Timing & trends

“The most bullish examples would see the pattern develop into a series of lows around $1690 or an A-B-C correction, as experienced in 2010, which holds around $1660 (50% retracement from the December lows). A close above $1775 would be the catalyst for a challenge of $1900 to $2155. At the other extreme, a failure to hold $1625 (62% retracement from $1523) would imply that the December lows will be taken out.”

….read and view all charts HERE

It Ain’t Over Until I Say It’s Over – Gold $1,665 Silver $32.50

The “mother” of all gold bull market lives and it “ain’t over until I say its over”.

I received this email from a 40-yr. Wall Street trader right after the “flash crash” in gold last week:

Hey Peter

Funny thing happened the other day, Nadler went bullish on gold.

I said,  “I’M DEAD”

LANCE JORDAN

While I suspect I’m not the only one in the world who wishes Crocodile Dundee wasn’t just kidding, it was funny that the “Tokyo Rose” of gold had once again thrown out a hedge to cover his decade-long horrifically wrong forecasting record like he does every once and awhile when gold gets far away from his usual dribble, only to see the flash crash occur. Sure enough, he is back to his only usually reliable anti-gold self so take comfort in the fact that the greatest contrarian gold signal of all-time is back where he belongs.

I’ve played this video for quite some time now to remind the very small army of us who have enjoyed virtually the entire ride up in gold that we’re at war with most of the financial industry and the media that follows it. They hate gold and what it stands for and come out of their foxholes every so often during these nasty, but rather short-lived corrections. They did so late last year when gold was more than $100 below where it is now, only to see it rally $200+ in just two months.

Nothing has changed (not even their spiel) fundamentally and I plan on using the cash I’ve built up of late to go back into several positions and new ones.

For me, I shall remember this belief each time the airwaves are filled in the near-term with yet another wave of anti-gold rhetoric:

GOLD IS GOING TO AN INFLATED-ADJUSTED ALL-TIME HIGH BEFORE IT’S ALL SAID AND DONE!

Screen shot 2012-03-06 at 4.15.20 PM

Screen shot 2012-03-06 at 4.15.58 PM


Four Cycle Turns Warn of a Stock Market Top in March 2012

Mark Leibovit  – STOCKS – ACTION ALERT – SELL (Looking to Buy In A Month or Two)

What’s interesting is that the year to date has been the best start in stock indices since 1998 according to Dow Jones Newswires. As of the close today this is the 45th consecutive day without a triple digit decline. A canary in the coal mine? Today is ‘Turnaround Tuesday’, so with markets down a bit yesterday perhaps we can stage a rally today. But wait! Tomorrow is ‘Weird Wollie Wednesday’ and often either tomorrow or Thursday, according to the lore, there should be a shakeout ahead of a week from Friday’s Options Expiration. Is all of this just noise? Well, maybe not. We’re approaching that time of year when the markets often experience some form of indigestion. Yesterday, though the volume was NOT excessive, nevertheless we did volume increase to the downside. Benjamin Netanyahu spoke last night (covered sole on Fox News) before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and warned that time is running out for Iran. Folks, brace yourself. Sometime before now and the end of May, we’re likely to see a full scale confrontation unfold as the Mayans watch from the heavens. Would this be a good time to be in the marketplace? Markets don’t like uncertainty. I think the answer is no. The 50 and 200 day moving averages in the S&P 500 current sit at roughly 1323 and 1270. These are the next two potential downside targets if the S&P 500 cannot post a new high between now and the first of April. Apple, Inc. took a bit of a nosedive today. If Apple can’t rally (and it was about the only big stock doing so), the writing may be on the wall. Think about it. I can’t imagine one mutual fund, one institution, one endowment or one growth portfolio not owning Apple. Everyone now owns it, but where are the buyers should these folks decide to sell? I have avoided Apple because it is technically way, way too, extended and would only arouse my interest if it sold off back into the low to mid 400s – maybe lower. I’ve changed my mind. Time to flip to a SELL signal. Let’s see where the market is come the beginning of April or even perhaps the end of May. If the market rallies a bit higher first and you decide not to sell here, I would use that strength to lighten up. Now is a time to step aside and watch from the sidelines. I still believe there could be another big rally, but let’s revisit this market in a month or two. I am going to cash! – Mark Leibovit – for a VRTrader TRIAL SIGNUP go HERE

Four Cycle Turns Warn of a Stock Market Top in March 2012

There is a lot of cycle evidence that suggests a top is coming in March 2012. How significant a top is hard to say, but the odds are the coming decline will be at least in the 10 percent area. If this coming top is the top of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III}, then stocks will begin a decline that could retrace 50 percent or more of the market over the next several years, with large chunks of decline occurring incrementally, followed by normal 40 to 60 percent retracements as stocks work toward significantly lower levels. This weekend we will present this cycle evidence, which we believe is compelling.

First of all, the last phi mate turn date was in December, which led to a two month rally of significance. It was a major phi mate turn. March 7th is the next phi mate date, and the only phi mate turn date since that December turn. It also is a major phi mate turn, meaning its phi mate, its partner date, was also a major turn.

stock-market-cycle-top-march-2012-1

….read & view more charts HERE

How Credit Put Spreads Can Boost Your Gains and Lower Your Risk

Last month, Money Morning showed you how to use a technique called selling “cash-secured puts” to generate a steady flow of cash from a stock – even if you no longer own the shares.

It is a highly effective income strategy that can also be used to buy stocks at bargain prices.

But selling cash-secured puts does have a couple of drawbacks:

•First, it’s fairly expensive since you have to post a large cash margin deposit to ensure that you’ll be able to follow through on the transaction if the shares are “exercised.” ­Thus the name, “cash-secured” puts.
•Second, if the market – or the specific stock on which you sell the puts – falls sharply in price, you could have to buy the shares at a price well above their current value, taking a substantial paper loss.

Fortunately, there is a way to offset both these disadvantages while continuing to generate a steady income stream.

It’s called a “credit put spread” and it strictly limits both the initial cost and the potential risk of a major price decline.

I’ll show exactly how it works in just a second, but first I have to set the stage…

The Advantage of Credit Put Spreads
Assume you had owned 300 shares of diesel-engine manufacturer Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) and had been selling covered calls against the stock to supplement the $1.60 annual dividend and boost the yield of 1.30%.

Let’s also assume that back in mid-January, when the stock was around $110 a share, you sold three February $120 calls because it seemed like a safe bet at the time.

However, when CMI’s price later moved sharply higher, hitting $122.07/share, your shares were called away when the options matured on Feb. 17.

That means you had to sell them at $120 per share to fulfill your call option. That might leave you with the following dilemma.

Thanks to the recent rally, the stocks you follow are too high to buy with the proceeds from your CMI sale. On the other hand, you also hate to forfeit the income you had been getting from the CMI dividend and selling covered calls.

You also decide you wouldn’t mind owning CMI again if the price pulled back below $120.

In this case, your first inclination might be to use the money from the CMI sale as a margin deposit for the cash-secured sale of three April $120 CMI puts, recently priced at about $4.90, or $490 for a full 100-share option contract.

That would have brought in a total of $1,470 (less a small commission), which would be yours to keep if Cummins remains above $120 a share when the puts expire on April 21.

That sounds pretty appealing, but…

The minimum margin requirement for the sale of those three puts – and, be aware, most brokerage firms require more than the minimum – would be a fairly hefty $8,190.

[Note: For an explanation of how margin requirements on options are calculated, you can refer to the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE) Margin Calculator, which shows how the minimum margin is determined for a variety of popular strategies.]

Your potential return on the sale of the three puts would thus be 17.94% on the required margin deposit ($1,470/$8,190 = 17.94%), or 4.08% on the full $36,000 purchase price of the 300 CMI shares you might have to buy.

Either of those returns is attractive given that the trade lasts under two months – but you also have to consider the downside.

Should the market plunge into a spring correction, taking Cummins stock with it, the loss on simply selling the April $120 puts could be substantial.

For example, if CMI fell back to $100 a share, where it was as recently as early January, the puts would be exercised.

You’d have to buy the stock back at a price of $120 a share, giving you an immediate paper loss of $6,000 – or, after deducting the $1,470 you received for selling the puts, $4,530.

And, if CMI fell all the way back to its 52-week low near $80, the net loss would be $10,530. (See the final column in the accompanying table.)

All of a sudden, that’s not such an attractive prospect.

creditspreads

And that’s where a credit put spread picks up its advantage.

But selling cash-secured puts does have a couple of drawbacks:

•First, it’s fairly expensive since you have to post a large cash margin deposit to ensure that you’ll be able to follow through on the transaction if the shares are “exercised.” ­Thus the name, “cash-secured” puts.
•Second, if the market – or the specific stock on which you sell the puts – falls sharply in price, you could have to buy the shares at a price well above their current value, taking a substantial paper loss.

Fortunately, there is a way to offset both these disadvantages while continuing to generate a steady income stream.

It’s called a “credit put spread” and it strictly limits both the initial cost and the potential risk of a major price decline.

I’ll show exactly how it works in just a second, but first I have to set the stage…

The Advantage of Credit Put Spreads
Assume you had owned 300 shares of diesel-engine manufacturer Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) and had been selling covered calls against the stock to supplement the $1.60 annual dividend and boost the yield of 1.30%.

Let’s also assume that back in mid-January, when the stock was around $110 a share, you sold three February $120 calls because it seemed like a safe bet at the time.

However, when CMI’s price later moved sharply higher, hitting $122.07/share, your shares were called away when the options matured on Feb. 17.

That means you had to sell them at $120 per share to fulfill your call option. That might leave you with the following dilemma.

Thanks to the recent rally, the stocks you follow are too high to buy with the proceeds from your CMI sale. On the other hand, you also hate to forfeit the income you had been getting from the CMI dividend and selling covered calls.

You also decide you wouldn’t mind owning CMI again if the price pulled back below $120.

In this case, your first inclination might be to use the money from the CMI sale as a margin deposit for the cash-secured sale of three April $120 CMI puts, recently priced at about $4.90, or $490 for a full 100-share option contract.

That would have brought in a total of $1,470 (less a small commission), which would be yours to keep if Cummins remains above $120 a share when the puts expire on April 21.

That sounds pretty appealing, but…

The minimum margin requirement for the sale of those three puts – and, be aware, most brokerage firms require more than the minimum – would be a fairly hefty $8,190.

[Note: For an explanation of how margin requirements on options are calculated, you can refer to the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE) Margin Calculator, which shows how the minimum margin is determined for a variety of popular strategies.]

Your potential return on the sale of the three puts would thus be 17.94% on the required margin deposit ($1,470/$8,190 = 17.94%), or 4.08% on the full $36,000 purchase price of the 300 CMI shares you might have to buy.

Either of those returns is attractive given that the trade lasts under two months – but you also have to consider the downside.

Should the market plunge into a spring correction, taking Cummins stock with it, the loss on simply selling the April $120 puts could be substantial.

For example, if CMI fell back to $100 a share, where it was as recently as early January, the puts would be exercised.

You’d have to buy the stock back at a price of $120 a share, giving you an immediate paper loss of $6,000 – or, after deducting the $1,470 you received for selling the puts, $4,530.

And, if CMI fell all the way back to its 52-week low near $80, the net loss would be $10,530. (See the final column in the accompanying table.)

All of a sudden, that’s not such an attractive prospect.

And that’s where a credit put spread picks up its advantage.

Here’s how it works…

How to Create a Credit Put Spread
Instead of just selling three April CMI $120 puts at $4.90 ($1,470 total), you also BUY three April CMI $110 puts, priced late last week at about $1.90, or $570 total.

Because you have both long and short option positions on the same stock, the trade is referred to as a “spread,” and because you take in more money than you pay out, it’s called a “credit” spread.

And, in this case, the “credit” you receive on establishing the position is $900 ($1,470 – $570 = $900).

Again, that $900 is yours to keep so long as CMI stays above $120 by the option expiration date in April.

However, because the April $110 puts you bought “cover” the April $120 puts you sold, your net margin requirement is just $2,100 – which is also the maximum amount you can lose on this trade, regardless of how far CMI’s share price might fall. (Again, see the accompanying table for verification.)

That’s because, as soon as the short $120 puts are exercised, forcing you to buy 300 shares of CMI for $36,000, you can simultaneously exercise your long $110 puts, forcing someone else to buy the 300 shares for $33,000.

Thus, your loss on the stock would be $3,000, which is reduced by the $900 credit you received on the spread, making your maximum possible loss on the trade $2,100.

On the positive side, if things work out – i.e. CMI stays above $120 in April – and you get to keep the full $900, the return on the lower $2,100 margin deposit is a whopping 42.85% in less than two months, or roughly 278.5% annualized.

Plus, as is the case with most option income strategies, you can continue doing new credit spreads every two or three months, generating a steady cash flow until you’re ready to repurchase the stock at a more desirable price.

In this case, we say “ready” to repurchase because you’re never forced to buy the stock; you can always repurchase the options you sold short prior to expiration.

This strategy has substantial cost-cutting benefits when trading higher-priced issues like CMI, but it’s also a very effective short-term income strategy with lower-priced shares.

For example, with Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) trading near $31.50 late last week, an April credit spread using the $31 and $28 puts would bring in a net credit of 75 cents a share, or $225 on a three-option spread.

Since the net margin deposit on the trade would be just $675, you’d get a potential return of 33.3% in only seven weeks if WFC remains above $31 a share.

As you can see, credit put spreads are a great way to boost your gains while lowering your risks, especially in stable or rising markets.

So why not give yourself some credit.

Source http://moneymorning.com/2012/03/05/options-101-credit-put-spreads-can-boost-your-gains-and-lower-your-risk/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email:customerservice@moneymorning.com” target=”_blank”>customerservice@moneymorning.com

Here’s how it works…

How to Create a Credit Put Spread
Instead of just selling three April CMI $120 puts at $4.90 ($1,470 total), you also BUY three April CMI $110 puts, priced late last week at about $1.90, or $570 total.

Because you have both long and short option positions on the same stock, the trade is referred to as a “spread,” and because you take in more money than you pay out, it’s called a “credit” spread.

And, in this case, the “credit” you receive on establishing the position is $900 ($1,470 – $570 = $900).

Again, that $900 is yours to keep so long as CMI stays above $120 by the option expiration date in April.

However, because the April $110 puts you bought “cover” the April $120 puts you sold, your net margin requirement is just $2,100 – which is also the maximum amount you can lose on this trade, regardless of how far CMI’s share price might fall. (Again, see the accompanying table for verification.)

That’s because, as soon as the short $120 puts are exercised, forcing you to buy 300 shares of CMI for $36,000, you can simultaneously exercise your long $110 puts, forcing someone else to buy the 300 shares for $33,000.

Thus, your loss on the stock would be $3,000, which is reduced by the $900 credit you received on the spread, making your maximum possible loss on the trade $2,100.

On the positive side, if things work out – i.e. CMI stays above $120 in April – and you get to keep the full $900, the return on the lower $2,100 margin deposit is a whopping 42.85% in less than two months, or roughly 278.5% annualized.

Plus, as is the case with most option income strategies, you can continue doing new credit spreads every two or three months, generating a steady cash flow until you’re ready to repurchase the stock at a more desirable price.

In this case, we say “ready” to repurchase because you’re never forced to buy the stock; you can always repurchase the options you sold short prior to expiration.

This strategy has substantial cost-cutting benefits when trading higher-priced issues like CMI, but it’s also a very effective short-term income strategy with lower-priced shares.

For example, with Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) trading near $31.50 late last week, an April credit spread using the $31 and $28 puts would bring in a net credit of 75 cents a share, or $225 on a three-option spread.

Since the net margin deposit on the trade would be just $675, you’d get a potential return of 33.3% in only seven weeks if WFC remains above $31 a share.

As you can see, credit put spreads are a great way to boost your gains while lowering your risks, especially in stable or rising markets.

So why not give yourself some credit.

Source http://moneymorning.com/2012/03/05/options-101-credit-put-spreads-can-boost-your-gains-and-lower-your-risk/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email:customerservice@moneymorning.com” target=”_blank”>customerservice@moneymorning.com

Has the #1 Gold Timer of the Year 2011 Turned Bullish?

Todd Market Forecast for Monday March 5, 2012
 
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
                 
DOW    – 15 on 600 net declines
 
NASDAQ COMP   – 26 on 350 net declines
 
SHORT TERM TREND  – Bearish (change)
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND – Bullish  
 
     A projected attenuation of Chinese growth and renewed concerns about Greece caused a Dow drop of as much as 90 points in the early going, but about 2 hours into the trading day, the market began to come back.
    

This has been the pattern for the past few months. It has been a winning trade to buy into intraday weakness. One of these days that trade isn’t going to work anymore.
    

Today the NASDAQ Composite closed below a previous low (arrow) for the first time since mid December. The same is true for the S&P 500. For this reason, we will move to a short term sell. If this index decides to turn and move to another high, then we will have to move back to a buy.

203

TORONTO EXCHANGE:  Toronto got whacked pretty good, down 119 points.
GOLD: Gold was down 15 intraday, but manage to claw its way back. It was still down for the session.
BONDS: Bonds were down marginally.              
THE REST: The dollar was down just a bit. Not much influence on gold, copper and silver which were lower and crude oil, which was higher.
 
BOTTOM LINE:  
    Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
     System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Tuesday.             
     System 7 traders sold the SPY at 136.86 for a loss of .07, essentially break even. Stay in cash on Tuesday.
 
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
     The services ISM number was 57.3, better than the expected 56.0. Factory orders dropped 1.0%, better than the consensus 1.6% drop. There are no important releases scheduled for Tuesday.
————————————————————————————–
We’re on a sell for bonds as of December 21.
 
We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of January 18.              
 
We’re on a buy on gold as of Feb. 21.              
 
We’re on a buy on silver as Feb. 21.        
 
We’re on a buy for crude oil as of Feb. 13.      
 
We’re on a buy for copper as of December 20  
 
We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange TSX
 
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

#1 Timer of the Year

Gold timing was rated # 1 for 1997 and # 2 for 2006. Late word! We were rated # 1 for 2011.

 We were # 1 in long term stock market timing for the years 1998 and 2004 and # 4 in 2010.

To subscribe to the Todd Market Forecast go HERE