Stocks & Equities
Did we tell you or did we tell you? It’s a bit premature to claim bragging rights but the Junior market has been trading exactly how we hoped it would. Ben Bernanke delivered the early Christmas presents gold bugs were dreaming of and the market tenor looks better than it has for a year.
(Ed Note: Very sorry – this was published on Oct 3rd & 95% of the article and no charts appeared!)
The operative word is still “better”, not “great”. The increase in volume in the Juniors is gratifying but still not enough. It will take higher volumes still to keep a rally alive through to year end.
In keeping with that note of cautious optimism we are sticking with discovery stories that are already working and later stage stories that were under loved until the gold price took off. A number of these are trading impressively well. So far discoveries and undervalued developers/small producers represent most all of the positive volume. They are riding the wave but the tide has not come in for the rest of the companies in the sector.
We still think the market may strengthen further in October but until that happens we decided to add a company to the list with built in protection in the form of a healthy back account. This company is not beholden to the market and should have news flow going forward. Like many companies, it still needs discovery news as a spark for a bigger move however.
After months of nothing but ugly, the market for resource stocks finally took a meaningful turn for the better. We all know the reason for that. US Fed chief Bernanke delivered on QE3 and the gold market responded.
The chart below shows how impressive the rally that kicked off in August has been.
Bernanke telegraphed his move and the markets were already cheering a push by the ECB for its own money printing. By the time the Fed announcement of $40 billion a month in mortgage backed bond purchases was announced a lot of the gain was in. Since the announcement there has been another up-leg in price but that move appears to be stalled out in the $1770-1780 range. Where do we go from here?
The Fed’s actions have weakened the Dollar but for the trend to continue there needs to be more “risk on” trading. Even better would be progress by Europe or other currency blocks that leads to traders exiting the greenback to go long Euros or other currencies.
QE3 has certainly taken care of the risk-on part of the equation. That was probably the Fed’s main aim, in fact. Yes the buying will lower long term yields a little more but it also goosed the major market indices which we suspect was the major reason for doing it.
Notwithstanding anemic economic stats consumer confidence has been rising steadily in the US. This has much to do with gains in the stock market. Equities are a bigger part of the personal balance sheet for Americans than others. Seeing their 401Ks growing (those with jobs, that is) is making Americans more confident. So too is increasing evidence that the housing market is finally bottoming after five years of pain.
This confidence is not showing up in spending numbers yet. Other concerns like the Fiscal Cliff have been holding back hiring. The US economy needs to see some follow through for consumers to start spending. It will be tough to maintain momentum unless that happens.
In Europe, the ECB has a more complicated monetary equation to solve. Announcements of “unlimited” bond buying have helped European bourses but shareholdings are less widespread and those gains don’t impact confidence the way they do in the US.
In the case of ECB head Draghi, it’s the bond market’s confidence levels that are the main concern. As the 3 year yield chart above for Spanish and Italian bonds shows Draghi too has had some success.
Rates started falling as soon as Draghi decided to call the bluff of Euro area politicians in August. They fell farther as the plan to buy bonds was outlined early this month but doubts have begun to creep in. “Unlimited buying” made for good headlines but the latest European plan is as opaque as its many predecessors.
In order to appease creditor countries the ECB plan calls for countries that need ECB backstopping their sovereign bonds to ask for help and to be willing to submit to further conditions. Three is no indication what those conditions would be.
That was enough to spook both Spain and Italy which insist they don’t need the help. Until debtor countries ask for help ECB bond purchases will be extremely limited. Most traders think Spain at least will have no choice. Spain recently published bank stress test results that indicate its major banks need to raise $60 billion in capital, $40 billion less than the amount expected and offered by the ECB during the summer.
Even so, Spain needs to issue about €300 billion in debt this year to cover its budget shortfall and maturing debt. The odds of Draghi turning on the printing press still look good.
In Japan, the government seems powerless to defend the Yen from buyers, even though its export economy desperately needs a cheaper currency. The Bank of Japan has added $200 billion to its liquidity funds. Japan can least afford to pile up debt but its cornered in a classis liquidity trap and here too the printing press will hum.
With both risk-on trades and a known minimum amount of new money getting printed the path of least resistance for the Dollar is down. Even if the ECB starts printing too that might not change. ECB bond buying could actually strengthen the Euro in the short term as it would be considered a positive development in their debt crisis. Either way, the Dollar should be capped and gold and silver should see more gains in coming weeks and months.
Base metals and materials need stronger economic stats. Most major economies published manufacturing indices in the past few days. While most readings improved marginally all of them except the US are still showing contraction.
If Europe can complete negotiations on banking oversight and the US consumer continues to cheer up the Euro zone may also move out of contraction. China’s leadership starts its party congress on November 9th. Beijing hasn’t added any stimulus since early summer. If that is going to happen it will probably start in about a month.
The chart below shows the turn around to date in the Venture Index. It’s still at depressing levels but the rally, such as it is, is the longest we’ve seen since the market turned down in March. Here too, confidence is needed. There have been early adopters buying (like HRA) but most are still on the sidelines. Higher volumes are the clearest sign more are joining the party so watch those. We expect the rally to run to year end. How far it climbs depends on who wins the confidence game.
2012 hasn’t been an easy year for explorers but HRA has been calling for a fall rally since early in the summer. Thanks to a surging gold price that rally appears to have arrived. It’s not a broad rally yet. Traders are looking for companies with discoveries and management that knows how to add shareholder value. HRA is your key to uncovering and profiting from extraordinary resource shares by getting ahead of the crowd. At HRA, we look for companies with the potential to at least double over one or two years based on asset growth and development of metals deposits for production or take over by larger companies.
To download our latest HRA Journal for free–which includes a recent new recommendation that is making gains–click HERE now!
Published by Stockwork Consulting Ltd.
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As soon as ex-General Electric CEO Jack Welch fired off a tweet questioning today’s just released “unbelievable jobs numbers,” the media went into a frenzy talking about how “conservatives” were launching conspiracy theories. Well, that’s handy for the media and the Obama campaign, but it’s not just “conservatives” who are confused by a full 0.3% drop in unemployment when only 114k jobs were created.
…. read more HERE
CANADIAN SUMMARY:
Leibovit Volume Reversal analysis now projects the TSX to first 13,029 and then possibly 13,529 in the months ahead based on technical action this past week!
Normally, we would expect to see a retracement back to the 12,250-12,300 zone first. Canadian equities moved higher on Thursday as the TSX Composite rose 88.21 points, or 0.71% to 12,447.68.
Note: The Great Mark Leibovit of VRTrader is Michael Campbell’s Oct 6th Money TalksGuest
CANADIAN TSX Venture:
The Venture Composite moved higher on Thursday as it rose 15.63 points or 1.18% to 1,340.85.
Resistance: 1348, 1436, 1473, 1573, 1588, 1609, 1650, 1696, 1771, 1804, 1814, 1833, 1851, 1954, 2107, 2127, 2254, 2291, 2400, 2465, 2535, 2575. Support: 1283, 1215, 1172, 1162, 1153, 950.
THE CANADIAN DOLLAR (using the FXC Exchange Traded Fund):
The Canadian Dollar moved higher on Thursday after a top Bank of Canada official suggested that rising interest rates are still a medium-term possibility. FXC rose .76 to 101.41.
Resistance is 103.08, 105.59, 108.00, 110.00, 113.00. Support is 95.30, 94.72, 93.20, 92.50 91.82, 91.00, 89.75, 87.50 and 85.18.
The Bank of Canada is still looking at the possibility of raising interest rates, but also believes there is some slack in the labour market that has not been taken up by the recovering economy, a top official said on Thursday. Tiff Macklem, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, maintained the hawkish tone the bank first adopted in April in a speech to a business audience in Winnipeg, Manitoba. “To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 percent inflation target over the medium term,” he said, using language identical to the bank’s September 5 rate announcement. The Bank of Canada has held its key overnight target at 1 percent since mid-2010, but this year it resumed signaling its intention to tighten policy. The Canadian economy has recovered more quickly from the 2008- 09 recession than its Western peers. Most of Canada’s primary dealers expect the bank to hold rates steady until the second half of 2013 because of pressures from the troubled European and U.S. economies and slowing Chinese growth. No change is expected at the bank’s next rate announcement on October 23. While the country’s job market has recovered more quickly from the recession than in other countries, it still has a ways to go, Macklem said. The central bank closely monitors labor conditions to assess how fast the economy is growing and when a rate hike might be warranted.”With a relatively quick recovery in employment, much of the slack in the labour market following the 2009 recession has been taken up. Nevertheless, most indicators suggest that some slack remains,” Macklem said. The comments indicated the bank believes the overall economy has not yet reached its full capacity either, suggesting it may be in no rush to tighten monetary policy. “Gauging the tightness of the labour market is a key element in assessing how close the economy is operating relative to its capacity, which, in turn, is an important indicator of inflationary pressures,” Macklem said. Growth has to exceed an annualized 2.0 percent for excess capacity to be absorbed, according to calculations by the Bank of Canada, which has predicted third quarter growth would rise to 2.0 percent from a revised 1.9 percent in the second. Growth expectations are fairly tepid after downward revisions to June gross domestic product growth neutralized an unexpected 0.2 percent monthly gain in July. Annual inflation in August was well below the bank’s 2 percent target.
Mark Leibovit
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The first Presidential Debate is out of the way.
President Obama didn’t come with his “A” game. In fact, he came with no game. Politicians are like cats in that they have many lives and the President clearly used one of his nine lives up last night.
Does this mean Mitt Romney is now favored? No, but he did a good job, one that was strong enough to most likely put him seriously back in the race, especially in the key states that will determine the next President. He needs Ohio and Florida, so polls over the next few days will give an idea as to just how well Mr. Romney did in winning over some Ohioans and Floridians. Let’s not forget Colorado either.
Gold liked Romney’s performance as it is up sharply the morning after the debate. In fact it’s knocking on the door of fresh highs for 2012. Now don’t think this is solely because of one debate, it’s not. Today Turkey moved its forces to heightened alert and will be calling on NATO members to defend Turkey’s boarder with Syria after border towns in Turkey were bombed by Syria and Turkish citizens killed. Turkey can well defend itself, so Syria is crazy to be looking to start up with Syria unless Syria wants to drag Iran into this mess. Iran is reportedly moving soldiers to its border with Turkey so Middle East problems have clearly not gone away. They are simmering and will soon boil over.
Since my last report not a lot has changed on the world scene. The ECB is prepared to aid Spain. Spain hasn’t yet asked for help, since the open markets are still buying Spanish debt in bulk and at reasonable levels and Mr. Rajoy needs a better political correct time to ask for help. Spain is able to sell debt at reasonable levels because buyers of the bonds expect Spain to ask for help from the ECB very soon, which will increase the value of the bonds.
Greece has not reached a deal with the troika on releasing the next round of financing as the troika doesn’t think the plan proposed to save billions of Euros in 2013 and 2014 is credible. In fact there were reports today that Spain, the Netherlands and Finland want to postpone the decision on releasing the next 31.5 billion euro tranche of Greek bailout aid until the Nov 12 meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.
Israel said it won’t attack Iran until the spring. Syria attacked Turkey overnight and Iran is readying its army on the Turkish border. This is gold’s environment.
Pictures do better than words at times. This is one of those times. Look at the Seasonal Chart below. I haven’t changed it in months.
Prices continue to follow the historical picture of rising prices from August, now through September and possibly into year end. There’s little doubt that at this point in time, the above pattern is at work and the fundamentals at work support it.
In my last report, written about 3-weeks ago I wrote that; ”I have been looking for the 1775-1800 range to be the first resistance point, but never expected it to be hit this early into the seasonal cycle.” Here we are only in mid September and 1775 has already been hit, with the strongest seasonal part of the year ahead. To me this means there’s room for more gains on the horizon.”
What more can be said. Prices are trading against the $1800 price level now and I see more gains ahead, but ones that have to be fought stubbornly for. Not ones off of sudden soaring drives higher.
Monthly Chart
The above Monthly Chart pattern remains in a bullish mode with each high being higher than a previous high, each low higher than a previous lows and prices staying over the 18-Month Moving Average of Closing Prices. Only getting back under 1554.4 would at this time negate the bullish chart pattern.
I labeled the Bollinger Band Top on the above chart. Its value currently comes in at 1843.9 at this time. Given that the Slow Stochastic Study is not overbought, this seems a reasonable upside target.
Keep in mind that Monthly Charts move very slowly as each line on the above chart represents about 22-business days. In order for gold to get under 1554.4., prices would have to drop nearly $245, not an event that seems likely in the intermediate term.
Weekly Chart
The Weekly Chart is very bullish as it has an embedded Slow Stochastic reading. This can be seen on the bottom graph on the above chart. When both the “red” K-line and the “gold” D-line are going sideways over an 80-reading for several weeks in a row, I say this study is locked in…embedded. To me this means that those bullish have control of the market and that prices should be pressured to move higher.
A sign that the uptrend is going to correct would come when the red line closes under 80. I don’t see this current chart formation as being close to that occurring, so I remain bullish for that reason.
The 18-Day Moving Average of Closes, the red line running through the Weekly Chart Data, is well under the last break low of 1735.8. This means that this Moving Average is not going to provide an entry point if prices are going to continue moving higher now.
Anywhere you decide to enter, the number as I see it that you don’t want broken is 1735.8 as that would destroy the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In fact, I am thinking that 1735.8 should not be seen again in 2012 if the bull case is going to hold through year end.
Daily Chart
I’ve placed an image of a bottle on this chart and no, it’s not due to a drinking issue.
I often mention how Bollinger Bands widen out and narrow in. If you look at the bands and the bottle, you can see somewhat similar shaping. As the Bands narrow in, market pressure builds up behind the bottleneck. The narrower the neck gets, the powerful the move when it break out. You might say when the pressure blasts out of the neck. At that time prices move to widen the bands out and the process enters a trend stage.
Gold is in an uptrend. The red low arrows and green high arrows show that the market is making higher highs and higher lows over the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes, shown as the red line. Next upside target is the Bollinger Band Top of 1798.8.
Whether this chart pattern runs out of pressure or “blasts” out of the neck of the bottle so to speak has to do with what the Slow Stochastic Reading does. If it embeds, I expect a move towards $1850 an ounce. If not, I expect prices to trade a bit more sideways and still resolve to higher prices.
What could hurt the Daily Chart is getting under 1773, the last break low. Bears might say that if 1773 were taken out, a pullback to the Bollinger Band, currently near 1739.6 would be a downside target.
Summary
I think you should get long or be looking to get long gold. I will be covering where in my Twice Daily Updates for my subscribers, as I see events unfold.
Please call you Ira Epstein Division of the Linn Group for more specifics.
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Investors are concerned about inflation. But how can investors attempt to inflation-proof their portfolios? Buy TIPS? Short Treasury bonds? Stocks? Real Estate? Commodities? Gold? Currencies? Or should investors regard those warnings about inflation as fear mongering?
Indeed, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its latest round of quantitative easing (“QE3”), gauges of future inflation expectations spiked. In our assessment, the market reacted strongly as it became apparent that the Fed is moving away from its focus on inflation to a focus on employment. We believe the Fed wants to raise the price level so as to bail out millions of homeowners that are ‘under water’, i.e. owe more on their homes than they are worth. Fed Chair Bernanke considers a healthy housing market to be key to healthy consumer spending (see our Merk Insight Don’t worry, be Happy).
Judging from the market reaction to QE3, fears about future inflation are warranted. Having said that, market fears about looming inflation have calmed down a bit since the initial flare up. Could it be this calming of the market is due to the fact that the Fed is intervening in the TIPS market? TIPS are “inflation protected” Treasury securities that are linked to the Consumer Price Index. Investors buying TIPS do so in the hope that their purchasing power might be protected. When the Fed intervenes in the market to buy TIPS (or any other security for that matter), such securities are intentionally over-priced, raising doubt as to whether investors are truly “protected” from inflation. It’s not just investors that now have more limited access to measuring inflation expectations – it’s also the Fed itself. By managing the entire yield curve (short-term through long-term interest rates), we believe the Fed has blindfolded itself, as it has taken away one of the most important gauges about the health of the economy. Aside from the Fed’s intervention in the TIPS market, the government is free to change the inflation adjustment factor employed in TIPS before the securities mature. TIPS payouts are adjusted using the consumer price index (CPI), which has seen methodology changes many times. When the recent debt ceiling impasse was discussed, both Republicans and Democrats talked in favor of changing the CPI definition so that it would nominally live up to inflation linked entitlement promises while clearly eroding the purchasing power of such payouts. Even without such gimmickry, the CPI may not be reflective of the basket of goods and services consumed by investors as they approach retirement given, for example, that healthcare may comprise an ever-increasing part of one’s spending. Alas, much of investing is about trying to preserve purchasing power and, alas, buying TIPS may not provide adequate protection.
If one is negative about the inflation outlook, why not simply short Treasuries, either directly or through ETFs? While we are pessimistic about the long-term outlook of Treasuries, it can be very costly to short them, given that – as a short seller – one has to continuously pay the interest of the securities one shorts. If one buys an ETF shorting Treasuries, the cost of the ETF is to be added. Shorting Treasuries might make sense for investors that are good at market timing. However, calling the top in major bubbles is rather difficult, just reflect on former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech years ahead of the stock market collapse in 2000; similarly, those that saw the bubble in the housing market coming didn’t necessarily get the timing right.
If TIPS don’t provide enough bang for the buck, and shorting Treasuries can be costly, what about buyingstocks? Bernanke appears to use every opportunity possible to praise the benefits QE has on rising stock prices. While we agree that QE has pushed stock prices higher, it may be dangerous for the Fed to praise this link given that it raises expectations of more Fed easing whenever the markets plunge (see Merk Insight: Bernanke Put). For example, how many investors buy Cisco 1 shares because of the great management skills of CEO John Chambers as compared to those who buy because of QE3? We pose this question because stocks are rather volatile; not only are stocks volatile, but the volatility of stocks can be all over the place. Historically, the annualized standard deviation of the S&P 500 index hovers in the mid 20% range, with outbursts into the 40% range in 2008. So why are investors taking on the “noise” of the stock market, when the reason they invest is because of QE? Indeed, our analysis shows that investors appear to be ever more chasing the next perceived intervention by policy makers rather than investing based on fundamentals. That’s not only bad for capital formation (these misallocations are summarily referred to as “bubbles” these days), but also suggests that we might want to look for a more direct way to take a position on what we call the “mania” of policy makers.
Talking about policy makers: you might not agree with them, but if there is one good thing to be said about our policy makers, it is that they may be quite predictable.
What about real estate? In the U.S., depending on where one lives, the real estate market has bottomed out or appears to be bottoming out. With what appears to be the Fed’s razor sharp focus on real estate, it might be foolish to bet against the Fed. Indeed, yours truly bought a property in Palo Alto in late 2009. Unlike other real assets, keep in mind that real estate is often purchased with borrowed money; as such, it is prone to speculative bubbles such as the most recent episode. Investing in REITs might allow one to allocate a smaller share of one’s portfolio to real estate; a downside of REITs is that they tend to be highly correlated with equity markets. As policy makers steer equity prices, everything appears to be ever more highly correlated, investors may want to look for something that offers low correlation to other investments.
That brings us to commodities. In a world where policy makers appear to favor growth at just about any cost, commodity prices have been beneficiaries. As we have seen in recent weeks, it is not a one-way street, as dynamics within the market can be rather complex. The dynamics for commodities within agriculture differ from those in metals or energy. There are special considerations in storing and delivering many commodities, creating challenges for investors. We agree that commodities might do well in the long run, but urge investors to consider all the risks that come with investing in commodities. Notably, commodities can have stretches of low volatility, luring investors to jump in, only to be greeted with a jolt that can be rather hazardous to one’s wealth. As a simple rule of thumb: if you can’t sleep at night with your investment, you own too much of it.
Gold is worth singling out as the one commodity that has arguably the least industrial use. Rather than writing gold off as a barbaric relic, we like gold: its relative simplicity might make it the investment purest in reflecting monetary policy. In the medium term, we believe gold may be a good inflation hedge. But, again, keep in mind that price movements can be rather volatile. Even staunch gold bugs rarely have all their assets in gold.
This leads us to currencies as a potentially attractive way to diversify beyond gold. The Chinese have long diversified their reserves to a basket of currencies, in an effort to mitigate their U.S. dollar exposure. Some say currencies are difficult to understand. We argue that it is far easier to understand the dynamics of ten major currencies, as well as others worth monitoring, than to understand the dynamics of thousands of stocks. Importantly, we believe the currency markets might be an ideal place to take a position on the mania of policy makers. Indeed, as we believe that the Fed might want to debase the U.S. dollar (Please see Fed may want to debase dollar), why not express that view in the currency markets? Unlike their reputation, currencies are far less volatile than equities: if one does not employ leverage, a move in the euro by 1 cent is rather small on a percentage basis. The U.S. dollar index has historically had an annualized standard deviation of returns in the low teens; in 2008, that volatility rose a tad, approaching the mid-teens. For investors looking for predictability on the risks in a portfolio, the currency markets have historically shown a far more consistent risk profile than equities or many other asset classes. A corollary is that during market downturns, unlevered currency strategies may offer some downside protection given the lower risk profile. This clearly doesn’t mean an investment in currencies is safe; but managed currency risk can be seen as an opportunity given the purchasing power risk taken by holding U.S. dollars.
If investors agree that the Fed: a) may want to have – or at least accept – higher inflation; and b) may not readily see the warning signs of higher inflation, then it appears to us prudent to take the risk of higher inflation into account. Indeed, for those managing money on behalf of others, it might be their fiduciary duty to take that risk into account. Those that ignore the risk of inflation might do so at their own peril. Many investors might feel they can take action once inflation is obvious. “Obvious” is in the eye of the beholder: just as we preferred to be early in warning about the crisis in 2008, it appeared rather challenging to reposition one’s portfolio in October 2008. Gold has gone up by a factor of about 7 since its lows. The dollar has fallen relative to a basket of currencies over the past 10, 30 and 100 years: in our assessment, we simply have the better printing press. Hedging inflation risk isn’t about being right about the future; it’s about the risk of being right.
Axel Merk
Axel Merk is President and Chief Investment Officer, Merk Investments
Merk Investments, Manager of the Merk Funds
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