Economic Outlook

Martin Armstrong: You May Soon Be Able to Regrow an Arm or Leg

axolotl-baby-Salamander-1024x532The Mexican axolotl salamander can regrow lost limbs in a matter of weeks which includes the bones, muscles, nerves and the whole enchilada. When scientists sought to map its DNA to figure out how it does it, to their shock, it turned out to be more than 10 times bigger than that of human DNA. Indeed, it had 32 billion base pairs of DNA making it the largest genome ever sequenced, according to Nature.

The project has taught us a few new lessons. A gene called PAX3, was previously considered to be essential to the development of an organism. This gene was completely missing from the genome. Instead, the related gene PAX7 appears to have taken over those critical functions. What they discovered was several genes unique to axolotls and other amphibians that are linked to regeneration.

Well, they may be still decades away from regrowing limbs, but sequencing the axolotl genome was a giant step forward for mankind in decoding how this ability to regrow limbs can evolve and function. It may also lead to the development of new methods to heal wounds faster.

….also from Martin”

The Revenge of Martin Armstrong

Amazon, Buffett, JPMorgan Team Up on Healthcare: Hot Air or Real Deal?

 

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Three high-power firms agreed to take on rising healthcare costs. Sceptics abound. Can they succeed where others failed?

Three corporate behemoths — Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase — announced on Tuesday that they would form an independent health care company for their employees in the United States.

It was unclear how extensively the three partners would overhaul their employees’ existing health coverage — whether they would simply help workers find a local doctor, steer employees to online medical advice or use their muscle to negotiate lower prices for drugs and procedures.

Details are scant but hopes are high in this joint BusinessWire Statement.

Three Statements

  • Warren Buffett: “The ballooning costs of healthcare act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy. Our group does not come to this problem with answers. But we also do not accept it as inevitable. Rather, we share the belief that putting our collective resources behind the country’s best talent can, in time, check the rise in health costs while concurrently enhancing patient satisfaction and outcomes.”
  • Jeff Bezos: “The healthcare system is complex, and we enter into this challenge open-eyed about the degree of difficulty,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “Hard as it might be, reducing healthcare’s burden on the economy while improving outcomes for employees and their families would be worth the effort. Success is going to require talented experts, a beginner’s mind, and a long-term orientation.”
  • Jamie Dimon: “Our people want transparency, knowledge and control when it comes to managing their healthcare.The three of our companies have extraordinary resources, and our goal is to create solutions that benefit our U.S. employees, their families and, potentially, all Americans”

Details Scant, Sceptics Abound

CNBC says this is a Lot Tougher Than It Looks.

  • Evercore health-care analyst Ross Muken: “Bending the overall health-cost curve isn’t about controlling drug prices, modernizing the supply chain or improving devices. Those are all relatively small parts of spending and some of those parts are deflationary already. This is about getting to the guts of the system and where the inefficiency lies, which is physicians and hospitals. A majority of the costs in the system sit within organizations that are difficult to reform. Furthermore, trying to tackle physician compensation also seems like a heroic effort and one that is likely to cause massive uproar, particularly amongst the senior population.”
  • Mickey Chadha, a vice president at Moody’s: The new joint venture “could be disruptive” and put competitive pressure on pharmacy giants CVS and Walgreens and pharmacy benefit managers, but the regulatory burden around every aspect of health care puts “any new entrant in the space at a huge disadvantage. Companies like CVS, Walgreens, United Healthcare, Aetna and Express Scripts already have large scale, which allows for better vendor and drug manufacturer contracting and the ability to serve national clients.”
  • Gary Claxton, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, said the biggest driver of health costs is the money spent on sick and very sick people. “It’s not clear what private payers can do” to drive down those costs, Claxton said, referring to insurance plans such as those offered by Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, J.P. Morgan Chase and other businesses, as opposed to large publicly provided health coverage systems such as Medicare and Medicaid.

Tough or Impossible?

Gary Claxton nails the largest problem: “The biggest driver of health costs is the money spent on sick and very sick people.”

Right to Die

Does your policy cover lung cancer? Why should it have to?

But if it doesn’t, why are you entitled to treatment?

I am a strong believer in the right to die. Spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep someone alive for an extra few months is absurd.

Lack of Choices

Obamacare mandated Gold, Silver, and Bronze options. I propose letting insurers offer whatever plans they want.

Basic coverage might cover emergencies, but not long-term cancer treatments.

The marketplace, not government bureaucrats should come up with plans and pricing. Let people pick the options they want.

Mish Health Care Proposals

Published fees: Fees for routine services, medicine, and operations need to be published, not set by government mandate. Whether or not someone is insured, the fees should be the same.

Shopping Around: People should be encouraged to shop around for the lowest-cost provider. Insurers can help. Want to go somewhere else? If your policy covers what you seek, fine. If not, you pay extra.

Foreign Services: Bloomberg reported Heart Surgery in India for $1,583 Costs $106,385 in U.S.Demand treatment in the US? Fine. You should have to pay for it with higher premiums. It’s a free choice. Obviously, this provision does not apply to emergency services like an accident or a heart attack.

Drug Pricing: Allow imports of drugs to increase competition. Medicaid and Medicare should buy in bulk from the lowest cost provider.

Right to Die: No one should be kept alive if they want to die. Nor should someone be artificially kept alive if they do not have insurance, or their spouse or designated appointee wants to pull the plug on their behalf.

Right to Refuse Service: If someone is not insured, hospitals should have the right to refuse service.

Medicare/Medicaid: Currently, those over 65 do not care what things cost. Incentives are necessary to make sure they do. This includes forcing overseas treatment for those able to travel. Once again, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep someone alive for an extra few months is beyond absurd. Medicare should be no different on foreign care or shopping around.

Patent Restrictions: Patent laws need to be revised to prohibit making minor changes and renewing patents for extended periods again and again.

Eliminate State Restrictions: Allow any insurance company in any state sell insurance in whatever states they want.

Bezos Factor

My proposals provide significant cost savings opportunities forced on drug providers, allowed by hospitals, and allowed by insurers, at a huge benefit to insureds.

Some of my proposals require significant changes to Obamacare. So what?

With Buffett, Bezos, and Dimon on board, such changes are not impossible.

I do not dismiss anything out of hand when Jeff Bezos and Amazon are involved.

By Mike “Mish” Shedlock

 

How Will The SPX 500 Reach 4000?

There is no real secret to the market. In fact, it is rather simple. But, that does not mean the specific smaller degree moves in the market will be just as simple.

You see, markets are no different wherever you look. Whether that be metals, equities, Forex, crypto-currencies, etc, they all react in the exact same way. Markets simply move from one extreme to another. And, we need to be able to identify where those extremes can cause a turn. 

Moreover, in making your determination of turning points, there is no one definitive point at which a market must turn. Rather, we are dealing in probabilities when we attempt to analyze that which is non-linear in nature, such as the financial markets. 

For those that have followed me for years, you would know that this is exactly how I apply my analysis. As an example, we were able to identify major shift changes in the DXY when we called for a multi-year rally in 2011 when we were in the 74 region, with a long term target in the 103.50 region. 

Another example was when we caught the top in the gold market in 2011 within $6 of the high actually struck. However, our initial expectation was that gold would see a 40% pullback. And, before gold even struck its high, we noted that if that 40% drop would not hold support, it could open the door for gold to correct all the way back down to the $1,000 region. Many disregarded our analysis since everyone was so certain it would easily eclipse the $2,000 region during the parabolic phase it was in at the time I made this call. So, when gold gave us a 40% correction from our top call, we began looking for a resurrection of the bull market. Yet, when the market made it clear that it was not going to resurrect, we began looking down to that $1,000-1100 region before looking for another bottoming structure.

This is how we view markets, as we do not believe that anything MUST happen within the financial markets. 

As another example, back in 2015, we had LONG term targets in the SPX at 3500. And, we maintained this perspective even when the market pulled back to the 1800 region in early 2016. Our immediate target from the 1800 region was the 2537-2611 region, at which time, we expected a standard pullback before we would march onto our next target region between 2800-3000.

Well, as you can see, we were clearly not perfect in our smaller degree expectations for a pullback from our initial target zone. While I would love to be able to accurately identify each twist and turn in the market, the fact that I am a fallible human being attempting to analyze a non-linear system makes perfection unattainable. 

Again, we deal in probabilities when we analyze these non-linear financial markets. That suggests we should not expect a market moving in one direction for an extended period of time. And, clearly, we did not expect a market to pullback to only .118 and .236 retracement levels, when standards suggest .328-500 retracements. Yet, that is all the pullback that the market gave us on our way up towards the 3000 region. 

So, while markets often provide us standard paths to follow the great majority of the time, if one understands the non-linear nature of the market, then one also understands that the market will act outside of standards in the minority of times. That is what seems to have occurred in the last 6 months. But, that does not mean one should abandon analyzing markets based upon standard higher-probability patterns to which the market adheres the great majority of the time. Rather, it means one has to understand that the market may not adhere to those patterns in the minority of instances, accept that, and move on.

In summary, one must maintain a broader perspective of the market based upon probabilities. And, in order to maintain an appropriate risk management perspective, one should reduce their higher risk positions when we strike a standard target, but maintain core stock holdings during a long term 3rd wave. This is what I noted to the members of my services, and how I handle a market that extends beyond standard expectations. 

Lastly, to show you the general perspective I have maintained in the overall equity market for many years, I am attaching a monthly chart of how I see us continuing in this bull market, which likely still has a number of years to run. While we are certainly getting closer to a point where a 15-20% correction can be seen, that will simply be another buying opportunity before the market rallies north of 3500SPX in the early 2020’s. And, for those wondering, this chart has been relatively unchanged for the last several years, other than adjusting for this extension in wave (3) of v of 3.

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See all charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

The Dollar Breakdown: A Sign of Inflation to Come?

Recently, we saw the dollar index (the DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of the world’s major currencies, break below its support of 91 for the first time since January of 2015 (Figure 1). This event may signal the most important trend of 2018: the breakdown of the dollar.

fig1

 

The recent drop of .96 percent was the second largest drop in over a year and caught many traders by surprise…

….continue reading HERE

Todd Market Forecast: No Fear Yet

Wednesday January 31, 2018 www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 73 on 186 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 9 on 699 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Very choppy day. In the early going, the Dow was up a whopping 261 points. It then proceeded to give it all back, eventually going underwater by 25 points before surging back.

So, what is going on? Most likely end of month adjustments complicated by computer algorithms.

January was up150 S&P 500 points or 5.6%. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, an up January predicts that the remainder of the year will be up with an 89.1% accuracy.

Near term setbacks aside, this market should have further gains in store, not only because of the above statistic, but because of earnings and decreased regulations.

GOLD: Gold was up $9. Long term rates were lower and the Fed declined to raise short term rates.

CHART: We continue to be somewhat concerned about the low readings of the 5 day m.a. of the CBOE Put Call Ratio. The decline should have put more fear into option traders.   

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

 

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. We are concerned about the low readings of the put call ratio, but most gauges are oversold. Let’s try a scalp. Buy the SSO at the open on Thursday.

System 9 Currently neutral.  

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The ADP employment report showed an additional 234,000 jobs. The consensus was for 195,000. Oil inventories rose 6.8 million. Last week they dropped 1.1 million. On Thursday we get jobless claims, the PMI manufacturing index and the ISM manufacturing index.  

INTERESTING STUFF: Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time. —Thomas A. Edison

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 4.

BONDS: Bonds rebounded somewhat.

THE REST: The dollar was lower. Crude oil bounced.

Bonds –Bearish as of Jan. 9.

U.S. dollar – Bearish as of Jan 12.

Euro — Bullish as of Jan 12.

Gold —-Bearish as of Jan 26.

Silver—- Bearish as of Jan 26.

Crude oil —-Bearish as of January 30.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bearish as of January 29, 2018.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

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Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.