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Gold Inches Closer To $2,000

Posted by Mining.com

on Wednesday, 16 September 2020 8:54

Gold prices advanced higher on Monday as a weaker US dollar and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will reiterate its dovish monetary policy stance later this week helped to reinvigorate investor interest for bullion.

Spot gold was up nearly 1.0% at $1,959.44 per ounce by 11:15 a.m. EDT — its highest in almost two weeks and the largest gain during this period. US gold futures also rose 1.0% to $1,969.20 per ounce.

“Gold is firm on the basis that the Fed could adopt a further dovish message with respect to average inflation targeting,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in a Reuters interview.

“If you want to have a policy of average inflation targeting, you’re going to have to go into detail as to how you are going to arrive at that particular outcome,” Hewson added…CLICK for complete article

It’s not what we feared it might be…

Posted by Bill Blain

on Wednesday, 16 September 2020 6:35

 

Yesterday I was bombarded with more articles, comments, graphs, data and YouTube links following a Morning Porridge than ever before. I made a conscious effort to check as many as I could out.  Some of them were excellent. Some less so. There is still an awful lot of badly-written unsupported conspiracy-theory corona-denial out there. There is some very good fact-based commentary. There is plenty of data and good science – and I missed much of it till y’day!

I’ve put together a list of some YouTubes to watch and articles to read at the bottom.

My conclusion is simple. The evidence shows the coronavirus is not what we feared it might be. It is not the Medical Armageddon we closed down our economy to avoid. As a result we just hot our Economy in the foot. Lockdowns probably achieved very little – aside from wrecking whole swathes of industry, business and commerce.

Covid-19 is serious, it makes many people very ill, and it has culled large number of vulnerable people. Many people remain in danger. But it is not the Big One. It is not a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu or the Black Death. The story of the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic started with the assumption it was going to be a global disaster killing millions, but it’s turned out to be something very different and less threatening.

We should be thankful for that. The Big One is surely still coming. What we’ve experienced over the last months allows us to figure out what worked and what didn’t for next time. Hopefully we can face the tragedy and challenges of the next real pandemic without creating economic misery as well. At some point mankind will accidently unleash a new SARs or other virus that could kill millions. COVID-19 wasn’t the killer we thought it might be.

But…. READ MORE

 

Canadian Immigration Resumes Big Declines, As Permanent Resident Numbers Plummet

Posted by BetterDwelling

on Tuesday, 15 September 2020 7:53

Canadian immigration numbers have resumed massive drops, after briefly showing improvement in June. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows permanent resident arrivals made big declines in July. The previous month had briefly seen the declines shrink in size, providing optimism to real estate markets. However, the month proved to be an anomaly, with the latest data showing much larger drops in arrivals.

Canadian Permanent Resident Arrivals Drops Over 60%

Permanent residents arriving in Canada are back to making steep declines. There were 13,645 permanent residents admitted in July, down 60.29% from the same month a year before. Year-to-date the country has seen 220,500 people admitted, down 38.25% compared to the same period last year. June showed improvements in the trend, but those rolled back in the latest numbers…CLICK for complete article

Make no mistake—this is a stock market bubble.

Posted by Ben Levisohn

on Tuesday, 15 September 2020 7:03

The Stock Market Bubble —and How to Play It

Every stock market bubble begins with a story, and make no mistake—this is a stock market bubble.

The story began easily enough, if not with “once upon a time.” A virus forced the country to shut down and accelerated the gains in a select few technology stocks that are uniquely capable of thriving with everyone stuck at home. A central bank took quick action to prevent financial markets from seizing up, pushing interest rates about as low as they could go. That helped lift the stocks of companies that are growing, including chiefly the aforementioned tech stocks, even if some have no profits. These stocks were among the first to rally once the stock market bottomed in March.

Now, get ready for the plot twist: Good investment ideas can stop being good ideas if the story goes on for too long. The tech trade—including tech companies that aren’t officially labeled as such—went too far before correcting suddenly in the past two weeks.

After gaining 75.7% from its March 23 low through Sept. 2, the tech-led Nasdaq Composite fell 10%, to 10,847.69, over three trading days, its swiftest correction on record.

But one correction doesn’t mean that the story is over, or that the bubble is ready to burst. To the contrary, the forces that drove stocks such as Apple (ticker: AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) to astonishing heights remain firmly in place. They include the companies’ continued growth, the Federal Reserve’s determination to do whatever it takes to keep the economy afloat, retail investors’ newfound interest in trading, and maybe even a bit of fiscal largess. Stocks will remain volatile, but the tech bubble will continue to inflate.

For an investment bubble to occur, there has to be a widespread belief that a new paradigm has taken hold requiring an adjustment in valuations far beyond what previous fundamentals would imply. This belief needs to engage the imagination of investors beyond Wall Street, and there must be plenty of capital available to chase stock prices higher. The Covid-19 crisis has unlocked all three prerequisites.

Full Story

 

 

Ignoring the results and “hoping this time will be different” has never been a profitable portfolio strategy.

Posted by Lance Roberts

on Tuesday, 15 September 2020 6:43

 

Is everything “priced in?” Investors have gone “all in” with a disregard for caution. But with markets extended and overvalued what should investors do now?

As discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter, investors got even more speculative during the recent correction, which is the opposite of what you would expect. But if markets anticipate “good news,” then are there any “surprises” left?

In other words, if markets have priced in perfection, then there is not a lot of room for “disappointment.” Such was a point I made this morning on Twitter:

As we have discussed previously, “market momentum” is a hard thing to kill. Such is particularly the case when the “Fear Of Missing Out” overrides logic. In this past weekend’s missive, we laid out the case for a “sellable rally.” To wit:

“You can see the failure of the market at the 20-dma and the support at the 50-dma. What is essential are the upper and lower indicators.

  1. Both of the upper indicators are currently registering short-term oversold conditions, suggestive of at least a reflexive bounce next week.
  2. Conversely, both of the lower “sell signals” have been triggered, and as noted in the video, it suggests there is additional selling pressure on stocks currently.”

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