Timing & trends
1. The Fight For Free Speech
by Michael Campbell
Taxpayers pay billions every year subsidizing the University education of approximately 1.9 million mainly middle and upper class students. Which is why the dustup at Laurier University and the Federal Liberals position on Free Speech is so important to note.
2. Six Themes That Will Drive the Next Five Years
Those looking for an optimistic forecast for U.S. equities can turn to Northern Trust. Bob Browne, its chief investment officer, identified six themes that will drive the capital markets over the next five years. Taken together, they translate to 5.9% annual returns for U.S. stocks over that period, which includes 2017.
3. Seeking Value in an Expensive World
The question I’ve been fielding ever since November 8th of last year and to this day is how we are investing around Donald Trump, and the answer has not changed one iota, which is that we are not investing around Trumponomics at all.


I am actually quite surprised with reading many of the public articles and blogs focusing on the US Dollar of late. It seems many are again calling for the end of the world for the US Dollar. But, I have been seeing something quite different than most in the DXY chart.
I remember back in 2011, when the DXY was in the 73 region, and many were also calling for the death to the dollar at that time. But, for those following my work since I began publishing it in 2011, I was looking for a multi-year rally in the DXY, with a target for a 3rd wave in the 103.53 region. And, at the start of 2017, we struck a high of 103.82 to complete that 3rd wave before we began the pullback we have experienced since that time. But, admittedly, I was off by 29 cents in my multi-year call. (smile)
The DXY has been adhering to our Fibonacci Pinball analysis almost perfectly for years. And, our next larger expectation is for the DXY to rally back to the 100-101 region into 2018. The only question with which we have been grappling is if we see one more lower low before we begin that rally back to the 100-101 region or not.
Based upon the structure we have completed over the past week, it strongly suggests that the current decline is only a (b) wave in the first move up off the recent lows within the larger degree corrective rally back towards the 100-101 region.
As you can see from the attached 21-minute DXY chart, we are now moving down into our target region we set for the (b) wave of the larger degree green a-wave of the green (b) wave, as shown on the daily chart. And, as long as the market holds over the 1.382 extension off the high in the 91.70 region, my expectation is that this (b) wave pullback will set up the DXY to rally over the 96 region.
So, that means as long as we hold over the 91.70 region in the DXY, many may wind up quite shocked with the potential rally the DXY seems to be telegraphing it wants to set up over the coming weeks.
Alternatively, if the DXY should strongly break below the 91.70 region, then it certainly opens the door to the market making one more lower low before the next larger degree rally back to the 100-101 region begins in earnest.
See charts illustrating the wave counts on the DXY.
By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Yesterday, we saw the soul of America.
We drove by a house so imposing… so monstrously ugly… so laughably pretentious that we almost drove off the road staring at it.
On a suburban lot, it was as though it had fallen off the delivery truck and rolled into place, with no thought as to its surroundings.
It was a fake mansion!
Yes, dear reader, it is all fake – our money, our economy, our markets, our government… even our mansions.
Bitcoin Bonanza
On Tuesday, we made another 10% gain on our bitcoin “investment”… at a rate of about $4,000 per hour.
That’s more money in one day than we made during our first 10 years of work – combined.
Our coins, formerly worth nothing, are now worth more and more.
At this rate – a 10% rise versus the dollar each day – if you make a $10,000 investment, before Christmas, you will have $100,000 or more. Or less.
Possibly much less…
We toiled not, neither did we spin. We invented not. We earned not. Not a single morning did we get up at the crack of dawn to earn that money… nor a single night did we stay up late studying to make it happen.
Instead, it was as though we had walked through a casino and randomly yanked on one of the one-armed bandits. Ka-ching!
Nor did we learn anything… except that it’s a mad, mad, mad, mad, mad world – which we already knew! And if Civilization author Clive Bell is right, this is the best kind of money. We didn’t distract ourselves from “thinking and feeling.” We have no coal dust under our fingernails… and no hands calloused by years of hard work.
Easy Come, Easy Go
What to make of it? Is bitcoin money fake, too?
Tomorrow, we’ll have a report directly from our in-house expert, who is attending a conference on cryptocurrencies this week. More than 1,700 people paid $1,500 each to attend, representing the “smart money,” including a handful of newly minted millionaires still with adolescent pimples on their faces and bitcoins in their electronic wallets.
Meanwhile, here’s a thought… and a feeling. We invite dear readers to print this out and put it on their refrigerators:
Bitcoin is not an investment. It is not a speculation. It may or may not be a durable form of money; time will tell.
You may make a lot of money in the bitcoin bubble. Or lose it. Either way, don’t take it seriously. You should treat it like a dollar bill on the sidewalk. If you are lucky, you will pick it up before it blows away. If you are unlucky, you will chase it into the busy street and be struck by a crosstown bus.
Easy come, easy go – like an uninvited relative. Neither celebrate its coming… nor shed a tear at its departure.
What good is such money?
Coat on a Stick
Most of the world is so caught up in getting and spending money that it hardly has time to notice the leaves.
And maybe it is better off for it.
A man puts his head down… he keeps his eye on the ball and his shoulder to the wheel… and he’s ready to make money. Or war.
And then, by the time his hair whitens and he retires from making money, it is too late. His sclerotic brain can learn no more new tricks. It has no flexibility… and no time to develop real taste and judgement.
That’s why the “self-made man” may be the least civilized of the species.
He is too busy to think and feel. He is getting rich in his youth. And then, when he is spending… that’s where the disaster of his life becomes apparent.
He has not taken the time to prepare himself. He cannot appreciate style… or wit… or charm… or intimacy.
In retirement, when he can no longer do the only thing he knows how to do – make money – he is nothing more than a coat on a stick rambling around a house far too big for him, a laughingstock to the young… an embarrassment to the old.
Built on Credit
You can judge for yourself: Architectural Digest offers a list of “The Most Beautiful Home for Sale in Every State in America.”
Actually, it is just a list of houses for sale. Those that make the list are the most expensive ones. That is, for the most part, they are the houses of rich, “successful” people who have since gotten a divorce or otherwise moved on and now need to sell their dream homes.
The houses are more like nightmares.
Gaudy, bombastic, clumsy, awkward, hollow, appalling monstrosities. And they are all over America.
A Greek column here… an Italianate arch there… an English gable over the four-car garage… and a Versailles kitchen – they are an amalgam of hodgepodge.
We have been offended by McMansions for years. But the houses of the rich… these are what McMansions aspire to be. They are what you get when you put a hack architect together with a rich man. Neither of them has the sense of style, modesty, proportion, or charm you need to create a beautiful dwelling.
They’ve both been too busy earning and spending money; neither really knows how to build a home with grace or wit. All they can do is build a big, expensive one: a fake mansion.
What you get is a $16 million pile in Arizona and a huge palace for $45 million in Santa Barbara. One rich man builds; another buys. They advertise their wealth and bad taste simultaneously.
And here we see the whole flimflam exposed. These are the houses of the richest and most successful people in the country. They should proudly exhibit the finest that the “One Percent” can buy – the careful aesthetic judgment of the elite… the well-honed vernacular architecture of the world’s greatest empire at the peak of its power.
Instead, they are pathetic imposters. Too large to be livable. Too empty and monumental to be cozy. Too many angles… too many features… too much marble and stone – they are a “hormegeddon” to the domestic housing market. (See our book on the subject.)
They show not only the shallowness of its leading citizens, but also the emptiness of a late, degenerate, bubble-financed empire.
Regards,
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Bill

Here are a few global ETFs with little room to drop in order to avoid daily chart technical breakdowns. That does not mean the end of the larger up trends, but could signal oncoming intermediate corrections if they do fall further and close the week that way (pre-market is red). The question would be, are they leading the fiscally drunk US market and its chronic tweeter in chief/stock pumper?
The Euro hedged European iShares, like the Euro STOXX 50 which it mimics, is in a bear flag. The biggest volume days have been red as this flag has ground upward. Not a short-term bullish look for Europe. What it does have going for it is that the SMAs 50 & 200 are both sloping upward. Even a hit of the 200 is within the context of the up trend.
China 50 has been an absolute robot in its orderly up trend. The pullbacks have been to the SMA 50 and today, close on the heels of the last one a hard drop to the SMA 50 after a silly gap up is in play. This is a suspect for no other reason than that gap up looks like a classic bull trap. Speaking of which, what about the US Dow & SPX yesterday, eh Bueller? Anyway, it’s a long way down to the firmly up trending SMA 200 if FXI were to lose the 45 area.
EMs? See above.
Sure, the US is drunk on tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. That’s market friendly… whee! But it is unlikely that the richly valued US market would pull a flying pig routine in the face of a global pullback. So it may worthwhile to watch Europe and two recent global leaders, China (large caps) and EM for indications.
The slow moving big picture plan per yesterday’s post would not be affected (other than the short-term state of it’s 10yr/30yr yield view if risk goes off and bonds get bid) unless a pullback, if it comes, were to start breaking major markers, like the daily SMA 200 and lateral support levels (which we’d manage as needed). This post is not predicting a correction, but it’s giving us one element to watch in support of a case for one. Let’s see how the week ends for global stocks.
NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com
