I have lain in wait before writing this stark a warning on Bitcoin, because if you “cry wolf” too often with something like this, you are simply written off as a fool within days if it carries on up and up. It could yet do so, but now we are seeing really extreme manifestations of mania suggesting that the top is at hand, and if not we are very close to it.
Bitcoin has gone more vertical than the vertical face of Half Dome in Yosemite National Park in recent weeks, and those of us with memories of past manias and crashes know exactly what that means. Any old timers amongst you remember shrewd but mercenary upper class types tipping the family silver into the furnace to flog it off at inflated prices in 1979 – 1980 during the terminal spike in silver? Over the past few weeks we have seen Bitcoin boutiques opening in South Korea and heard stories about people mortgaging their houses to buy Bitcoin and borrowing to the hilt, and pundits “playing to the gallery” by proclaiming astronomic prices for Bitcoin in the future, although wait a minute, they’re already astronomic. The more ludicrously high their predictions the more their acolytes love them for it. The next thing you know they’ll be bringing Carlton Sheets out of retirement to do infomercials for aspiring get rich quick Millennials whose ultimate ambition is become wealthy without doing any work so they can spend even more time fiddling with their Smartphones, and there couldn’t be any more serious warning than that.
Anyway, the pattern on the Bitcoin charts has all the hallmarks of a final terminal blowoff that will be followed by a catastrophic wipeout and probably soon, and when that happens you don’t want to be anywhere near it, either that or short. The inexperienced get rich quick merchants who have been flocking in droves to Bitcoin in recent weeks will be vaporized.
…..also: It’s Official: Bitcoin Surpasses “Tulip Mania”, Is Now The Biggest Bubble In World History
Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.
Intraday trade: Our Wednesday’s intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved partly accurate because the S&P 500 lost 0.05% following higher opening of the trading session. The index extended its short-term uptrend, as it reached new record high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term technical overbought conditions. Therefore, intraday short position is favored today. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,680 and potential profit target is at 2,640 (S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish again. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.05% and +0.3% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the FOMC Rate Decision announcement. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 2,671.88 (around 2 points above its Tuesday’s record high) following interest rate hike release. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it gained 0.3%. It has reached new record high at the level of 24,666.02. The technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% yesterday, remaining below its late November record high. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,660, marked by recent daily lows. The next support level is at 2,650. The support level is also at 2,640, marked by last Friday’s daily gap up of 2,640.99-2,644.10. On the other hand, resistance level is at around 2,670-2,675, marked by new all-time high. Will the S&P 500 index continue its uptrend? Or is this some topping pattern before medium-term downward correction? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see medium-term technical overbought conditions along with negative technical divergences:
Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are slightly positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.2% vs. their Wednesday’s closing prices. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.3-0.5% so far. Investors will wait for some economic data announcements: Retail Sales, Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI at 9:45 a.m., Business Inventories at 10:00 a.m. The market expects that Retail Sales grew 0.3% in November. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it continues to fluctuate along new record high. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,675. On the other hand, support level is at 2,660-2,665, marked by some recent local lows. The next level of support is at 2,650-2,655, marked by short-term fluctuations. The futures contract trades along its new record high, as the 15-minute chart shows:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday consolidation. The market extends its yesterday’s fluctuations along new record high. For now, it looks like a consolidation following recent advance. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 6,430-6,440, marked by record high. On the other hand, support level is at 6,400, and the next level of support remains at 6,370-6,380, marked by recent fluctuations. The Nasdaq 100 futures contract remains above short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:
Let’s take a look at Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The price reached new record high a month ago, as it extended its uptrend following better-than-expected quarterly earnings release. Since then it fluctuated along the level of $170. The price bounced off support level of the early November daily gap up on Monday. Will it continue higher despite negative technical divergences?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart shows that blue-chip index reached new record high yesterday. We still can see negative technical divergences. The most common divergences are between asset’s price and some indicator based on it (for instance the index and RSI based on the index). In this case, the divergence occurs when price forms a higher high and the indicator forms a lower high. It shows us that even though price reaches new highs, the fuel for the uptrend starts running low. We can see two-month-long potential rising wedge topping pattern:
Concluding, the S&P 500 index was virtually flat on Wednesday, after reaching yet another new record high above 2,670 mark. Will uptrend continue? Or is this some topping pattern before downward correction? We still can see medium-term overbought conditions along with negative technical divergences. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far.
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Bitcoin has replaced gold as the hot anti-establishment medium which has been gaining momentum. In light of India canceling their currency, there is a growing position against government currencies. This is certainly part of the entire shift from a Public to a Private Wave on the Economic Confidence Model. The overall confidence in government has been declining significantly on economic and political levels – i.e. the election of Trump, BREXIT, and Merkel collapsing to 32.5%.
In a purely economic sense, Bitcoin is really the medium of exchange in a barter situation. That is what BARTER was all about. It was some object that was recognized as acceptable among a group of traders so it becomes the medium of exchange. The problem with Bitcoin is that it is limited and therefore does not represent a true currency that many expect to compete against the government when there is not enough to go around for everyday use among the people.
….also from Martin:
SummaryVillage Farms International is a greenhouse operator looking to enter the Canadian medical marijuana industry.
They have the facilities, and partner, to potentially become a major player in the North American market.
The company is well positioned to enter the North American recreational marijuana market should the United States change their position under new leadership.
Let’s get right to it, Village Farms International (OTCQX:VFFIF or TSE:VFF) has the potential to be the low cost producer in the Canadian medical marijuana industry. This investment is based on stages of development, which I plan to explore with readers and let you know, in likely the most transparent way possible, how I plan to “play” this player in this promising industry.
Here is a neat marketing hook: Fly from New York to London for midday meetings. Be home in time to tuck your kids into bed.
To make this possible, Boom Supersonic is building airplanes that will flit across the globe at 1,451 mph. For those of us who are physics-challenged, that is Mach 2.2 … or 2.6 times faster than every other commercial airliner.
It all might seem far-fetched. It’s not. Breakthroughs in aerospace are happening every day. Investors need to begin positioning now.
There is a good reason for the hectic pace of discovery. I call it the New Gilded Age. That is a throwback to a bygone era of invention. Then, entrepreneurs were inspired by electricity and industrialization. They changed the world and built massive fortunes.
Today, something even bigger is happening …
This is the age of the supercomputer and hyperconnectivity. Imagine what is possible when the brightest minds have access to unlimited computing power. Now imagine a continuous stream of data feeding artificial intelligence algorithms.
Already, chemists have used these tools to develop new materials. Biologists have edited genes to slow the aging process and fight deadly diseases. Mechanical engineers have pushed design to new heights.
Really cool new ideas are jumping off the drawing board.
That’s essentially the story of Boom Supersonic. The company says advances in aerodynamic design, material science and super cruise propulsion mean its Mach 2.2 jetliner is poised to become reality.
And there are buyers already waiting in line for it …
Last week, Japan Airlines announced pre-orders for 20 of the new aircraft. It also committed to invest in development, joining Virgin Group as a strategic investor.
Airlines have always been intrigued by speed. Concorde, a British-French supersonic jetliner, began shuttling the rich and famous between New York and London in 1976. However, the aircraft was plagued with mechanical issues. And its military twin turbojet engines were notoriously thirsty, not to mention noisy.
Boom’s concept borrows the familiar delta wing from Concorde. But engineers used computer modeling, data analytics and a new propulsion system to quiet the 55-seat aircraft. Three new General Electric (GE) turbojets will also sip fuel. The planes should be so efficient, the company claims airlines will be able to compete on price with current business class fares.
It’s a bold claim. However, the team has plenty of success conquering big problems in aerospace. Among other projects, the corporate website lists contributions to SpaceX Falcon 9, the F 135 Joint Strike Fighter and autopilot software on the Boeing 787.
The opportunity for investors is the ecosystem. A project of this scope requires a rethinking of air travel.
Related story:
Software Takes Flight at Airlines. How to Book Gains
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