Gold & Precious Metals

In an April speech in Berlin, Dr. Andreas Dombret, a member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank (the German central bank), offered a startlingly frank assessment of the current problems in Europe.  Although his comments were meant to apply to the tensions and imbalances that exist between the northern and southern tier of the 17-member eurozone, they shed inadvertent light on the broader global economy.

Rebuffing calls that Germany do more to support the faltering southern economies, Dr. Dombret said:

…Exchange rate movements are usually an important channel through which unsustainable current account positions are corrected….In a monetary union, however, this is obviously no longer an option. Spain no longer has a peseta to devalue; Germany no longer has a deutsche mark to revalue. Other things must therefore give instead: prices, wages, employment and output.

The question now is which countries have to shoulder the adjustment burden. Naturally, this is where opinions start to differ. The German position could be described as follows: the deficit countries must adjust. They must address their structural problems, reduce domestic demand, become more competitive and increase their exports.

In economics it is axiomatic that positive and negative current account balances will ultimately be offset by changes in relative currency valuations. The currencies of surplus countries are supposed to rise and the currencies of the deficit countries are supposed to fall. But the current global political alignment has altered this process. Like many of his German and continental peers in government and finance, Dombret is likely in favor of maintaining a common currency at all costs. But as he outlines, when currencies fail to adjust something else has to give. He insists that the giving come from those who have been getting.

Given their weak economies and strained fiscal positions, it should be evident that citizens of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy have been living beyond their means. Their relative prosperity over the last decade has largely been maintained by the purchasing power of the euro which itself has been buoyed by the strong German economy. Rather than forcing Germans, whose savings rates and current account surplus results from years of fiscal prudence, to lend even more money and suffer higher inflation so that the southern tier can receive more monetary stimulus, Dombret argues the citizens of deficit economies must spend less while working, producing and saving more.  In other words, their living standards must match their productivity.

Economic dynamics do not change with scale. And as it happens, there is a much bigger and equally flawed currency bloc in the world than the one Dr. Dombret is seeking to cure. In that larger bloc, the exact same dynamic of surplus and deficit nations is playing out within an inflexible monetary straightjacket.

In order to maintain exports and to manage economic expectations, many nations (most notably China) have instituted fixed exchange rates between their own currencies and the U.S. dollar. Although this system is not governed by a formal treaty like the one that binds the 17-nation eurozone, it has given rise to a virtual bloc of currencies that are unnaturally tethered, even while the underlying economics are drifting apart. And although there has been some recent flexibility from China on exchange rates, there is nearly universal consensus that these movements would be far more pronounced absent significant central bank manipulation.

Like the nations of southern Europe, the United States consumes far more than it produces. But rather than closing the gap by producing more and consuming less, both have followed a far less painful path. They have borrowed instead. Who can blame them? After all, it’s far more enjoyable to consume than produce. And as we have seen in many financial arenas, a borrower will tend to borrow for as long as a lender is willing to lend, especially if there are no immediate adverse consequences.

Both Germany and China produce more than they consume. It is from these resulting surpluses that the deficit nations are borrowing. But these two creditor nations are currently showing different policy drifts with respect to their hard-earned savings. In Europe, German leaders are showing increasing reluctance to sacrifice the living standards of their own citizens to perpetuate an imbalanced economic system. The Chinese on the other hand appear to heartily encourage such a policy. This difference can be attributed to their respective political systems. In Germany, public opinion matters. In China, not so much.

The currency peg of the Yuan against the dollar, which China has enforced with varying degrees of exactitude over the past few decades, has helped the Chinese government exert greater influence over the growth and contours of its economy. But the policy has created hardships for Chinese citizens (such as disproportionately low rates of consumption and high rates of inflation). But lacking any means to overtly influence public policy, Chinese citizens have had little choice but to take it on the chin. German citizens on the other hand are much freer to voice their discontent. And in fact, fears of a voter backlash have been determinative in setting Berlin’s agenda.  

The question for the global economy is whether China will become more like Germany, or Germany more like China. From my perspective the answer is clear. German leaders are unlikely to risk the scorn of voters by repudiating their cultural aversion to overly accommodative monetary policy. In China, the decisions will be more pragmatic.  Currently Beijing perceives advantages in the status quo. But ultimately the costs, in terms of increasing foreign exchange reserves and rising inflation, may force its hand. When that happens, the United States and Southern Europe will be in the same boat.  

To many, the “Golden Rule” is an idea that underscores the value of civility and fair dealing. But there is another, less magnanimous definition: “He who has the gold makes the rules.” In the current global economy, the surplus countries have the gold and sooner or later we will be living by their rules. 

Waving the White Flag

Posted by John Mauldin

on Sunday, 13 May 2012 19:55

Waving the White Flag

Viva Los Rescates Financieros de los Bancos


Contagion is Real
It Doesn’t End With Spain


New York, Atlanta, and Philadelphia


A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

– Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy

For quite some time in this letter I have been making the case that for the eurozone to survive, the European Central Bank would have to print more money than any of us can now imagine. That the sentiment among European leaders was that they were prepared for such a move was clear – except for Germany, which is haunted by fears of a return to the days of the Weimar Republic and hyperinflation.

When Germany agreed to a fixed monetary union and a European Central Bank, it was with the clear understanding that it would be run along the lines of the German central bank, the Bundesbank. The members of the Bundesbank and the German members of the ECB were most outspoken about the need for a conservative monetary policy that would keep a clamp on inflation.

However, as I have previously noted, the Bundesbank was a toothless tiger. Germany has two votes out of 23 on the ECB, and the loud drumbeat from most of Europe, which is experiencing the difficulty of austerity accompanied by too much debt, is for a far more accommodating ECB.

The simple fact is that Mario Draghi, the Italian president of the ECB, created €1 trillion euros to help fund European banks, which promptly turned around and bought their respective countrys’ sovereign debt. Germany’s Angela Merkel forced the Bundesbank to “play nice” and go along with what was seen as the only way to solve a growing banking crisis in Europe. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief, thinking that this at least bought a year during which things could be sorted out. But it turns out that a trillion euros just doesn’t go as far as it used to. The “relief” lasted about a month. The last few weeks have presented yet another budding crisis, as least as large as the last one. Where to get the next trillion?

This week the German Bundesbank waved the white flag. The die is cast. For good or ill, Europe has embarked on a program that will require multiple trillions of euros of freshly minted money in order to maintain the eurozone. But the alternative, European leaders agree, is even worse. Today we will look at the recent German shift in policy, why it was so predictable, and what it means. This is a Ponzi scheme that makes Madoff look like a small-time street hustler. There is a lot to cover.

At the end of the letter I will mention a few upcoming speaking engagements, in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and a webinar I will be doing next week. Now let’s jump over to Europe.

Waving the White Flag

It is the world’s worst-kept secret: Germany does not want inflation but wants to abandon the European Union even less. And as we will see, the eurozone simply does not have enough money to keep itself together without massive ECB intervention.

“Cry havoc,” wrote Shakespeare in Julius Caesar, “and let slip the dogs of war.” The military order “Havoc!” was a signal given to the English military forces in the Middle Ages to direct the soldiery (in Shakespeare’s parlance “the dogs of war”) to pillage and incite chaos.

The cry is much the same in Europe today, though it is not the dogs of war that will ravage the land but the hounds of inflation. The English edition of Spiegel Online today carries a story with the headline “High Inflation Causes Societies to Disintegrate.”

To Read More CLICK HERE

spain

“I think lots of things that have changed since 1984. Despite metal prices being substantially higher than they were 10 or 20 years ago, we’ve really haven’t seen those prices reflected in mining equities”. Peter Grandich

Peter Grandich, author and publisher of The Grandich Letter, which can be read by visitingwww.grandich.com, says the bottom is close and that the 180-dregree turning point could be at hand. In this Smallcappower.com exclusive Mr. Grandich says the market odds are stacked against the retail investor but still names a few companies that he owns and believes are completely undervalued in this incredibly bearish market for junior resource equities.

Peter, in late April during an interview with the Korelin Economics Report, hosted by Al Korelin, you said that certain entities are manipulating or “influencing” the gold and silver markets. Obviously, the gold market, given its sheer size, is more difficult to influence, but the silver market is relatively small and has been manipulated in the past. Should retail investors be alarmed?

Peter Grandich: They shouldn’t be alarmed, but I can’t think of any financial market that hasn’t had at least had one person convicted of some form of market manipulation. So why do people think that doesn’t happen in the gold and silver markets?

I don’t believe it happens hour-to-hour or even day-to-day but I think that there are people who try to take advantage of the market and move it in a certain way. And while they likely don’t all get together and discuss it on the phone before they actually do it, there are certain groups that know when other groups are attempting something. And within the silver market it tends to happen more because the market is much smaller in size and thus more easily manipulated.

SmallCapPower: What are some of the ways these larger players move precious metals markets?

Peter Grandich: They tend to move it at certain times. For instance, there are certain dates when options are about to expire. And the vast majority of time on option days, in the metals market in particular, markets tend to go down below those option prices because so many of the option writers are the professionals who dominate the market, therefore wrote with the hope of not having to deliver. If they can pressure the market below a certain strike price, then they don’t have to deliver or cover their sales. And because that happens, most buyers refrain from buying around those known timeframes; and those who are trading the market kind of push it lower because they know it can almost become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It also seemingly tends to happen around big announcements like the monthly employment numbers. If someone were to look back at a chart monitoring the gold and silver prices 24 hours before those announcements, I would say three out of four times those markets go down. When in reality it should be more like a 50-50.

I think there are other periods of time, too, but I don’t think it’s every day or every hour.

SmallCapPower: Would you avoid trading when those U.S. economic numbers come out?

Peter Grandich: If I was strictly a trader and certainly from the long side, I would refrain from that. I would actually look to buy any sell-offs because the market almost inevitably rebounds shortly after that.

….read more HERE

Experience: 89 Year Old Legend Goes Bearish

Posted by Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters

on Friday, 11 May 2012 16:46

Hey, I don’t like what I see on the Lowry’s statistics. Buying Power (demands) has been slipping, and Selling Pressure (supply) has been creeping higher. The negative spread between the two has widened from a recent 130 to yesterday’s 145. In the meantime my PTI, after forming a double top, has failed to go to a new high. Yesterday my PTI was 5 bullish by a mere 5 points. 

Verdict — be OUT of all stocks and be very patient. I don’t like the undertone of this market one bit; I think the stock market is under subtle and quiet distribution. Holding any stocks over time will be a loser — so it’s simple — don’t hold them; stay in cash and gold coins until I think of something better. I also like the Permanent Portfolio PRPFX, which is a reasonable place to park your assets. 

The market has been quiet for a while. I think something big is coming up, and I don’t think it will be good. Caution is the watchword now. This is the quiet before the storm. I note that the VIX (the “fear index”) has been quietly and slowly rising to where it is 19.55 today. The chart below of the VIX shows the VIX climbing above its 50-day moving average. MACD is giving a “buy” signal.

Yesterday I went to Costco for the first time — to buy a pair of eye glasses. The place is amazing. It’s built like an aircraft hanger or dome, severe, lots of room, high ceilings, no frills at all. At each long aisle there was some one handing out free food samples. I ended up eating a full free dinner, and it was good at that. I bought three pairs of eye glasses with frames for $375, about one third of what it would cost me at a La Jolla oculist.

Costco had just about every thing you can think of for modern living — at bargain prices — vacation trips, vacuum cleaners, pots and pans, deck furniture, awnings, flowers. I wondered whether this is the real trend of the future. Membership to Costco is fifty bucks a year for two people. Why would a person shop any place else? The only problem is quantity. Everything for sale from razor blades to Ensure to T-shirts to frozen burgers comes in quantities — you can’t get out of the place for less than three hundred bucks. Take a trip to Costco and you’ll get an idea of how much sheer “stuff” is being manufactured in the world today. Who the hell is going to use it all? Hopefully 1.3 billion Chinese will use it.

Gold continues to be a maddening mystery. Yesterday, to the consternation of gold shorts, Dec. gold closed below 1600 (it did it again today). I’m increasingly convinced that the only safe way to own gold is in bullion coin form. In that way, you’ve got your gold and you’re not tempted to trade it. You hold onto it, and you take it to your grave — or give it to your kids or your sweetie. 

In that way, you own a position in gold (the size of which is up to you) and you forget about it. It’s like a house that you like and that you own free and clear. You don’t call your real estate agent every week to ask what your house is worth. You bought it, you like it, it’s a source of pleasure, and you don’t stay awake nights worrying about it.

Lately, I hear a lot of gold-naysayers boasting that “I own gold for insurance purposes only, although I’m certainly NOT a gold-bug.” Of course, the same people feel happy as a lark when their gold goes up in price. 

I have subscribers who loaded up on bullion ten and even 25 years ago. They write to tell me that those purchases have changed their lives, although they never would have believed it when they were buying their gold at rock-bottom prices.

“Buy your gold and look away. Your buys will look brilliant some other day.”

 

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Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

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The Letters, published every three weeks, cover the US stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics –plus Russell’s widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.

In 1989 Russell took over Julian Snyder’s well-known advisory service, “International Moneyline”, a service which Mr. Synder ran from Switzerland. Then, in 1998 Russell took over the Zweig Forecast from famed market analyst, Martin Zweig. Russell has written articles and been quoted in such publications as Bloomberg magazine, Barron’s, Time, Newsweek, Money Magazine, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Reuters, and others. Subscribers to Dow Theory Letters number over 12,000, hailing from all 50 states and dozens of overseas counties.

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One of the favorite features of the Letter is Russell’s daily Primary Trend Index (PTI), which is a proprietary index which has been included in the Letters since 1971. The PTI has been an amazingly accurate and useful guide to the trend of the market, and it often actually differs with Russell’s opinions. But Russell always defers to his PTI. Says Russell, “The PTI is a lot smarter than I am. It’s a great ego-deflator, as far as I’m concerned, and I’ve learned never to fight it.”

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Mark Leibovit’s Pre-Market Platinum Newsletter Clip

Posted by Mark Leibovit via VRTrade Platinum Newsletter

on Friday, 11 May 2012 10:50

STOCKS – ACTION ALERT – BEAR – MARKET IN CORRECTION.

If you’re been following my recommendations, you know that I’ve been short or long inverse ETFs in the financial sector. I have been short JP Morgan, long FAZ (the triple inverse ETF for the financial sector), and short the financial ETF, XLF. So, the ‘surprise’ we received yesterday afternoon from Jaime Dimon at JP Morgan Chase comes as no surprise to me. As you know, I am no fan of JP Morgan or Jaime Dimon. My position is that JP Morgan acts the Fed’s right hand in executing its market manipulation objectives. Acting in behalf of their ‘client’, JP Morgan does the Fed’s bidding (dirty work) which includes intervening, as needed, in the European markets and suppressing the price of gold and silver by selling naked contracts what I’ve often referred to herein as the ‘phony’ paper market at the CME/COMEX. Jaime Dimon is almost a clandestine Fed Governor. Apparently, they (he) screwed up and incorrectly hedged their positions when executing instructions from Bernanke. When the light of day finally shines on all of this, it will the ammunition that will end the Fed as we know it. Ron Paul will have his victory. As you know, I support this and have been adamant antagonist since I read the landmark work by G. Edward Griffin – ‘The Creature from Jekyll Island’. As you know, Jekyll Island, Georgia was the location where the clandestine planning for the creation of the Federal Reserve occurred over 100 years ago. When Bernanke loses his job I nominate Ron Paul to be the interim Fed Chairman during the period in which it is dissolved. Jaime Dimon will need to be looking for a new job and a new partner. The system needs what I term an ‘enema’. Hopefully, this JP Morgan affair will be a step in the right direction in a desperately needed cleansing process – a process which I don’t think will occur overnight, but there is always a first good step in any worthwhile endeavor.

I remain positioned on the short side and we’ll take it a day at a time. We all know Bernanke and Geithner will try and pull a rabbit out of a hat and attempt to get these equity markets moving again to the upside to help re-elect our Marxist President. For the sake of the U.S., our religious freedoms, our economic freedoms and for the sake of our children, I pray he is handsomely defeated – though, frankly, Romney may only be the lesser of two evils. The SPX touched 1343.13 on Wednesday. My next downside target is 1320 followed by 1292 in the S&P 500 and we’ll take it from there.

If you’ve forgotten about how Iceland moved to solve its own financial crisis, I suggest you ready the short piece below at the end of this newsletter. Though I do not agree with all their actions, bold steps here in the U.S. somewhat along those lines is desperate needed otherwise we’re going to end up in the same place again and again. The first step has to be the dismantling of the Federal Reserve – its 100 years of tyranny and destruction must come to an end!

Let me share with you a short exerpt from Ben Bernanke’s bio as it appears in Wikipedia. I think you will find it eye-opening. It is part of the powerpoint presentations I give at varios speaking engagements.

“Bernanke is particularly interested in the economic and political causes of the Great Depression, on which he has published numerous academic journal articles. Before Bernanke’s work, the dominant monetarist theory of the Great Depression was Milton Friedman’s view that it had been largely caused by the Federal Reserve’s having reduced the money supply. In a speech on Milton Friedman’s ninetieth birthday (November 8, 2002), Bernanke said, “Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna [Schwartz, Friedman’s coauthor]: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.” Bernanke has cited Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in his decision to lower interest rates to zero. Anna Schwartz however is highly critical of Bernanke and wrote an opinion piece in the New York Times advising Obama against his reappointment to Chair of Federal Reserve.”

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GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BULL

Haven’t you noticed that when economic news, whether it’s related to the European meltdown or evening this morning’s JP Morgan revelation, gold and silver sell-off when presumably they should be rallying? Folks, this is the dirty work of the Plunge Protection Team acting through JP Morgan (and possibly others). It’s counter-intuitive. By attempting to knock down price by hitting the bids on the phony paper market (futures market), they are distracting attention away from what is rightfully one of only safe places for you money – gold and silver. Physical assets, folks! That’s the answer. When the financial system melts down again (and it will) think about where you want to keep your hard-earned savings. Do you trust the banks (like JP Morgan) who are basically speculators and traders and whose very existence depends on the Federal Reserve’s “printing press”? Do you trust brokerage firms like MF Global in the futures business or even household names in the stock brokerage business to be there when you need to withdraw your investment dollars? These are the questions you have to ask. What we’ve learned from the financial meltdown in 2008-2009 is there is no truly safe asset, but I feel a lot better holding a physical asset such as gold, silver, real estate (land), farmland or even your home over keeping assets in the slimy hands of Wall Street. My recommendation is to keep your assets (including currencies) clearly diversified among firms, among locations both domestic and foreign and category. Trust no one for more than you afford to lose. These are treacherous times even though the news is often manipulated or not reported to present just the opposite picture.

Meanwhile, gold and silver remain in a correction. I have been steadfast in my BUY signal even though I recognize the ‘powers that be’ may be temporarily successful in driving down prices. Why? Because they will lose big time and because ultimately surprises will be to the upside. The next big target (support) area is the December 29 low at 1521.80 in Gold and 26.08 in Silver. With the mining shares showing some decent upside action here, let’s see if the physical metals will chime in as well. Keep in mind a ‘May’ bounce may be nothing more than a ‘May’ bounce within the context of the bigger near term corrective cycle. New lows in gold (under 1521.80) will clearly generate further selling. I presume this is what Bernanke and his cohorts are hoping for. But, their strategy is two-pronged. Though they may drive it lower, they are also seeking to enlarge their holdings at lower prices. This, I believe, is one of the reasons China has temporarily played along with the PPT’s suppression scheme. Where could we be headed? Such a move could place gold anywhere from 1400 down to 1275. Not the best of outcomes, but one we psychologically have to be prepared for. On the positive front, should we cross back above 1792.40, I think the chances of then see new highs increases immensely with potential to first the 2200-2300 range.

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BONDS – ACTION ALERT – BULL

Despite the risk of higher interest rates down the road, I believe the perceived flight to safety will be the prevailing motivator over the near-term. Long-term, bonds are dangerous, so I only see them as a near-term positive.

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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS

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FRIDAY MAY 11

April Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

April Canadian Employment
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May Michigan Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

Earnings Reports:
Nvidia

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