Timing & trends
The bull is back…
Now is the perfect moment to own gold… Sentiment is still negative. And we have a hint of an uptrend.
This is exactly what we wait for.
In short, things are getting “less bad” in gold. And our True Wealth Systems computers tell us it’s time to buy. Based on history, we could see enormous gains over the next few months. Let me explain…
Our computers recently started flashing a rare “buy” signal on gold…
As my True Wealth Systems readers know, we track gold two ways. Our first “Gold in Currencies” system tests gold versus four of the major world currencies.
The idea is simple… We want to own gold in a bull market. But what is a gold bull market?
You might hear people say, “It’s not a bull market in gold… It’s simply a bear market in the dollar.”
You see, if the U.S. dollar is crashing against other currencies, it’s likely also going down in terms of gold. So it looks like gold is in a bull market. But what if gold is falling in terms of the euro or yen while it’s rising against the dollar? That’s not a gold bull market.
So what is a bull market in gold?
One simple definition is: When gold is going up in terms of all the world’s most important currencies, it’s a bull market in gold.
We used this definition to come up with a simple system for gold. We tested the idea on four major currencies… the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen.
If the average price of gold is up in all four currencies versus the previous month… buy gold. Repeat the next month. That’s it.
I know, it sounds too simple, but it works… We want to own gold when this system says “buy.” We’ve tested the idea on 40-plus years of data. The results are astonishing. Take a look at this chart from the most recent True Wealth Systems…
Based on history, buying a double-long gold fund when this system says “buy” is good for 41.4% annualized returns.
Yes, that’s right. This system returns over 41% a year when it flashes “buy.” Importantly, these signals are somewhat rare… Our computers say “buy” less than one-third of the time… Meaning, on average, we’ll only get about four buy signals every year. And right now, the True Wealth Systems computers tell us now is the time to buy gold and ride it higher. The thing is… We still don’t have the uptrend, based on our “Gold Uptrend” system. I’m not concerned, though… this system is a bit slow to signal. Our “Gold in Currencies” signal can be a great “early sign” of a new uptrend in gold. In short, based on our historical testing, we could be at the brink of a major breakout in gold… without a confirmed uptrend. I pored over the data and found an incredible result… In 40-plus years of testing, we’ve seen six MAJOR gold bull trades. (That doesn’t sound like many. But remember… gold went down, consistently, between 1980 and 2000.) Our “Gold in Currencies” system said “buy” before our “Gold Uptrend” system did at the beginning of every trade except one. (In that case, they signaled at the same time.) In these five cases, our “Gold in Currencies” system signaled “buy” one to three months before the “official” uptrend kicked off. However, being a few months early can “juice” our long-term gains… The average return on our five gold uptrend trades was 110%. That’s an incredible return. However, by following our “Gold in Currencies” system into the trade a few months early, we’re able to increase our average return to 133%. Importantly, every one of these trades was MORE successful because of following the currency system in early. Today, we could be on the verge of another major move in gold. Of course, we can’t know if this is the case. But simply based on history, we want to own the yellow metal when our “Gold in Currencies” system says “buy.” Historically, it’s good for 41.4% annualized returns, regardless of predicting a new uptrend. You get the idea – right now is a great time to buy gold. It is still a bit hated, and we could be on the brink of a major uptrend. Good investing, Steve |
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STOCKS – ACTION ALERT- BULL (Into the Fall)
Things aren’t looking too good in ‘River City’ (from ‘Music Man’ fame). I previously told you that I was looking for the upside gap in the S&P 500 around 1335 to be filled and that coupled with a Leibovit Negative Volume Reversal turned me cautious late last week. At that time I recommended a double-inverse ETF play for Platinum subscribers. It appears jumping back on a BUY (BULL) signal (June 29) from my previous SELL signal was premature. If the S&P 500 cannot find support here in the 1330s, I’m afraid we’re looking a possible retest or break under the June 4 low at 1266.74. Volume is negative.
Yesterday, San Bernardino (without a lot of fanfare) announced it was going to seek bankruptcy protection – the third California city to do so in the past month. Do you think the average person on the street cares or even the so-called sophisticated Wall Street trader or investor? There is an eerie complacency out there. It’s really scary. Could another ‘Flash Crash’ be lurking around the corner? If the banks can be bailed out, why not municipalities? That must be the mentality. Bernanke and gang released the minutes of the recent Fed meeting and it showed little urgency for a QE3. The problem, of course, is that QE3 or QE10 won’t solve the problem. All it will do is put more cash into the hands of the bankster vermin and drive stock prices higher. It will do little or nothing to solve the huge debt bubble and certainly won’t help the arrogant sense of entitlement that exists in the this country and the Western world. Until we’re ready to follow the path of Iceland and disavow the banks and the debt and, yes, that means bond holders and creditors will lose money, others will lose their homes, but until that occurs fiscal Armageddon remains waiting for us around the corner. We’re seeing it the bankruptcy of American cities. We’re saw it at MF Global and now at PFG. We’re seeing it in frustration of our young people who can’t find jobs, we’re seeing it in the eyes of the baby-boomers and elderly who see much of what they’ve worked for and earned being taken from them. Pumping the Dow Industrials to new highs will make the fat cats feel better, but will do little to help our nation.
Mark Leibovit’s Gold Letter, # 1 Gold Timer for 10 year period & #2 Gold Timer for 2011
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The commodities investment legend says he’s ready to buy more gold once its correction runs its course, but for now he’s shorting Europe.
Jim Rogers, the natural-resources investing guru, says the bull market in commodities he described in his 2004 book “Hot Commodities” is far from over. Speaking on the telephone with IndexUniverse.com Managing Editor Olly Ludwig, Rogers said the bull run in materials is perhaps in the bottom of the fifth inning or the top of the sixth.
Stressing that any bull run will have its setbacks, Rogers said China’s development is likely to re-accelerate, and that gold will resume its more than decade-long climb upward as central banks around the world continue their easy money policies. Rogers said he just hopes he’s smart enough to buy more gold—and a lot of it—when the yellow metal’s current correction is over.
Ludwig: What did you think of the recent central bank actions?
Rogers: I find it absurd. It’s the wrong thing to do. They are just adding to the inflationary pressures that are here, and we’re all going to have more problems down the road.
Ludwig: China’s announcement of a 25 basis point cut is decidedly different than the European central bank cutting by 25 basis points, no?
Rogers: I don’t think either one of them should have cut by 25 basis points–neither the Chinese nor the Europeans.
Ludwig: So how do you contrast the Chinese cutting rates with the excesses you perceive with the loose-money policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB?
Rogers: China doesn’t have the excesses that we have in the U.S. or even in Europe. China has huge reserves of currency, while America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. They are not comparable situations.
But as far as inflation goes, China has inflation and this is just going to make its inflation worse. If I were China—and I’m not, and there’s no reason for it to listen to me—it should keep monetary policy tight until inflation is killed. It’s not killed yet, and this is not going to help kill it.
Ludwig: Let’s talk about China for a moment. There’s a fair amount of talk that the China juggernaut is at a crossroads, that what Deng Xiaoping achieved in the past generation was the easy part, and achieving steady growth is going to be a lot harder going forward. What’s your take on that view?
Rogers: There’s no question that the first 30 years are the easiest 30 years when you’re doing something like Deng Xiaoping did. And, secondly, there will certainly always be setbacks. Any country, any company, any family, any individual that rises has setbacks along the way. That’s the way the world works. It’s normal.
And, as we just discussed, China has been trying to slow its economy for the past three years. Anyone who doesn’t understand that China is slowing down should read the newspapers. And, I as I was just saying, they’re trying to loosen up too soon. But this is part of a plan. They have been successful so far, but whether they will continue to be successful, who knows?
In America, in the 19th century, we had a horrible Civil War; we had many Depressions; we had very little rule of law; we had periodic massacres in the streets; and we had few human rights. And yet we became an extremely successful country in the 20th century.
China is going to have plenty of problems as we go along. What they’re going to be and when and why, I don’t know. But I do know there are going to be plenty of problems.
…..read next page HERE

STOCKS – ACTION ALERT – BULL
Looks like we experienced the both the best and worst of ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ yesterday and even perhaps a slice of ‘Weird Wollie Wednesday’ at the same time. As you know markets rallied early yesterday (actually quite sharply) following the ‘expected’ pattern of a rally following Monday’s weakness. Then the market started to sell-off sharply which is more attuned to a ‘Weird Wollie’ pattern.
On Friday morning I warned that a July swoon may be ahead. Equity markets reached an overbought condition and the Fourth of July fireworks show had ended. A Leibovit Negative Volume Reversal had formed and we should be heading south to at least fill the upside gap from June 27. In the S&P 500 that would equate to 1335.00. We touched 1336.27 yesterday.
Volume is negative, but we’re already approaching an oversold state. I am awaiting confirmation of a bottom before jumping back in on the long side with regard to long index ETFs, just in case this decline accelerates following somewhat the 2010 and 2011 summer patterns. Downside risk is difficult to measure during this timeframe, so we’re taking it one day at a time. We took profits in our inverse S&P 500 ETF position on Monday and hesitated to jump back in that position during the Tuesday morning rally. Even so, I would have ‘rung the register’ with the S&P approaching the previously predicted gap. – Mark Leibovit of VRTrader
From the VRtrader.com website here is a link to World Market Indices:
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_free/worldmarkets/index.
Outlook for August – Investors Beware! S&P 500 Technical & Seasonal Status – by Brooke Thackray Market Letter
Investors should be cautious in August. Although it is possible for the stock market to produce a positive return, August is typically one of the weaker months of the year and is not a good time to take large risks in the stock market. This is particularly true given the current backdrop of a slowing global economy.
Last month when I was writing the June newsletter the S&P 500 was at the 1325 level. Currently we are only nominally above this level. Although the market rallied strongly at the end of the month, it has since pulled back and sits under the resistance level in the 1350 range. If much better than expected earnings do materialize it is possible that the S&P 500 will once again challenge the 1400 level. Currently, analysts are expecting a decrease in earnings of 1.8% this quarter (Bloomberg). Investors should note that even if earnings do be beat their estimates by a small amount, the market will probably maintain a neutral bias, or even slightly negative bias. When the expectations are so low, just meeting expectations is not good enough.

