers and creators with Unreal Engine, Epic Online Services and the Epic Games Store.”

Sweeney has plenty of reason to be grateful, as the controlling shareholder.

It’s been a busy several months for the game maker. The company has been waging an on-going war with both Apple and Google over in-game payment revenues. A trial likely to feature some of the biggest names in tech is expected to kick off early next month.

Gaming rules the entertainment industry, so why aren’t investors showing up?

Epic has also been using its already extremely deep coffers to purchase game developers and publishing studios, including its March acquisition of Fall Guys-maker Mediatonic. It’s clear the company is amassing a large portfolio of titles through acquisitions, a trend that is almost certain to continue with this latest massive round.

The funding also looks likely to strengthen the company’s ties to Sony, as well. Here’s Sony Group Corporation CEO Kenichiro Yoshida, also quoted in the press release:

Epic continues to deliver revolutionary experiences through their array of cutting edge technologies that support creators in gaming and across the digital entertainment industry. We are excited to strengthen our collaboration to bring new entertainment experiences to people around the world. I strongly believe that this aligns with our purpose to fill the world with emotion, through the power of creativity and technology.

Prior to this round, the company had raised $3.4 billion, including a a $1.78 billion round last August.

Epic cries monopoly as Apple details secret ‘Project Liberty’ effort to provoke ‘Fortnite’ ban