Gold & Precious Metals

1. The gold market feels like the Indy 500 track on race day.  All the cars of the precious metals sector are revving their engines on the start line.        

2. The junior gold stock sector seems to be revving its engine the loudest of all.  To get a visual picture of why I hear that sound, please click here now.

3. I’ve compared GDXJ to CDNX, and you can see that a head & shoulders bottom pattern has formed, suggesting that junior gold stocks are poised to significantly outperform the general junior resource sector.

4. Both the GDXJ daily chart and the 30 minute chart have very bullish patterns in play.  Please click here now.  Indicators like MACD are moving higher and selling has dried up.

5.    When few sellers remain in an oversold market, strongly bullish news can send the price higher surprisingly quickly.

6.    Please click here now.  This 30 minute chart showcases an island bottom.  GDXJ is currently “chewing” at resistance in the $19 area.

7.    I expect GDXJ will burst through that resistance and charge higher, but it’s important to remember that charts show investors a picture of what is probable, not what is guaranteed.

8.    The most probable scenario indicated is that GDXJ makes its way to the dotted black line I highlighted on the daily chart at $27.16, but Ben Bernanke could throw a monkey wrench into our victory dance. 

9.    Dr. Bernanke is scheduled to speak publicly today and tomorrow. There’s no question that the “recovery” has lost steam, and it would seem logical that anything he says should be supportive for gold.

….read points 10-24 HERE

Nine ways to a fast sale

Oh my. Oh my. The market is turning. The market is crashing, the depression is coming, terrible things will befall us. That is the content of some email I am receiving.

Yes, the market is turning in some areas – particularly in small-town B.C. – and yes, listings are higher and sales are down 30 per cent in some areas.

What you need is a good marketing effort. All good marketing efforts start as a sound, basic plan and then evolve to fit the particular property and situation. Cut from whole cloth and then tailormade, such a plan will incorporate innovative new ideas and “rearrange” old ones.

Here then, are a few:

· Most important: interview and select a quality realtor, from two or three recommended ones. Have them make a market evaluation – in writing – and an action plan on how best to market your property. Go see all the comparables used in the evaluation. Pick the realtor whose comparables and action plan makes the most sense to you. Get somebody who knows your neighbourhood intimately and who’s enthusiastic about your home. Insist on weekly contact … even if there is “nothing happening.” Be the squeaky wheel.

· Price your home right. Yes, we all need and want the best price, as in the highest price, for our abode. But be realistic. Ask yourself: “If I were the buyer, would I pay the price I am asking for this place?” Real estate is cyclical and we may be nearing the end of this cycle. If you want to sell, price it just below the competition, not what you could have received last year.

· The more exposure, the better:

a) Ensure your home is listed on the Multiple Listing Service and on the agent’s website/tour/ agents open house ASAP.

b) Be with it. You or your realtor use your daily papers, The Vancouver Sun and The Province – in print and online – craigslist.com and kijiji.ca; the real estate section. People surf. Use Facebook, LinkedIn or Twitter postings from time to time. Talk about one great feature of your home, don’t write a book. It also might attract that foreign buyer.

· Create a “Benefit and Feature” sheet for your home. List every good point, every benefit that your property and your neighbourhood enjoys. Create a “Pick-Up” Box and augment the realtor’s “For Sale” sign with it. Such as an open-topped container filled with the above mentioned feature sheets for pick up.

· Stage your home! Have a professional come in and help. Stand in the doorway to find each room’s focal point, and use furniture placement to highlight that. The back of your sofa shouldn’t block the view of the fireplace, for example. Remove any extraneous pieces of furniture. “Re-position” them into another room – or into storage altogether.

· De-clutter and then de-clutter again. Depersonalize and neutralize. The first items that should go in those packing boxes: family photos, collections and just about anything else that says “you.” Show the home from its best possible side. Have people see how they would feel if they owned the home. Developers have show suites and show homes for a reason.

· First impressions do count. Fix up your home but do it with “resale” in mind – take care of the eye-catching areas and don’t waste the effort (and money) on the rest. Fix the porch or entrance, that wobbly front step or squeaky door. Repaint the front door, bathrooms and kitchen. Use general (but modern) neutral colours only. Again, don’t spend a fortune on the remodelling; you won’t get your money back. If any remodelling is done spend it all in the kitchen and baths. Clean like a fiend. Q-Tip clean!

· Get rid of the junk. A bright place is a happy place. Clean up the basement areas. Ditto for the stairwells and closets. If you’ve got too much junk and other indispensable basement stuff piled up, have it stored off-site during the selling period. (It’s inexpensive.) . Sell the sizzle. Add lights along the walkway, put big brass house numbers up and a brass mailbox on your door. Kick up the curb appeal. Garden gnomes are a no-no. Front landscaping is what the buyer sees first.

Always remember: this is your house we’re discussing. You have the right to demand an attentive, professional, upbeat realtor; a person who creates a solid, comprehensive action plan (in writing) and does so in a measurable way (number of showings, numbers of interested buyers, etc.).

A good realtor keeps you informed all the way. A poor realtor won’t. The realtor has the right to ask you for your help: Clean up the yard and space, tie up the dog and hide the dirty laundry (please!).

Insist that your realtor be focused, but be equally as focused. There is no such thing as accidental success. It’s always earned and always comes with a price. The price of doing the work of being prepared with a good measurable plan of action is nothing compared to the maximum price you get for your home.

OVERSEAS BUYERS NEED SPECIAL CONSIDERATION

If your property appeals to overseas buyers, ensure your agent understands how to deal with questions of feng shui (literally “wind and water”). It’s the Asian philosophy in which a building’s exterior and interior elements, site placement and orientation, landscaping and so forth can and will deeply affect the building’s “luck.”

The agent should be able to identify – and take advantage of – benefits readily apparent to a feng shuiaware buyer. Benefits, such as the number “8” in a street address, a high vista and an interior which doesn’t have a clear line of sight from front door to back. (Any good fortune will flow right out the door.) Conversely, the agent should be aware of any potential problems, so they can be counteracted. For instance, the number “4” is to be avoided (it sounds disturbingly like the word “death”) and a home placed on the top of a T-junction is to be shunned. (Any bad luck in the neighbourhood will come howling right up the street and into the house.) Don’t smile. After all, here in North America there’s many a condo tower marketed and somehow built without having the “benefit” of a 13th floor.

Published in the Vancouver Sun, April 6, 2012

Ozzie Jurock is a senior real estate adviser and the publisher of Jurock’s Real Estate Insider. He can be reached by at oz@jurock.com or Jurock.com.

Related Links:

ozzie-podium2

 

Dare Defy the Bond Bubble? Here’s the Action to Take

chart ws_bond_10yearyield_201271611932-09
Commentary 
 
Does one dare defy the bond bubble? Many analysts, including us, often explain the move into US Treasuries as a flight to safety when investors are faced with global economic risk. Indeed, there is a long list of serious risks out there. And the US has the deepest and most efficient capital markets. But we read today another perspective – that the surge in bond prices is actually a result of risk taking (not risk aversion.) More specifically, since the onset of QE and the rollercoaster of expectations for more, bond traders buy up bonds ahead of Federal Reserve bond manipulation (i.e. QE.) And then they sell once more QE is actually announced – a “sell the news” sort of thing. Perhaps this makes sense – it’s a slightly different phase during the risk-taking cycles we’ve seen develop since policymakers took direct responsibility for keeping markets stable. 
 
The Federal Reserve has suggested their unofficial third mandate is to support the wealth effect of a rising stock market. Naturally, QE has very much been positively correlated with share prices. But while buying bonds ahead of QE can be considered a risk-taking trade, it is negatively correlated with QE announcements. But … Morgan Stanley noted back in early June (link above) that a rally in the markets was correlated both with QE announcements and also with improvement in macroeconomic data. Thus, a sell-off in bonds makes sense if macro data was improving (i.e. risks declining.) We don’t expect a QE announcement anytime soon. But even still, this time around we tend to think simultaneous improvements in macro data will be MIA if the Fed does announce QE3. This is when we’ll find out if the bond bubble is a risk-taking trade or a flight to safety. 
 
Action 
 
Headlines suggest the market is anxiously awaiting Ben Bernanke’s semiannual testomony this afternoon and then again tomorrow. Not us. It will be business as usual – admission of economic softness, recognition of future growth headwinds, a nod to the employment situation, and the normal reassurances of QE-if-needed. Based on the current state of the US economy and markets, we think it is too early for Ben to unleash QE3. But if Ben has received a few phone calls from his counterparts overseas, then maybe peer pressure will get him to pull some unexpected doves out of his hat. Leading up to this testimony at 10 am Eastern, we think the risk for markets is to the downside. 

 

 Quote 

“The true evil of inflation is that newly created money benefits politically favored financial interests, especially banks, on the front end. Over time, however, the net result of monetary inflation is always the devaluation of savings and purchasing power. This devaluation discourages saving, which is the key to capital accumulation and investment in a healthy economy.” –Ron Paul 

Of Interest 

Merkel Gives No Ground on Bank Oversight (Businessweek) 

Europe’s banks face tougher demands (FT Adviser) 

coft july16

Morgan Stanley Sees QE3 Rally Lasting Hours Not Week (ZeroHedge, June 6

Be Careful!: “The LIBOR Scandal Is “Huge”

The LIBOR scandal that has engulfed London’s financial and political elites is entering its third week and picking up steam on this side of the Atlantic.

Among the latest developments:

  • The NY Times reports the Justice Department’s criminal division is “building cases against several financial institutions and their employees.”
  • State Attorneys General in New York and Connecticut are investigating whether states incurred losses because of LIBOR manipulation which “could lead to a wider multi-state enforcement action,” The WSJ reports.
  • Top officials of the British version of the SEC, the Financial Services Authority, will testify before Parliament on why regulators failed to respond to concerns about LIBOR rigging going back to 2008. Congress is set to hold similarly themed hearings later this week and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is almost certain to be asked about the matter when he testifies on Capitol Hill Tuesday and Wednesday.

Comment via Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters:

“This is probably a good time to re-post a chart of GDOW, which is the Global Dow, an equal-weighted index of 150 blue chip stocks from around the world. GDOW provides a good insight as to the health of the world’s stock markets. The GDOW index is now in a head & shoulders formation with support at 1700. Support at 1700 better hold! If GDOW breaks below 1700, I think it will signal a world recession or depression. .Listening to the financial news, it all seems to be about four matters: (1) US unemployment (2) the state of China’s finances (3) whether the Fed will pull the QE3 trigger or not and (4) the Libor mess.

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In the accompanying video, taped Friday, I discuss the scandal with former New York Governor and Wall Street prosecutor Eliot Spitzer.

“LIBOR is huge,” Spitzer says. “This is about as big as it gets in the financial world. [LIBOR] goes to the heart of every piece of debt that’s issued to consumers — your auto loan, your credit card debt.” (click on photo or HERE to view the entire interview)

Picture 5

also:

Cenk Uygur discusses how Barclay’s LIBOR scandal effects you, and how it effects the bankers that caused the scandal. Cenk also discusses the recent news that Tim Geithner knew about the scandal in 2007 and choose not to take any action. Tell us in the comment section below what you think about the LIBOR scandal.

 

 

Egyptian tycoon makes “spectacular” $500m bid for Canadian gold firm

Egypt’s second richest man Naguib Sawiris has made a $500 million bid for the Canadian gold mining group Mancha Resources, the most spectacular move yet into the yellow metal by an Arabian businessman.

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Mr Sawris confirmed to The National newspaper that talks are in progress but declined further comment, except to say La Mancha has a ‘geographically diverse portfolio of assets offering exposure to growth.’

Golden assets

La Mancha operates four gold mines in Africa and Australia. Mr Sawris and his even richer brother have amassed a multi-billion dollar fortune as the founders of Orascom Telecom and have major investments in cement, construction, fertilizers and hotels.

They have made a great deal of money by being early investors in sectors before their future value became apparent. But gold mines are a completely new field for Mr Sawris and mark a major diversification away from his past successes.

Naguib Sawiris is worth $3.1 billion and his brother Nassef $5.1 billion, according to Forbes magazine. They could well be readers of the ArabianMoney investment newsletter which has been advising such a diversification strategy for some time (subscribe here).

It certainly does not say much for the global economic outlook that a man of such wealth is turning to the yellow metal as an investor rather than redeploying money into telecommunications, for example, where he has previously done so well.

Investment logic

But if you think the global economy is going to contract and the central banks print money to try to offset that deflation then it makes a great deal of sense to invest in precious metals. The price of these assets along with food, certain commodities like oil and even real estate are likely beneficiaries of central bank money printing even while the rest of the economy struggles at best with stagnation.

In this environment taking wealth out of the stagnant sector and putting it into an asset class that will benefit from reflation is a clever one. By buying a gold company Mr Sawris is also taking a bet that the highly depressed market for gold equities will outperform the metal itself as the price of gold goes up.

That is the theory, although it has not worked for the past few years. Arguably, however, that leaves gold mining shares cheap and even more attractive to bold investors like Mr Sawris. Perhaps his move is bold enough to spark a revaluation of the sector.

 

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