Economic Outlook

Eight Phases of Crisis: COVID-19 Edition

I really do want to talk about COVID-19 and get to the bottom of how the issue will progress in the coming months.  While each crisis is different, they are all sort-of-predictable because in the end, people don’t change all that much, even though circumstances do.  Certainly we want to get this all behind us, in the rear view, so to speak.

But what is this pattern I mentioned?  Here are, as near as I can determine, Eight Stages of a Crisis™, a level at which each crisis can be evaluated compared to the other – this is my modification of work originally done by Zunin and Myers.  This is like the Kübler-Ross five stages of grief, but with the apocalypse in mind…CLICK for complete article

Russia Condemns Trump’s Space Mining Order

Russia’s space agency Roscosmos has condemned US President Donald Trump’s order signed this week, which encourages citizens to mine the moon and other celestial bodies with commercial purposes.

The government body likened the policy to colonialism and said it “hardly sets the countries to fruitful cooperation.”

“There have already been examples in history when one country decided to start seizing territories in its interest — everyone remembers what came of it,” Roscosmos’ deputy general director for international cooperation, Sergey Saveliev, said in a statement.

Trump’s order classifies outer space as a “legally and physically unique domain of human activity” instead of a “global commons,” paving the way for mining the moon without any sort of international treaty….CLICK for complete article

Wimbledon Paid $2 million US per year in pandemic insurance for the last 17 years.
The policy paid out $141 million US this year due to the COVID-19 cancellation.

Source: Boston Globe

Canada’s Economy is Beginning to Collapse

Canada’s economy is bracing for its steepest decline on record in the coming months, with unemployment set to rise to its highest in nearly a quarter of a century. Almost 1 million Canadians applied for jobless claims last week, representing almost 5% of the labor force, this does not include the thousands of claims filed over the weekend.

The speed of the jobless claims is record-breaking, the previous record for an entire month was 499,200 which happened in 1957, according to Statistics Canada data. We anticipate the unemployment in Canada will eventually spike higher than where it was in the early 1990s which, was 11.3%.

One of our greatest concerns with regards to the Canadian economy is its banking system even though its balance sheets are much stronger than 2008.

With this being a major business and consumer recession, timing could never be worse. There is extreme corporate and consumer leverage presently persisting throughout Canada, with debt levels in all tiers nearing all time highs….CLICK for complete article

Rounding out what has been a mostly disappointing day for Europe and its new numbers of cases and deaths, France and the UK also reported accelerations in the pace of new cases and deaths.

France reported 1,341 new deaths over the last day, including deaths not only in hospitals but also in nursing homes and other group settings where the virus is known to spread like wildfire.

In the UK, Dominic Raab announced 881 new deaths, bringing the death toll to 7,978. Meanwhile, the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases has reached 65,077, an increase of 4,304.

Over the past three weeks Washington DC, 8 members of the United States Capitol Police have told superiors that they have tested positive, meanwhile in New York, nearly 20% of the NYPD is still out sick, many because of the virus. On Thursday, more than 7,000 officers were out sick.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently was given untrammeled power to direct the government during the response, which some have complained elevated him to the status of ‘dictator’, Orban announced that current restrictions on movement will be extended “indefinitely” a Hungary battles the virus….CLICK for complete article