Energy & Commodities

The Real Reason Behind Oil Price Rises

Nowadays the energy picture is confusing at best as the more information we are shown the more blurred our vision seems to become. Mixed messages, poor reporting and a media hungry to sensationalize anything it thinks can grab a headline have led to many wondering what the true energy situation is. We hear numerous reports on how the shale revolution will transform the energy sector, why alternatives are just around the corner, why advances in oilfield extraction techniques and new finds will help to lower oil prices. Yet no sooner have we read these rosy reports than we are bombarded with negative news on the Middle East, on why alternatives will never compete, on peak oil and declining oil production.

So where do we really stand? 

In the interview, James discusses:

•    Why we shouldn’t get too excited with the shale revolution
•    The “Real” cause of high oil prices
•    The incredible opportunity presented by natural gas
•    Why long term oil prices will creep upwards
•    The geopolitical hotspots that could cause an oil price spike
•    Why sanctions could cause Iran to lash out
•    Why speculators and oil companies are not to blame for high oil prices.
•    Changes we can expect to see under a Romney Administration
•    Why Short term oil price forecasts are worthless
•    Peak oil & Daniel Yergin

read the interview HERE 

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Gold and silver prices both advanced by two and four per cent respectively as Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke delivered his eagerly-awaited policy statement at Jackson Hole today that fell short of delivering QE3 money printing but strongly supported the use of the policy when it was needed. Precious metals took this as a signal that the US dollar is on a down-slope.

Mr Bernanke said that past QE policy had been successful and that this is being held in reserve. He would not rule out further bond purchases to boost growth and reduce unemployment, which he called a “grave concern.”

“The costs of nontraditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant,” Bernanke 

Marc Faber : Ben Bernanke says well the market occasionally fails and so on and so forth but at no time was it mentioned that actually the failure was not the free market the failure was that the free market was not allowed to operate because under the free market system , Mexico would have gone bankrupt in 1994 , LTCM in 1998 , we wouldn’t have because of ultra expendituary monetary policies the housing bubble and the housing bust and the FED encouraging people to take out sub-prime loans and so forth and so on , so we had a series of interventions that led to the crisis , now the FED and other central banks just turn around and tell you ‘well if we had not eased massively after 2007 the crisis would be much worse’ what they are not telling you is that they caused the crisis – in Bloomberg Radio Interview HERE

Is Central Bank Buying Just a Driving Force Behind Gold or Much More?!

by Julian D.W. Phillips

In the same year we saw the arrival of emerging nation’s central banks into the gold market as buyers. Since then, they’ve set a pattern of buying gold that continues as a driving force behind the gold price even today. In this article, we look at these events and other monetary developments in the gold market to see what to expect in the days and months ahead.

Which Central Banks are Buying Gold and Why?

As you have seen in our newsletter in the Table of Central Banks buying and selling gold, it is the emerging nation’s central banks whose reserves have been growing strongly, that have led the way in buying gold for their reserves. Their aim is to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and other leading world currencies and to buy gold as a counter weight to those currencies.

These central banks are based in Asia, the Middle East, South America, etc. They include:

Russia – Bangladesh – Philippines – Saudi Arabia – Thailand – Belarus – Venezuela – India – Sri Lanka – Mauritius – Mexico – Bolivia – Colombia – South Korea – Turkey – Kazakhstan – Tajikistan – Serbia – Ukraine – Mongolia – Malta – Greece – Argentina.

The underlying reason why they’re buying and why the European signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement stopped selling is because they all consider gold to be an important Reserve Asset and as the head of the Bundesbank put it, “gold is a counter to the swings of the dollar”. Neatly put, but isn’t there more to this than simply countering the swings of the dollar?

Since gold was at $300 an ounce in 1979 right through to 2005 gold has been at that level or higher. Now it is at $1,660, five and a half times higher, and the dollar is not five and a half times lower than other currencies. Gold has risen in all currencies including the euro which was well below €300 to an ounce of gold and is now at €1,321 more than four times higher than then.

Clearly, gold adds further ingredients to national reserves as these numbers demonstrate in part. The emerging world is as aware of gold’s value in their reserves as are the developed world’s central banks and are doing something about it before there are potentially devastating developments in the global monetary system.

Why Central Banks of the U.S., Germany, France and Italy Hold 70%+ of Their Reserves in Gold

Having stated that they were sellers of gold from 1999 onwards through until now, Europe’s signatory central banks to the CBGA gave the impression before 1999 that their gold holding weighed heavily above the gold market. This combined with accelerated mining of gold as the price was dropping forced the gold price down and pushed the developed world to more and more dependence of the dollar then the euro. But in reality central banks were not trying to get rid of their gold holdings. Some aimed at selling 20% of their reserves in total, while others like Germany, did not sell any of their gold, despite being signatories to the agreement.  Some like the U.K. and Switzerland appeared to gullibly sell half of their reserves.

Then in 2009 all the signatories stopped selling except for small amounts for the minting of gold coins. This left the holding of European banks at these levels:

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For such an archaic reserve asset, it is doing very well in terms of its price moves. But the governments of the developed world knew that if their 40-year long experiment with un-backed paper money were to go wrong then gold could come to their rescue and, my goodness, it has!

The now incumbent money managers may feel surprised at the way we have described currencies, i.e. as an experiment, but since Nixon cut the link of gold to currencies back in 1971, and experiment is what we’ve had. Now, the money experts and leaders of the world –looking at all the ways in which governments across the developed world have abused paper money and particularly national debt levels— can see the sinking level of confidence in such money both inside and outside the developed world. What can pull them from the brink of disaster if confidence in the two leading developed world currencies (and leading reserve currencies) collapses? What can pull the world’s leading commercial banks –particularly those fused at the hip to government in their asset portfolios— from collapse?

Having watched the credit crunch morph into the Eurozone debt crisis and potentially return across the Atlantic by year’s end to see the U.S. once again fighting over-indebtedness, developed world central and commercial banks realize that whatever their dislike of the discipline of gold and its unmanageability, it will allow them to harness a confidence that currencies are failing to do currently. Gold is also facilitating loans and liquidity that goes far beyond its price.

The structural benefits of gold are now showing through clearly in gold and the need to side-line it from the monetary system is proving a dangerous handicap for the monetary system. Hence, Basel III discussion taking place now, to be implemented from January 1st 2013.

In the 2nd Part of the Article, We Explore:

  • Basel III and its implications for gold and its price.
  • How gold is returning to the monetary system right now in the banking system.
  • Will the ‘powers-that-be’ continue to allow gold to be privately owned [including in gold ETFs.
  • How you can protect yourself against gold confiscation even if held in Switzerland or elsewhere.

Get the 2nd Part of Article and Much More!

Subscribe now @

www.GoldForecaster.com

www.SilverForecaster.com


Will we Collapse by August 2013?

ecm-wave-2011-2020

“We are entering the age of Atlas Shrugged. Capital is contracting. Global investing is starting to collapse. We are headed into something far worse than the Protectionism of the Great Depression”.

Former Clients familiar with the Economic Confidence Model have asked is this a rapidly advancing cycle as was the cast in 1989? The Answer to that question appears to be YES! There, we had the 1987 Crash on the half cycle followed by the collapse of Japan in 1989, and then the rise and fall of South East Asia as the US S&P 5oo bottomed precisely with the low of that wave in 1994. The accuracy was astonishing from the 1987 Crash right to the day, the peak in Japan 1989.95, and then the precise day of the low in 1994. This wave appears to be working in a very similar manner. This means August 7th, 2013 we must be very careful about next year. We will be looking at the global markets at the upcoming conferences (San Diego-Bangkok-Berlin) around the world. So yes! This is a very serious development. We may not last until 2015.75 and that could be the complete economic meltdown.

The US Government is closing its Iron Curtain around everything. Not only are European banks throwing Americans out, HSBC will not deal with Americans in Asia, American Express will not issue any card to an American even working for a foreign company outside the USA. The Post Office will not allow you to mail any cash. European mutual funds are now refusing to accept American clients and US mutual funds are starting to retaliate refusing to accept Europeans. Even the Hedge funds are being put at risk from draconian US laws that any foreign entity who deals with an American, must report what that American is doing overseas or their own assets will be confiscated in the USA. This whole thing is going completely nuts. This is not  freedom, justice for all, nor “capitalism” – it is authoritarianism! Any American who even lives overseas owes taxes to the USA because he was BORN American. There is no “fair share” because you used or even received anything. Americans have become economic slaves and everything they produce or own is subject to the whims of the government pleasure.

Everything possible is being done to confiscate wealth. This is rapidly causing the collapse in the VELOCITY of money and is spiraling the global economy into a dark crater. This is all to pay bondholders. Those who have been counting on HYPERINFLATION fail to realize that the bankers will not stand for that. They demand the world be shaken down to its roots. We are entering the age of Atlas Shrugged. Capital is contracting. Global investing is starting to collapse. We are headed into something far worse than the Protectionism of the Great Depression. This is how you destroy freedom and civilization. So while they keep the idiots focused on abortion and gay marriage as the ONLY important issues to waste their votes, your economic future is being destroyed. The youth are not getting married because they cannot afford it and may be only the gays will be left who want to marry at the end of the day. Unemployment among the youth is outrageous. It has exceeded 50% in Spain and this was the cause behind gangs roaming in Philadelphia attacking random people on the street as well as in London. Unemployment among minority youth in the USA has exceeded 50%. By next year, it looks like HYPERINFLATION would have been a blessing. This is the worst of the worst.

Why Jim Rogers Favors Silver ETFs

Noted commodities investor Jim Rogers has recently pointed to silver as a metal of choice over gold for the current economic climate. [Rogers: Use Commodity ETFs to Profit from Supply Shortages

  • “Governments print money – that’s all they know. So own real assets like silver and rise and you’ll survive,” Rogers said.
  • Rogers owns all the metals but said if he had to buy one today, it would be silver.
  • “Gold is up 11 years in a row. Gold is consolidating now, a well-deserved consolidation. I own gold, I’m not selling gold. If gold goes down, I’ll buy more.”
  • He’s bullish gold will eventually go well over $2,000 an ounce but said corrections of between 30% and 40% are normal.
Rogers notes that silver’s volatility makes it the perfect precious metal for Fall, once the widely expected Fed decision to implement a Quantitative Easing 3 is announced.  “A huge amount of money will come into commodities the next decade as people learn about supply shortages. Very few people are invested in real assets.”

“Exchange traded products are convenient for commodities. I always buy exchange traded products and it’s terrific,” Rogers said at the June Alts Virtual Summit co-produced by ETFtrends.

Ed Note: Here are 3 Silver ETF’s

  • iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
  • Silver Miners ETF (SIL)
  • PowerShares DB Silver ETF (DBS)

“Something is finally happening with silver. The chart below shows silver up five days running, and on rising volume. Let’s keep an eye on “the poor man’s gold.” The silver-to-gold ratio was out of whack — silver was too cheap compared with gold. One ounce of gold will buy 32.7 ounces of silver. The ratio should be nearer 20 or even less. According to RSI silver is now overbought.”Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters Aug 30/2012
 

“Consider this: Silver is the only major commodity not to have reached a new all-time high in this bull market; silver is still cheaper than it was 32 years ago, prices are astonishingly depressed,” Peter Cooper wrote for Resource Investor.  [Silver ETFs Not Shining in 2012]. “Investment demand for precious metals will take over in any case from industrial demand. And once the gold price heads up then silver will follow. You get 50 times more silver for your money than gold,” Cooper also wrote HERE

Gold investing has long dominated the precious metals space, as investors have used this ultra-popular metal as both a trading/speculative instrument as well as an integral part of a longer term strategy. While silver still has a large presence in the financial world, it is not often that a big name steps into the limelight and touts this white metal over its gold counterpart,” wrote Jared Cummings for Commodity HQ.

The silver market has seen increased interest as the U.S. dollar has weakened. Commodity funds have been seen gains and the silver market has attracted much investor interest.

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Best Bull Signal Since $700 Bottom Oct ’08

gold-trade-options-since-2008

“A new and important bullish indicator for the gold market is that gold calls are at highs not seen since the October 2008 low as option traders go long gold in the belief that it will go higher.

It suggests that option traders believe that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hint at or announce additional money printing and monetary easing at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium (Friday Aug 31st)

Alternatively, it suggests that they are bullish on gold due to the risks posed to the dollar and the risk of inflation taking off.

Option traders are regarded as savvier and tend to be more sophisticated then the more speculative futures traders.”

Mark goes on to say:

“Bernanke may again obfuscate and not give clear guidance regarding monetary policy and further QE.

However the smart money such as PIMCO’s Bill Gross, Jim Rogers, John Paulson and others believe that further QE and money printing remain inevitable. We would concur and advise investors to fade out the short term noise emanating from Jackson Hole and from assorted policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic and focus on the reality that further monetary easing and currency debasement will continue for the foreseeable future.”

.…much more and 3 more charts HERE