Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Market Update after the Euro Debacle

The outcome of the Greek vote at the weekend was not favorable for the markets, or for Precious Metals in particular. This is because it did not precipitate an immediate worsening of the acute crisis in Europe, and thus did not create the pressure needed to bring forward the major QE that must eventually come in order to delay Europe’s eventual complete collapse. Why then have markets not caved in already? – because investors are “smoking the hopium pipe” and waiting for the Fed to pull a rabbit out of the hat at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, by making positive noises to the effect that QE3 is ready to be rolled out. What is likely to happen instead is that they will come out with the same old line about “being ready to act when the SHTF” but other than that remain vague and non-commital. If this is what they do then markets are likely to throw a tantrum and sell off, and the charts are indicating that it could be hard.

The broad market is believed to be at a good point to short here, as its earlier oversold condition has been substantially unwound by the rally of the past week or two, which was fuelled by QE hopes related to the Greek vote and now the upcoming FOMC meeting. It has rallied into a falling 50-day moving average, which is usually a good point to short it, as even if a major downleg isn’t starting it would normally back and fill to give this average time to at least flatten out before a significant rally could start.

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How does all this square with our bullish stance toward gold in the recent past?

…read more and view 3 more charts HERE

Trader Sentiment Wrong for a Top

DOW  + 96 on 2000 net advances 

NASDAQ COMP+ 34 on 1300 net advances

 SHORT TERM TREND    Bullish

 INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND      Bullish

  In this country, there is anticipation that on Wednesday the Fed will announce further easing either in the form of QE3 or an extension of operation twist. The latter is more likely and I believe that there could be some selling on the news.   A couple of elements were responsible for the uptrend on Tuesday. Firsts, there were some favorable developments out of Europe, chief among them a better than expected Spanish bond auction.

   If the Fed is inclined to move, they would most likely have to do so tomorrow. The election is looming and they don’t like to appear as if they are playing politics.

   If we do get a selloff, it would most likely be an opportunity to buy. Sentiment is wrong for a top. We are seeing a lot of pessimism on the part of traders. For instance, the CBOE put call ratio remains quite high.

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TORONTO EXCHANGE:  Toronto was up a whopping 187. Good show.

GOLD: Gold finally had a down session, down $8 in spite of a weak dollar.

BONDS: Bonds were down again on Tuesday.

THE REST: The dollar was sharply lower, but this didn’t help gold and silver which were down. However, copper and crude oil were higher.

BOTTOM LINE:  

   Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.

   

The 88 Yr Old Legend – The Latest on Gold “riding up an ascending trendline”

Gold — has risen out of its “handle” and is above its 50-day MA. The next target is the red 200-day MA at 1690 — and then 1700. RSI and MACD for gold are both bullish. Note that gold’s 200-day MA is just below 1700. Note also that gold is now riding up an ascending trendline.

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The Perfect Business

It’s Turnaround Tuesday and Two Days Of FOMC Meetings – Expect A Market Retracement!

Less than one month ago, on May 25th Dan Dorfman and I had our final interview. I’ve known Dan since the early 1980s and those who saw him on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week or other national news channels including CNBC know he was a living legend, a trendsetter, an icon. I was shocked to learn of his passing this weekend. I will truly, truly miss him. He was a great man, a great journalist and a good friend. Please read Neal Cavuto’s tribute below which was broadcast on Fox News.

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STOCKS – ACTION ALERT – BULL – I BELIEVE CYCLICAL AND SEASONAL PATTERNS TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE FALL ARE NOW THE PREVAILING AND DRIVING FORCE TO THE EQUITY MARKETS HELPED BY THE EXCHANGE STABILIZATION FUND AND THE WORKING GROUP ON FINANCIAL MARKETS (THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM) – WITH BERNANKE PROVIDING WALL STREET AND OBAMA A ‘PUT’ PROTECTING THEM TO THE DOWNSIDE.

Well, it’s ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ but also the first day the FOMC meets. With markets rallying yesterday, the greater probability is that we begin to pull back. Also, my current thinking is that with so much news behind the markets (the vote in Greece, the FOMC meeting, the G-20 meeting, etc.) this week, we may see the markets back off a bit anyway unless some newer ‘market moving’ positives unfold such as a dramatic announcement that QE3 is now being implemented. That I do not expect, even though secretly it is very likely being implemented which, unfortunately, is the modus operandi of the Fed for decades. There is too much at stake. For one – Bernanke’s job. We know if Obama is not re-elected Bernanke is likely heading back to Princeton University.

Adding to the short-term bearish case today is the fact volume slowed to the upside on Monday and the fact many indexes were up five or six days in a row. 

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Global Investing: The Next 40 Years

“Travel — its very motion — ought to suggest hope. Despair is the armchair; it is indifference and glazed, incurious eyes. I think travelers are essentially optimists, or else they would never go anywhere.”

— Paul Theroux, The Tao of Travel

International 22

I know that things look bleak on many fronts: the crisis in the European Union, the fiscal and monetary insanity in the US and the looming debt troubles in Japan — to name just three. For a lot of investors focusing on just these markets, it must be hard to get out of bed in the morning.

But the world is changing. The dominance of these Western markets (including Japan) is not what it once was. And they are becoming less important as time goes by and as the rest of the world catches up.

My new book World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents is primarily about this new world and the opportunities it creates. I think the story it tells will prove to be the most important investment trend of the 21st century.

I’ve talked about the book on radio and TV. And I’ve had countless private conversations about it as well. I thought I’d write up some of the most asked questions I get and my answers to them.

Here goes…

What is your favorite emerging market right now?

I like many of the so-called “frontier markets.” Right now, I’m pretty jazzed up about Mongolia. The pace of growth there and the potential is mind-boggling. I plan to visit in June. I recently recommended a play on Mongolia to my subscribers. But I’m hoping my visit turns up some additional ideas. I also think Myanmar could be the next big story in Southeast Asia and I’m keeping an eye out for opportunities there.

I see a lot of opportunities in certain Africa markets. My favorite way to invest in Africa is through Francis Daniels’ Africa Opportunity Fund. I visited him in South Africa last year and we’ve maintained a correspondence ever since. The fund is a smart, opportunistic way to invest in Africa.

What are your least-favorite emerging markets?

I get asked this a lot too. Of the markets I’ve been to and follow, I’d say I’m worried about China. I think China is due for more than just the soft landing everyone seems to expect. I think China is starting to lose its cost edge in certain areas of manufacturing. I see spiraling wages and surging costs of living. I see a vulnerable banking system and shaky property market.

Longer term, I think China’s economy will be much bigger than it is today. But there will be hiccups, and the risk of having one now is high. What happens in China will affect a lot of markets, so I’m watching it carefully.

I am not a fan of Brazil at the moment. I see a heavy-handed government making a lot of bad moves lately. Brazil is also a difficult place to do business. In South America, I’d rather invest in Colombia, Chile or even Peru.

What’s the role of the US in all of this?

There are two ways to look at it. One way is to fret over a US that will have less influence and less importance in the world. Another way, the way I like to look at, is to think that we’ll have a much more expanded marketplace to work in.

I think of this analogy: Would you rather live in a mansion in a neighborhood in shambles? Or would you rather live in a nice house surrounded by other nice houses? I don’t feel threatened by other countries getting wealthier. I look at it as an opportunity.

It might be worth pointing out that the chapter on the US is the longest one in my book. In other words, I think there is still plenty to do right here at home.

Have you ever gotten sick on your travels?

I don’t know why, but people like to ask me this. In all the traveling I’ve done, I was only really seriously sick once. It was my first time in India, on my second-to-last day, after nearly three weeks there. Remember Slumdog Millionaire and the bottled water trick of resealing old water bottles? It got me. I got very sick that night, and after several hours of unsuccessfully battling it, I called the hotel to send a doctor. I asked the hotel to let him in my room, because I was in no condition to do so.

Next thing I remember, I wake up with this angelic doctor by my bed. He gave some shot in the butt. Took blood. And then came back a few hours later to check on me. I was much better. I remember paying him about $80 in cash — for two house visits, blood work and meds. Cheap!

What’s the strangest place you’ve ever been?

There are a lot of images that come to my mind. I remember sitting in a bar in Cambodia where people drank cocktails from shell casings. I remember a restaurant in China that looked like a pet shop because you picked what you wanted to eat from one of the tanks and it later arrived on your plate. Very fresh!

I think it was pretty strange to be in Bangkok during the floods last October. I remember cars parked on the highway bridges. I remember sandbags around many of the buildings. And I remember being greeted by name as I walked into the hotel. I was the only one checking in that night!

What’s next?

I just turned 40 years old and celebrated the event by hiking the Inca Trail to Machu Picchu with a buddy of mine from high school. I’ve always wanted to go there. And I figure it would be a good challenge to hike it. I had been training every day for a few months, just to make sure that no one had to haul me off those mountains!

But that trip was just for kicks. Investment-wise, I have a long list of places on my radar to check out in the future. Markets are constantly changing. New opportunities open up all the time.

Regards,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning

Chris Mayer

Chris Mayer is managing editor of the Capital and Crisis andMayer’s Special Situations newsletters. Graduating magna cum laude with a degree in finance and an MBA from the University of Maryland, he began his business career as a corporate banker. Mayer left the banking industry after ten years and signed on with Agora Financial. His book, Invest Like a Dealmaker, Secrets of a Former Banking Insider, documents his ability to analyze macro issues and micro investment opportunities to produce an exceptional long-term track record of winning ideas. In April 2012 Chris will release his newest book World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents

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Read more: Global Investing: The Next 40 Year http://dailyreckoning.com/global-investing-the-next-40-year/#ixzz1yFPywGRV