Wealth Building Strategies

Ignoring Economic Reality: Ayn Rand Would Laugh

“We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand. Today Gary Christensen lays out the 3 comforting beliefs are incorrect and will be proven false in coming years and what asset will have more purchasing power in the next 10 years – R. Zurrer for Money Talks

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The western world has ignored economic realities for decades. It’s not a Republican or Democratic problem. Banking, power, fiat currencies, dishonest money and transfers of wealth are the issues.

The consequences of ignoring reality are uncomfortable and dangerous. However, most people prefer palatable, easy to digest and believable stories.

In the United States, the U.K., Europe, and Japan it is comforting to believe:

  • Debt has increased exponentially for decades and for over 100 years in the US. We want to believe debt will grow for another century. (It won’t.)
  • Governments want to borrow, spend their way into prosperity, and pretend and extend indefinitely. (Not likely.)
  • It is comforting to believe our politicians and central bankers manage our countries and currencies for the benefit of the populace. (Don’t plan on it.)
  • Every major country uses a central bank. It is comforting to believe central banks are necessary. That delusion benefits the banking cartel and the political and financial elite.
  • It is comforting to believe gold is not necessary. Per Warren Buffett, we dig it from the ground and store it in a vault. Russians and Asians know its value and always want more.
  • It is comforting to believe in paper assets, debt based assets, fairy tales and the Easter Bunny. Gold, silver, platinum, land, and other real assets survive. Gold thrives, paper dies.

 These comforting beliefs are incorrect and will be proven false in coming years.

The U.S. national debt has increased from about $3 billion in 1913 to over $21,000 billion ($21 trillion) in 2018. That is an average annual increase of about 8.8% per year. A similar debt increase for another 100 years will exceed $90,000 Trillion. Delusion!

  1. The crisis of 2008 hinted that “peak debt” had arrived. The Fed and other central banks responded by creating more debt and took credit for saving global economies. More debt is not a solution. The coming implosion will be destructive.
  2. Place one penny in a savings account at 6% annual interest and allow it to grow for 1,000 years. Your $0.01 has grown to a few hundred bucks—right? No! It has grown to $202,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. (Yes, the math is correct.)
  3. Compound interest rapidly increases debt. Debt will not increase forever and a reckoning will occur. What is the value of a 30 year bond yielding 3%, issued by an insolvent government that cannot pay the interest without going deeper into debt?

CONSIDER:

  • Central Banks: Central banks and commercial banks produce paper and digital currency units that devalue all existing currency units. Central banks create profit for their owners and the financial and political elite. They are not beneficial for most people and small businesses.
  • Gold: The western financial and political elite claim gold is mostly useless. However gold has been money for thousands of years, is valued globally, and is convertible into paper and digital cash everywhere. An ounce of gold sold for about $42 in 1971 and sells for about $1,330 in March 2018 – a compounded annual increase of 7.6%.
  • Debt: The debt pyramid will crash and bonds and currencies will decline toward intrinsic value. Central banks will create more currency units to “paper over” the crisis and gold will increase in price as dollars devalue.

Ignoring Reality and the Consequences:

“We can ignore reality but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” The consequences are:

  • U.S. government spending and national debt growth are “out-of-control.” Expect continual dollar devaluation.
  • Based on Fed policies and government actions, the Fed can save either the dollar’s purchasing power or the bond market. Pick one!
  • Because an imploding bond market will destroy credit and the economy, expect the Fed to sacrifice the dollar, not the bond market.
  • However, the Fed and the U.S. government may kill all three – the stock market, bond market and dollar – in their delusional efforts to project military power and protect the banking cartel.
  • Gold and silver prices must increase as all fiat currencies devalue. Another country might back their currency with gold to prevent further devaluation. It won’t be the United States.
  • The cumulative damage from past economic delusions increases gold prices. The western financial world should be worried. Trouble, trauma, and a reckoning lie ahead.
  • Confidence in the dollar affects gold prices. When the dollar plummets, gold prices at $3,000, $5,000 and $10,000 will be sensible.

Which will have more purchasing power in ten years?

  • An ounce of gold or 14 one-hundred dollar bills?
  • An ounce of silver or a politician’s promise?
  • A ten year note for $10,000 purchased in 2018 that yields less than 3%, or 7 ounces of gold?

Gary Christenson, The Deviant Investor

Call Miles Franklin at 1-800-822-8080 or WhyNotGold at 1-888-966-8465 to purchase real metals that will survive the coming debt-based asset implosion. History will not repeat, but many examples show that the purchasing power of gold will thrive while unbacked paper currencies will not.

This is When Gold Will Soar…

Despite the insistence of some, precious metals have not been in a bull market. After a big pop at the start of 2016, the sector has trended lower. Sure, Gold has traded up towards a major breakout but Silver and the gold stocks have trended lower. When the US Dollar corrected significantly, the stock market outperformed precious metals. Does that sound like a Gold bull market to you? The moribund performance has left us wondering what could turn the tide. A quick study of Fed history with the context of current conditions is very instructive as to when Gold could begin a true bull market.

Fundamentally speaking, we know that Gold performs best when real rates are declining or will soon begin declining. That usually entails either accelerating inflation (surpassing the increase in nominal rates) or falling rates amid stable inflation. At this juncture we are leaning towards the latter as the eventual catalyst for Gold.  

We were curious how Fed policy and policy changes impacted precious metals so we decided to plot the Fed Funds rate (above) along with gold stocks (middle) and Gold (bottom). We used the gold stocks (Barron’s Gold Mining Index) because they have a longer history than Gold. The vertical lines in blue mark lows in the BGMI that coincided with peaks in the Fed Funds rate (FFR) while the vertical lines in red mark lows in the BGMI that coincided with a bottom in the FFR.

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Fed Funds Rate, Gold Stocks & Gold

 

Outside of the highly inflationary 1970s, the best bull markets in gold stocks began around the time the Fed Funds rate peaked (or in other words when the Fed ended its rate hikes). Lows in 1993, 1999 and 2016 coincided with the start of a new hiking cycle. However, unlike the lows in 1972 and 1976, inflation did not accelerate enough to drive more than a rebound.  

Does that signal that gold stocks (and precious metals at large) need an end to the rate hikes?

The period from 1999 to 2001 is very instructive as there are several similarities between 1999-2000 and 2016-2017.

Like 1999, 2016 followed a nasty bear market in Gold and hard assets.

Also, the 1999 bottom in precious metals and commodities occurred around the time the Fed began a new cycle of rate hikes. Sound familiar to 2016?

As the Fed continued to hike into 2000, Gold and gold stocks trailed off but commodities were able to make higher highs until the very end of 2000. Commodities have not been quite as strong this time but they have outperformed precious metals which have trailed off since the initial rebound.

Gold and gold stocks ultimately bottomed and began spectacular rebounds around the time the Fed moved from a pause in rate hikes to rate cuts at the very start of 2001.

 

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1999-2001: Fed Funds Rate, Gold Stocks, Gold, Commodities

 

Unless there is an acceleration in inflation, the turning point for precious metals figures to be around the time the Fed ends its rate hikes. That would likely coincide with Gold regaining outperformance against the stock market, which we have noted as Gold’s missing link (from an intermarket perspective). Weakness in the economy and stock market would lead to an end to the rate hikes and then rate cuts. That would be the time Gold and gold stocks begin a major move higher. In the meantime we continue to focus on and accumulate the juniors that have 300% to 500% return potential.

Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

The Rise in US Share Market in Foreign Currencies

Martin Armstrong forecast the current flood of money from foreign countries into the US Stock Market 28 years ago on Michael Campbell’s Equity Magazine (Martin’s posting to follow):

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Now here is today’s post “The Rise in US Share Market in Foreign Currencies” – R. Zurrer for Money Talks

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COMMENT: I spoke this “pretend” analyst who use to be a goldbug and is now a cryptobug. Boy does he hate you. I really had to laugh for heInvisibleHand-2 said your computer is a fraud and your forecast on the euro was only correct because you organized it with central banks. I asked him who writes more than 500 reports on every market around the world each and every day? He said you did with staff. I asked him, how many people would it take to do that? He had no answer.

I probably would have lost an equal amount in BitCoin buying it at the high based on his emails. Thank you for opening my eyes to see everything globally. It really has helped.

GHH

REPLY: I know. I use to get real hate mail from the goldbugs. Now it is the crypto people. They really get all worked up all the time about this new technology and that how a central ledger will overtake the world. They seem to have forgotten it took 100 years for the Fax Machine to become practical. They are desperate to preach their theories because they are trying to convince the world they are right so they can make a fortune. They are like the people they hate. They are trying to manipulate the world to be as they desire rather than observing how does the world actually work.

Here is the S&P500 expressed in various currencies (click on image). This simple illustration shows how the world really functions. You will note that the S&P 500 is consolidating in US$ terms, but it is starting to breakout and make all time new highs in various currencies like the Euro. This is what I mean that each and every person will act according to their own self-interest. That is Smith’s invisible hand. The crypto advocates

are actually cheering a one-world currency. They cannot understand that the Euro is failing because centralized planning fails. Their distributed ledger requires taking political power away from governments and installing a one-world economy where we all use the same cryptocurrency. They are blind to the simple reality that we do not have that much time left. We will still crash and burn BEFORE any reform can take place. Nobody fixes anything until it breaks. Sorry – that’s human nature. We don’t have decades here.

 

I really do not need this nonsense. I could care less what they say or do. They are an irrelevant distraction. Nothing will prevent the collapse of the monetary system. They cannot see that. It’s not my job to convince them of anything. Let them go down with their theories. I promised I would not leave anyone behind. That does not mean I must convert these type of people who will never listen. Nevertheless, we do not do ANYadvertising and prefer to keep the individual readership small. Our bread & butter is institutions. If it was up to me, I would retire. But you see, there is no real future for we will have a choice. We move to a totalitarian state where the government will take even more power, or we move toward the light of reform and freedom. I do what I do for my posterity. That is my self-interest.

Institutions, on the other hand, prefer I do no interviews with mainstream media and to shun advertising. Naturally, they do not want to see millions of followers. Everyone wants an edge. It is a difficult road to follow through the raindrops. This is the cards we have been dealt. We just have to play them out. The crypto people would not be so nasty toward me if they were secure in what they believe. They know they have to sell their idea and convince an entire world. That is a tall order.

Less than 5% of the money is really physical. The bulk is already electronic entries. Things are changing and ONLY AFTER the crash and burn is there an opportunity for reform. But make no mistake about it, if we crash, but do not burn, then the government will gladly take them up on electronic currency so they can monitor and tax everyone on everything. Their dream is to eliminate cash. They argue it would also end crime and deficits because every querter you find on the groud they will now get their 50%+.

Is All Hell About To Break Loose?

 With things beginning to come unglued in key global markets led by the Italian trouble, is all hell about to break loose?

May 29 (King World News) – Here is what Peter Boockvar had to say as the world awaits the next round of monetary madness:  The unwind of everything the ECB tried to suppress in the Italian bond market is now truly extraordinary and scary in its rapidity. The 163 bps (as of this writing) spike (or crash in bond price) takes the yield to 2.53%, the highest level since September 2012, just a few months after Mario Draghi said “whatever it takes” in wanting to save the euro. 

The yield was about .60% when negative interest rate policy took hold in June 2014. The 10 yr jump is more tame, only 43 bps to 3.10% and that is about where it was in June 2014. I’ve called for a while the European bond market as an epic bubble that at least in Italy so far is coming undone. It’s however intensifying again in the flight to safety countries such as Germany, France and the UK. I can’t even begin to know how Mario Draghi deals with the mess that he sowed the seeds for (see chart below).

Massive Spike In Italian Yields!

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….continue reading HERE

also from KingWorldNews:

Is The Gold Market Finally Setup To Break The Gold Ceiling?

 

Todd Market Forecast: Looking For Wednesday Turnaround

 After an exceptional 2017 showing a 31% return, in 2018 Stephen Todd remarkably missed the big Stock decline in January and currently has a positve return on the year with 3 profitable out of 5 trades – R. Zurrer for Money Talks

For Tuesday May 29, 2018 – 3:00 PST

DOW – 392 on 507 net declines

NASDAQ COMP – 37 on 732 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: On Friday, I predicted that the next couple of days should be up unless some sort of geopolitical event comes out of left field. Well, that’s exactly what happened. There was a political crisis in Italy and this spread fear of multiple exits from the euro currency. 

And if that weren’t enough. the prospect of a China, U.S. trade conflict raised its ugly head again. 

Then there were interest rates which dropped sharply. Lower rates hurt the banks. Hey wait. Weren’t we concerned about rates being too high a few weeks ago? That’s why we have to look at the charts. They tend to summarize the diverse inputs.

GOLD: Gold was up $2 You would think that with all the uncertainty, and a big drop in interest rates, that gold would have done better. Of course, the dollar kept surging and that kept a lid on the yellow metal. 

CHART: Just looking at the chart without the indicator, it looks negative. we’ve seen some support lines broken. However, we are not oversold as measured by 5 day RSI (arrow). An oversold RSI has a pretty good record for predicting rebounds.

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BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)

 

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO from 112.24. We should turn it around on Wednesday, but if the S&P 500 is lower with 5 minutes left in the session, sell at the close. 

System 9 Neutral. 

System 10 – Gold We are in cash. Stay there for now. 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Durable goods orders lost 1.7%, worse than the expected loss of 1.2%. Consumer sentiment was 98, lower than last month’s 98.8. On Tuesday we get the Case Shiller home price index and consumer confidence. 

INTERESTING STUFF Justice will not come to Athens until those who are not injured are as indignant as those who are injured. —–Thucydides

TORONTO EXCHANGE:Toronto lost 94. 

BONDS: Bonds had another sharp rise. 

THE REST: The dollar surged to another new high. Crude oil got hit yet again. Crude is quite oversold.

Bonds –Bullish as of May 21. 

U.S. dollar – Bullish as of May 15.

Euro — Bearish as of May 15.

Gold —-Bullish as of May 24.

Silver—- Bullish as of May 10.

Crude oil —-Bearish as of May 24.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

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Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.