Economic Outlook

New US Jobless Claims Hit Record 3.28M As Coronavirus Strikes Economy

Initial jobless claims in the week ending March 20 reached 3.283 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. The number is more than triple the estimate of 1 million new claims.

The prior week’s figure was 281,000. The number reported Thursday far exceeds the prior initial jobless claims record of 695,000 in 1982, Bloomberg reported.

U.S. continuing claims for March 13 were at 1.803 million. The prior reading was revised from an initial 1.701 million to 1.702 million.

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The spread of the coronavirus means more than 1 million Americans are forecast to have filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to The Wall Street Journal…CLICK for complete article

Is it ALL Disruptive?

We have never been through times like these, as the novel corona virus (COVID-19) ravages populations and economies across the globe. Globally, the disease continues to spread, although it looks like China has gotten past their peak. What many would view as draconian measures seem to be what it took for China to get past being the epicenter of the pandemic. The rest of the world has not reached the peak, so there is no end in sight for us in the Western world. There are many strategies, rules, policies, and protocols enacted to “flatten the peak” and each day, each hour, these rules get more stringent. We must escalate the fight…Click for full article.

World’s Largest Oil Trader Says Demand Could Plummet By 20 Million Bpd

A dramatic change in oil demand coupled with an unexpected increase in production has upended the industry, Vitol’s chief executive Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview.

At its peak, oil demand could slump by 15 to 20 million bpd over the next few weeks. On an annual basis, Hardy said, this would contribute to a demand decline of 5 million bpd.

“It’s pretty huge in terms of anything we’ve had to deal with before,” Vitol’s chief executive said.

More bad news is coming, too. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi just ordered a nationwide lockdown in response to a spike in new coronavirus cases, which, hardy noted, will translate into a further decline in oil demand, and a substantial one, at that.

Asked by Bloomberg about where oil prices will be going from here, Hardy noted that more oil and oil products were being churned out than the world can consume, so stockpiles in the U.S., Europe, and India will rise, with refineries cutting output.

So far, he said, the cuts amount to about 7 million bpd.

Even so, storage is filling up, especially for oil products. While there is some free capacity yet for crude oil, it will likely fill up fast, putting additional pressure on prices…CLICK for complete article

Does Gold Still Have Some Room To Run?

In the 1960s, French politician Valéry d’Estaing complained that the United States enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” due to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. He had a point.

Because the dollar is the world’s currency, the US can borrow cheaper than it could otherwise (lower interest rates), US banks and companies can conveniently do cross-border business using their own currency, and when there is geopolitical tension, central banks and investors buy US Treasuries, keeping the dollar high and the United States insulated from the conflict. A government that borrows in a foreign currency can go bankrupt; not so when it borrows from abroad in its own currency ie. through foreign purchases of US Treasury bills….CLICK for complete article

Last night, when observing the unprecedented “gold run” on precious metals dealers which has left all gold vendors with little to no physical gold, we said that “the price of physical gold has decoupled from paper gold” as a result of paper gold liquidations as leveraged funds scramble to cover margin calls using safe assets resulting in an arbitrage that physical gold buyers, i.e., those who don’t have faith in gold ETFs such as the GDX or simply prefer to have possession of the metal, find especially delightful as it allows them to buy physical gold at lower prices than they would ordinarily have access to.

However, we also noted that whereas in the past such conditions were self-correcting, this time it is not only a record surge in demand for physical gold but also a near shut down in supply as the most productive gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticina, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, now appear to be offline indefinitely….CLICK for complete article