Timing & trends

The Real Investment Guide For The Next Decade

Posted by Lance Roberts

on Tuesday, 14 January 2020 11:34

As we head into the next decade, this complete set of articles delves into the fallacies of always owning stocks for the long run (aka “buy and hold” and passive strategies). Given that market’s cycle over time, it is important to understand how markets, and investing actually work, the impact on your wealth, and what you can do about it.

This series of articles will cover the following key points:

  • “Buy and Hold,” and other passive strategies are fine, just not all of the time
  • Markets go through long periods where investors are losing money or simply getting back to even
  • The sequence of returns is far more important than the average of returns
  • “Time horizons” are vastly under-appreciated.
  • Portfolio duration, investor duration, and risk tolerance should be aligned.
  • The “value of compounding” only works when large losses are not incurred.
  • There are periods when risk-free Treasury bonds offer expected returns on par, or better than equities with significantly less risk.
  • Investor psychology plays an enormous role in investors’ returns
  • Solving the puzzle: Solutions to achieving long-term returns and the achievement of financial goals.
  • Spot what’s missing: A compendium of investing wisdom from the world’s greatest investors.

CLICK for articles

It’s Time to Pay Attention to Commercial & Industrial Loans

Posted by Wolf Richter

on Tuesday, 14 January 2020 11:29

Commercial and industrial loans (C&I loans) at all commercial banks fell to $2.33 trillion as of January 1, the lowest since March 2019, according to Federal Reserve data on commercial banks, released on Friday. C&I loans peaked in August last year at $2.38 trillion and have since fallen 1.7%. This has occurred despite three rate cuts by the Fed over the period.

C&I loans are used by businesses for working capital or to finance capital expenditures. Working capital loans are usually collateralized by receivables and inventories. Capital expenditure loans are collateralized by equipment and the like.

These loans are often credit lines with floating interest rates – which are very low and very appealing for borrowers. And banks are eager to extend these loans and are offering them aggressively, even to my little company. So there is no issue at this side of the equation…CLICK for complete article

How The Trade War Ceasefire Will Impact The Energy Industry

Posted by Simon Watkins

on Tuesday, 14 January 2020 11:24

Although the focus of those in the oil markets has been focused on the tensions between Iran and the U.S. in recent days, with many now thinking that the worst of this impasse has now passed (it has not), primary focus is now set to return to the previous major market driver: the U.S.-China trade war. As U.S. President Donald Trump noted recently in a conversation with China’s Vice Premier, Liu He: “Every time there’s a little bad [trade war] news, the market would go down incredibly. Every time there was a little bit of good news, the market would go up incredibly. And yet, other news that was also very big, the market just didn’t really care. They just seemed to care about the deal with [the] USA and China, and that’s okay with me.” This Wednesday, the U.S. and China are set to sign a ‘Phase 1’ deal that theoretically brings to an end 18 months of trade warfare but the reality may be somewhat different. CLICK for complete article

The Silver Lining in the Gold Bull Market

Posted by Larisa Sprott

on Friday, 10 January 2020 9:32

This article was suggested by our friends at Endeavour Silver.

Gold prices, which are up more than 35% during the past four years, recently eased into a trading range following a double digit price jump during 2019. So far this year, silver prices are running just slightly behind.

Long-time traders liken silver to “gold on steroids” because in past rallies it has tended to lag the yellow metal at the start, but then vault past as retail buyers flocked in.

I remember well silver nearly tripling in value to nearly $50 USD an ounce amidst the 2008 financial crisis.

We are seeing many of the same signs right now. Silver shipments by the Royal Canadian Mint spiked by 42% during the third quarter and are up 29% year to date.

Wholesalers tell me they can’t get enough of the stuff, particularly 100 ounce silver bars….CLICK for complete article

Visualizing How the Demographics of China and India are Diverging

Posted by Jeff Desjardins

on Thursday, 9 January 2020 10:23

Within popular discourse, especially in the West, the profiles of China and India have become inextricably linked.

Aside from their massive populations and geographical proximity in Asia, the two nations also have deep cultural histories and traditions, growing amounts of influence on the world stage, and burgeoning middle classes.

China and India combine to be home to one-third of the world’s megacities, and they even had identical real GDP growth rates of 6.1% in 2019, based on early estimates by the IMF.

But aside from the obvious differences in their political regimes, the two populous nations have also diverged in another way: demographics.

As seen in today’s animation, which comes from AnimateData and leverages data from the United Nations, the two countries are expected to have very different demographic compositions over time as their populations age…CLICK for complete article