Timing & trends

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

Okay, so the theme is that on the macro 3 events may come together to signal a big climax, leading to change.

3amigos4

Those Amigos are…

    1. Stocks complete their rise vs. gold.
    2. 10yr & 30yr yields hit upside targets (and limitation points) around 2.9% & 3.3%, respectively.
    3. The yield curve finishes flattening (at least) and turns to steepening (at most).

We use the big picture graphic (a bit dated now) for cartoonish illustration purposes. This shows global and US stocks retracing the former bear market vs. gold, the 30yr yield Continuum™ and the yield curve.

3 amigos

Today, let’s take a daily view of stocks vs. gold and update the big pictures of the others.

SPY vs. GLD is taking the next step higher. Referring to the big picture graphic above, this could be the final and terminal launch to the projected resistance area. Warning to all you real time thinkers: the process could move slower than your brain waves. Have patience.

The next Amigo is long-term bond yields. The 10yr held the 50 and 200 day moving averages.

The 30yr is more suspect, but the pattern’s symmetry is still in play.

Here’s the Continuum™, AKA the 30yr bond yield and its 100 month exponential moving average limiter. It continues to flash a bull flag and the pattern above would measure to the limiter around 3.3% if it becomes active.

Here is the daily view of the yield curve. It is burrowing downward, chronically flattening but not yet near inverted.

Here’s the bigger picture view complete with my editorial markups about the bond/yield curve manipulation scheme secretary Mnuchin is cooking up in a ‘me too!’ play to the brilliantly evil Operation Twist that was inflicted upon free markets by the Bernanke Fed in 2011. Here is the post from November 20 in which we highlighted the details of the scheme.

Bottom Line

The 3 Amigos of macro change will ride until they hit the wall known as the limitations of a cooked up macro market backdrop. If – and it’s of course still a question – stocks retrace vs. gold, yields rise and the yield curve flattens toward logical limit points, and these limits come about in confluence, it could be the biggest market signal (of drastic changes) many of us have received in our lifetimes. And I don’t see that as hyperbole.

In the case of yields, the message could be doubly bad because if the limiters fail and yields break the secular bear (bond bull) a debt addled economy would eventually get croaked under inflationary and yield pressures. If yields are limited and turn back down with the other two Amigos, the message would be that deflationary pressure is building because a rising gold/stock ratio indicates risk ‘off’ and liquidity issues and a rising yield curve can have it both ways, under inflationary or deflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, party on Garth because it’s really bullish out there. But for crying out loud, go easy on the punch.

[edit] You may recall my previous metaphorical exercise, the 2 Horsemen, which would be the Gold/Silver ratio and US dollar, riding together to bring an end to market liquidity. They could yet ride together later, after the dollar finishes its newly reinstated bear phase. But the one to keep an eye on is the 1st Horseman, the gold/Silver ratio. We’ll keep him at the ready for the time when the limits shown above are reached. This Horseman rode hard in Q4 2008 and if the coming change is not inflationary, as would be indicated by silver leading gold, he could join the above three. My well honed math skills tell me that makes 4 Horsemen and they wouldn’t be nearly as enjoyable as the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos.

[edit 2] Lest the reader think it’s a Doom & Gloom piece, please understand that it’s a bullish piece heading one day into a wall of limitations and hence, change… and very likely gloom. But I ask readers not to impose their wants, desires (hey look, who doesn’t desire a meltdown of the construct Bernanke and his monetary cohorts created and Trump and his fiscal cohorts seek to amplify and sustain?) and bias on this. The risk ‘on’ markets are bullish and I for one am aligned that way (as sensibly as I can). Later, when indicators tell us the time is right, something is going to change and that change, as indicated by all the Amigos and Horsemen above, will either be inflationary intensification or deflationary unwind of man-made excesses now interwoven in every corner of the financial markets.

NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com

The Real Reason Why Amazon is Packaging Up Profits

It’s that time of the year again. Every holiday shopping season, the “retail apocalypse” discussion moves front and center.

In reality, it’s not so much an apocalypse as it is a rethinking of the way we shop. Online is definitely growing. Physical storefronts are hit-and-miss.

Forget all that. I want you to think about packaging.

If you do, you will see a gigantic opportunity that most other investors are missing.

Recently, Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon (AMZN) sat down for a wide-ranging interviewwith Michael Beckerman, the CEO of the Internet Association. That’s a trade group that bills itself as the “unified voice of the internet economy.”

In this interview, Bezos shared the principles behind how Amazon dominates its markets. These principles have organically inspired many of the company’s winning products, services and programs.

Bezos presented highlights of these success stories. And one of these achievements attracted my attention as an investor. But first, here’s how Amazon fosters excellence.

 

  • Become obsessed with customers. Not products. Not technology. Not your competitors. Amazon always puts customers first. The company strives to know its customers so well that it can invent what they want before they even know they want it.
  • Focus on long-term planning. Too many companies focus on the bottom line from year-to-year or quarter-to-quarter. At Amazon, they plan five to seven years ahead.
  • Identify your big ideas. This will help your company focus on what’s important. You should only have two or three big ideas. But they should reflect values that will hold up for 10 to 20 years. Amazon has three big ideas: low prices, fast delivery and vast selection.
  • Accept failure as a path to success. You can’t invent or pioneer without making experiments, says Bezos. And by their nature, experiments fail more often than they succeed.

 

I believe investors should pay close attention to one of Amazon’s experiments … because it offers a big key to the company’s success.

Consider this: You can’t shop anywhere without confronting clear plastic, clamshell packages. They’re used by most toy- and consumer electronics-makers. And consumers hate them. During the interview, Bezos described them as indestructible and frustrating.  He has a point.

Merchants turned to clamshells in the 1980s to combat shoplifting.  Without a sharp knife, it’s almost impossible to free the product.  And the packaging is too bulky to hide under clothing.

Plus, there are other advantages. Clamshell packages look good on display. Customers can see the entire product through the clear plastic.

The downfall is that clamshells are very expensive, bulky to ship and hard to recycle.  And yes, consumers hate them.

They’re also dangerous.

In 2006, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission estimated that clamshell packages led to 6,000 emergency-room visits.

You see, it’s impossible for customers to open clamshells with their bare hands. So, they use dangerous tools like scissors, knives, box cutters, razor blades and combat knives.

Screen Shot 2017-11-30 at 7.35.34 AMAnd, bad things happen when frustrated people hack and slash at the plastic packages. The list of injuries ranged from severe cuts to severed tendons and injured eyes.

Bezos says Amazon.com has been working on a program called Frustration Free Packaging for the past 10 years.  To put that in perspective, the only older programs are Prime, its membership service, and Amazon Web Services, the web-hosting behemoth.

For Amazon, packaging is a very big deal.

The reasons should be obvious.  Shoplifting and product displays don’t matter to the online giant.  Its products get housed in giant warehouses all over the world. Pieces get scanned and counted.

That bulky clamshell packaging hurts Amazon in two important ways.  It costs more to get products because there are fewer pieces per wholesale crate. And it requires larger boxes to send items to retail customers.

Amazon has made progress by working with vendors to create internet-friendly packaging. Easy to open. Easy to dispose of. Today 80,000 products are available under FFP. And in the past year alone, Amazon has saved 55 tons of waste.

This is an important trend in the packaging industry. As retail moves more online, there is a huge economic incentive to change the way products are packaged. Investors need to understand this trend, because a new ecosystem is evolving. Winners are being created right now.

One of the companies I have been watching for my members was founded in 1940. And, it has become one of the leading corrugated packaging companies in the world.

It makes simple, brown cardboard boxes that are both easy to open and just the right size for online shipping.  Since 2010, shareholders have seen the stock rise 398%.

And, by all accounts, the best is yet to come.

In 2016 it shipped 6.7 billion metric meters of corrugated cardboard, and 2.4 million tons of paper packaging.  It currently operates in 30 countries, and it is continuing to expand its footprint to meet robust demand for simplified online packaging.

Margins are expanding. Cash flow is strong.

And there are other winners. One company makes the robotic machines used to make box production more efficient.  Another makes sensors. Another makes software.

This is a rapidly growing sector that very few investors even know exist. Packaging is the new black. And just like that universally flattering color, profits look good on everyone — especially you. Here’s how to get in on that trend.

Best wishes,

Jon Markman

Bubble Anatomy 101

This video explains why bubbles behave as they do and details the common mistakes investors make in trading bubbles.

vitt

 

Larger Chart

This has the potential to be a top, or it could just intensify the bubble mentality even more, making it even that much more likely that investors get caught when the top arrives. The more times the market recovers the more convinced traders become that there is no risk thus causing them to hold too long and get trapped when the final top does occur.

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

High-End Real Estate Starting to Enter Crash Mode

Druckenmiller-Stanley-estate

The high-end market in Connecticut is starting to decline. The hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller bought his estate in 2004 for $23 million. He had it on the market for $31.5 million. The best offer he got was $25 million. He took the money and ran. Smart move! With a real estate tax of about $154,000 annually, looks like a break-even deal after 13 years.


The high-end real estate boom is now turning sour. We are looking at property values declining in London, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, New York, and even Miami. The shift will now turn toward MOVABLE assets as capital departs from the fixed asset class.

….also from Martin:

Top 30 Risky Banks – Does it Really Matter?

The Royal Bank of Canada (RPC) has been added to the list of the top 30 banks posing the greatest risk.

Here Are Two Important Charts

KWN-Adams-I-11292017

With some wild action in key markets, what Can Stop Stocks?

The S&P 500 has eclipsed several resistance levels over the last few years, and it is not showing signs of slowing down…

All-time record commercial short positions in crude oil…

……..view Charts and analysis HERE

….also from KingWorld:

BITCOIN WARNING: “If we let things continue, I feel that it will lead to some serious distorted or pathological phenomenon.”