Economic Outlook

Global oil demand is set to plunge by more than 10 percent from the typical 100-million-bpd consumption, as the raging coronavirus pandemic forces countries into lockdown, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol.
“Demand destruction this year depends on how many countries follow an Italian-style lockdown. The drop in Italian consumption has been dramatic. If you extrapolate it to the rest of Europe, and particularly the U.S., then you can get as bearish as you like,” Giovanni Serio, head of research at Vitol, told Reuters on Friday.
According to the executive at the largest oil trader in the world, a 10-percent drop in U.S. demand would mean a 2 million bpd loss in consumption. Currently, an Italy-style lockdown in the United States is not Vitol’s base case, but if Covid-19 infections spiral out of control, there could be drastic measures coming that would destroy a lot of oil demand.
California, for example, is already under lockdown, after ordering on Thursday its 40 million residents to stay at home unless they have an essential reason to go out.
In Europe, lockdowns in Italy, Spain, and France are crushing oil demand, German traffic is down 40 percent, and if the UK takes more measures to curb domestic travel, around 40 percent of Europe’s 7-million-bpd demand is at risk, Vitol’s Serio told Reuters….CLICK for complete article

Back in December, someone in China made bat soup (at least according to the officially accepted narrative that doesn’t get you banned on Facebook, Twitter, etc), and the rest is history: in the next three months, the global equity market has lost $24 trillion in value, more than the $22 trillion in US GDP. And here is a staggering chart from BofA putting the crash of 2020 in its historic context: in the past month, the US stock market has crashed faster than both the Great Depression and Black Monday, and in terms of the total drawdown, the crash of 2020 is now worse than 1929 and is fast approaching 1987….CLICK for complete article

A new poll shows nearly 19% of Americans have been laid off from their jobs or have experienced a reduction in their work hours as a result of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
The survey, conducted by The Marist Poll, found that the proportion affected grew for lower-income households, with 25% of those making less than $50,000 a year reporting that they had been let go or had been scheduled for reduced hours. The same poll found that about 56% of Americans still consider the coronavirus outbreak a “real threat”, while 38% said it was “blown out of proportion”.
Travel and hospitality industries have been hit the most.
Severe drops in demand, quarantine measures and various other travel restrictions are expected to spread across virtually the entire economy. So far, though, restaurants, bars, hotels and airlines are among the hardest-hit sectors.
In the travel industry alone, a report by the U.S. Travel Association is projecting 4.6 million jobs lost this year….CLICK for complete article

Symptoms include panic buying and hoarding toilet paper.
