Energy & Commodities

Forget Oil Prices, Oil Majors Are A Buy

Oil stocks have been performing dismally this year, and oil prices have failed to sustain a rally, so why are these stocks still attractive? Low valuations and high dividend yields, say analysts. 

Supermajor oil companies are living a new reality that is based on new profits in a forever-low oil price environment—and globally, analysts say, the oil sector is a great investment.

Value has returned, because international oil giants have adapted.

The initial enthusiasm over OPEC’s production cut deal died out rather unceremoniously, and oil prices only enjoyed a brief rally, hammered down continually by rising U.S. supply and slower-than-expected drawdowns on inventory.

Since the beginning of the year, the oil stocks have underperformed the broader market indices both in the U.S. and in Europe.

As of the early morning on August 18, the Stoxx Europe 600 Oil & Gas index—which includes Europe’s majors Shell, BP, Total, Statoil, and Eni, among others–was down 11.94 percent year to date.

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At the same time, the Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 4.27 percent year to date.

It’s all rather bleak. Until you look at dividend yields and valuations.

Take the oil sector in Europe, for example. It has the highest dividend yield, so there’s value in investing, according to two analysts who spoke to CNBC’s Squawk Box this week.

In the European market, the oil sector has a high dividend yield of about 6 percent—the highest there is—which adds up to real value, says Nick Nelson, head of global and European equity strategy at UBS.

According to Nelson, oil prices could move up toward US$60 by the end of the year, due to underinvestment in projects in 2015 and 2016, which could lead to a crunch in supplies in 2019 and 2020.

The looming shortfall in supplies in just a few years is not a new prediction.

In March this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that unless the industry approves fresh investments in new projects, global oil supply may be struggling to catch up with demand after 2020, which could result in a sharp jump in oil prices. 

For the nearest term by the end of this year, another expert, Beat Wittmann, a partner at Porta Advisors, told CNBC that he saw the range for oil prices somewhere at between US$45 and US$60.

Related: Russia Claims To Have Invented Alternative To Fracking

The upper end of that projection–oil prices at US$60–is below most of the current analyst forecasts, with expectations for the WTI price predominantly in the low US$50s, or below.

Like Nelson, Wittmann also believes that there’s “great value in supermajor oil companies.”

Supermajors have slashed costs and capex, and “they’ve digested and readjusted balance sheets and quite frankly that investment case does not so much depend on if the oil price is at $50 or $60,” Wittmann argues.

The oil sector globally is an attractive play for investors right now, according to the expert.

Supermajors have indeed realigned plans and investments to the new normal in oil–around US$50—half the oil price they were accustomed to in the 2014 pre-crash dizzy spending days.

Now Shell is getting ready for ‘lower forever’ oil prices, its chief executive Ben van Beurden said at the Q2 results release last month/

BP is also setting its strategies for the lower-for-longer oil reality.

“BP is continuing to plan for a lower oil price world,” chief executive Bob Dudley said earlier this month, adding that “I’m not expecting big shifts in prices anytime soon and a price of $50 a barrel looks like the right number to plan on for the rest of the decade.”

According to Goldman Sachs, Big Oil is now repositioning itself for better profitability and cash generation in the oil-at-US$50 world than they were in the US$100-oil price environment, due to simplification, standardization, and deflation.

Related: Natural Gas Prices Poised To Rise As Exports Boom

In the second quarter this year, Europe’s Big Oil generated cash capable of covering 91 percent of the companies’ combined outlays on dividends and capital expenses, Goldman Sachs said.

Oil stocks have suffered alongside oil bulls that had bet on significantly higher oil prices, but, according to the experts who spoke to CNBC, now may be a good time to invest in the energy sector.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

 

 

New Hindenburg Alert

A new Hindenburg signal was generated on August 16th. This follows the signal in May and its confirmation in June. That combination resulted in a minor correction to the 50-day moving average in the S&P.

The current signal comes on the heels of what was a very close call on August 8th when only one ingredient was missing from the strict rules. If the S&P can’t hold at the 50-day ema then we should be prepared for a deeper break to the 150-day average (2388).

See the June 28th report for further background information in the Hindenburg Omen.

Click Image For Larger Version 

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Opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.

Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.

BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

EMAIL bhoye.institutionaladvisors@telus.net WEBSITE www.institutionaladvisors.com 

Aug 22, 2017

  1. After rallying almost $100 an ounce from the July lows of about $1210 (basis December futures), gold is consolidating its gains.
  2. Fundamentally, there isn’t much immediate time frame news from either the fear trade or the love trade. That’s the root cause of this sideways price action, and its healthy.
  3. To get some technical perspective on the consolidation, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this short term gold chart.
  4. A small head and shoulders top pattern has appeared, and it suggests more consolidation will occur before the upside action resumes. This scenario would see gold move down towards $1272, and then rally towards $1330.
  5. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. On this chart, a slightly bigger head and shoulders pattern is apparent. It suggests a deeper correction to about $1250 may occur.
  6. I’ve outlined the $1300 – $1330 price zone as a good place to book some light profits on positions bought into my $1220 – $1200 buy zone. From here, investors should be viewing the $1275 – $1245 price zone as a fresh buy zone. 
  7. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this important dollar versus yen chart. 
  8. The world’s biggest liquidity movers are major bank FOREX departments, and they tend to aggressively buy the dollar versus the yen when global risk is declining.
  9. When global risk rises, they will aggressively sell the dollar against the yen.
  10. Both gold and the yen are viewed by these liquidity flow monsters as the world’s most important safe havens. The 108 dollar versus yen price is a very similar “line in the sand” to the $1300 line in the sand for gold.
  11. The dollar is consolidating its recent decline in the 108 area as gold consolidates in the $1300 zone. Fundamentals make charts, and earth shaking news in September and October could see the dollar tumble under 108 and gold blast through $1300. 
  12. The debt ceiling (which I call a floor) debate is one event that could create a major panic in risk-on markets in this critical September-October time frame.
  13. That fear trade rubber is going to meet the road just as Indian dealers begin buying gold aggressively for Diwali. They appear to be in pause mode now, which is logical since they don’t tend to chase the price after it has rallied almost $100 an ounce.
  14. As I’ve mentioned, all gold bug eyes need to be focused on the $1275 – $1245 buy zone. Perhaps even more importantly, all gold bug hands need to be ready to press the buy button for their favourite gold stocks if gold moves into that key buy zone.
  15. On that note, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. The $26 area for GDX corresponds with $1300 for gold. Gold has traded at the $1300 area numerous times since February, but GDX rallies have not taken it to $26.
  16. I understand that most gold bugs are heavily invested in gold stocks. The inability of these stocks to consistently outperform bullion is frustrating, but there is light in that tunnel.
  17. To begin to view the light, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this long term gold chart. Bull markets have rising volume and bear markets have rising volume. Corrective action, up or down, is accompanied by falling volume.
  18. Gold has been in a bull cycle since 2002. Volume has risen on major price advances, and dwindled on declines.
  19. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold stocks were in a bear cycle against gold from 1995 – 2016. 
  20. That happened because the Fed lowered rates to make small inexperienced investors move their money out of bank accounts and into risky investments focused on capital gain.
  21. The 1995 – 2016 bear market in gold stocks against gold is over. Just as gold based against the dollar in the 1999 – 2001 period before blasting higher on big volume, gold stocks are doing the same thing against gold now. 
  22. Quantitative tightening in America, Japan, and Europe is coming. Higher rates are in play. This is going to (slowly at first) move money out of global stock markets and government bonds and into the fractional reserve banking system. That will reverse the money velocity bear cycle that corresponded with the gold stocks bear market. 
  23. It’s a steady process, but it requires investors to be realistic about the time required to create a money velocity bull market… and thus a gold stocks bull market against gold. The bottom line is this:
  24. Good gold stock times are not quite here, but they are near!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Aug 22, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com

Lightening-Fast COT Reversal: Now Fairly Bearish For Gold And Silver

That didn’t take long at all. Just a few weeks after the Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports for gold and silver turned positive – setting off a nice rally in both metals’ prices – this indicator has flipped back to strongly negative. 

In gold especially, speculators (always wrong at big turning points) have loaded up on long futures contracts while closing out their short positions. The commercials (always right at big turning points) have done the opposite, closing out long positions and going aggressively short.

In the week ended August 15, the gold speculators and commercials got about 10% more long and short, respectively. That’s a big one-week move, and brings the imbalance between good and bad positions to nearly 3-to-1 bearish. The trends in silver, while not as extreme, still point in a bearish direction.

Gold-COT-Aug-17

 Here’s the action presented graphically, with the silver lines on the top half of the chart representing speculator long positions and the purple bars below indicating commercial shorts. Note the leisurely pace of previous months, and contrast it with the v-shaped move that just took place. Not sure what that means, other than that speculators hoping to ride a longer upswing might be disappointed. 


It’s important once again to note that the COT report is not a day-trading tool. Historically it’s been a pretty good indicator of the general trend over the following six or so months. But it has nothing to say about tomorrow or the day after. So it’s irrelevant for stackers and other long-term accumulators. But it is useful for someone who has their eye on a given gold/silver mining stock and is looking for a good entry point – which in this case might be a few months in the future. 

Another point that bears repeating is the temporary nature of this indicator. Eventually, fundamentals in the form of surging demand for physical precious metals will swamp the paper market. Gold and silver will soar regardless of which futures players are long or short.

Some Big Wall Street Players Are Starting to Sweat a Crash

Here’s what to do if they’re right…

wall-street-signWhen it comes to the stock market, everything’s always all good… until it isn’t.

And it’s been all good: U.S. stocks have been rallying for nine years, making successive all-time highs, with only sporadic bouts of profit-taking by the Nervous Nellies along the way.

But now, some huge investors – marquee names – are getting nervous.

And they’re letting people know about it, too…

Between them, these giants are pushing around close to $1.7 trillion in capital – more than enough for them to be able to make waves wherever they go.

I’m going to show you what to do if these whales are right; they just might be…

Meet the (Very Wealthy and Powerful) Bears

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, the world’s largest hedge fund with more than $150 billion under management, believes the “magnitude” of the next downturn will be epic. “We fear that whatever the magnitude of the downturn that eventually comes, whenever it eventually comes, it will likely produce much greater social and political conflict than currently exists,” he recently said.

Former “Bond King” Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO LLC and now legendary portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, says, we’re at the highest risk levels since 2008 because “investors are paying a high price for the chances they’re taking.”

Naturally, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital Jeff Gundlach – the new “Bond King” – advises “moving toward the exits.” Gundlach’s reducing his positions in junk bonds, emerging-market debt, and lower-quality investments, because he believes investor sentiment will turn negative. “If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at lower prices,” he told Bloomberg.

Wall Street icon Carl Icahn, who regularly loads up on stocks and hits it out of the park, warns he isn’t seeing opportunities given how much stock prices have run up. “I really think now, I look at this market and you just say, ‘look at some of these values,’ and you have to wonder,” he lamented in a CNBC interview in June.

Oaktree Capital founder Howard Marks has been talking about “too-bullish territory.” The billionaire warns “aggressive investors are ‘engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals, and creating risky market conditions.’”

Legendary hedge fund guru George Soros, who in 1992 “broke the Bank of England” and pocketed more than $1 billion doing it, recently sold stocks and bought gold… after a near 10-year hiatus. Just to give you an idea, the last time Soros made a big play was in 2007, when he placed bearish trades on housing in the run-up to the meltdown.

Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper warns investors to stockpile some cash and says he’s “on guard.”

“Everything is expensive and we are late in the business cycle,”Sebastien Page, head of asset allocation at T. Rowe Price, said in an interview with Bloomberg. “That introduces fragility for risk assets, and there isn’t much buffer.”

So, that’s a lot of negativity. But don’t let it ruin your day. Do this instead…

How to Stay Invested and Sleep at Night

Individual investors would be foolish to not heed warnings from so many successful investors.

But that doesn’t mean sell everything. In fact, no one’s saying that, and that’s not a good idea.

bear-graph-business-manSure, the market is in nosebleed territory, but it has been for a long time, and it still manages to keep going higher.

If it keeps going higher, the last place investors would want to be is on the sidelines.

Too many would-be investors are on the sidelines and have been there since the market started rallying back in 2009, perpetually afraid the rising market is due for a big correction.

So, is the next “Big One” coming? It might be. But, then again, it may only lookscary up here.

Here’s what you want to do about it… and the way I’d play it: have sell orders ready and waiting.

That means putting down “sell-stop” orders on your positions.

If outright selling overtakes the market, it could be too late to take good profits you’re sitting on.

When markets fall they can do so hard and fast, leaving invested individuals with nothing more than hope that their bleeding positions will find a bottom and bounce back into profitability.

I don’t play the game that way.

always use stop-loss orders to exit my positions with plenty of profits. I want to sell my shares if they drop to a level I’m uncomfortable with.

That level is different for every stock.

I use two metrics to determine where to place my stops.

First, I look at the stock’s chart. I look for “support” below where the stock’s trading currently.

stock-exchange-boardSupport is a price level where the stock saw a lot of buying. It could be a level where the stock came down to in the past before bouncing back up. Or, it could be a level where there was a lot of sideways movement in the stock before it took off higher. Those levels are indicative of past buying – that’s why they’re called “support levels.”

If the stock breaks below support, you have to figure other investors, who bought the stock at a lower price and saw it break through a resistance level, are also watching that happen.

At the same time, you have to reckon other investors might’ve bought at that support level, or even higher, and are now watching the stock come down.

Either way, they could be freaking out and thinking hard about an exit if it can’t hold support.

In that way, support levels are psychological levels for investors – and especially for traders.

I don’t put my stop orders down right at support levels. Instead, I put them down about 2% to 5% (not percentage points) below where I see support. That’s because aggressive traders often try and push stocks down through support levels so stop-loss orders resting there get triggered. Guess who’s buying your shares from you then? Those big aggressive traders, that’s who. I know, because I used to trade that way in my hedge funds, and believe me, it is a very lucrative game to play.

But, if there’s something wrong with my stock or with the market that breaks support by 2% to 5%, I want out.

The other consideration you have to have when using a stop-loss order is to let the stock move.

If you put a stop-loss order down too close to where the stock is trading, it will probably get hit and you’ll sell your stock, and all too often you’ll be left to watch it rocket higher without you.

I look at the stock’s range of motion over a month. I want to know what kinds of swings up and down it makes. Whatever that range is (say, a 5% range or a 10% range), I’ll place my stop just outside that range, maybe 6% or 11% below where the stock’s trading.

For me, if my stock’s going up and up, and the obvious support is getting further and further away (meaning it’s way below where the stock is now), I’ll keep raising my stop, so I get out if the stock breaks below the range I’ve given it to bounce in.

always raise my stops after a good up-move.

First and foremost, I look for a new support level; that’s where I prefer to have my stops, just below there. If the stock’s been on a tear, and there’s no real support below where the stock’s come from, I’ll raise my stop to just below the outside range I’ve seen the stock bounce around in.

In other words, if the stock’s going pretty much straight up and isn’t bouncing much, I’ll have a tighter stop because there isn’t much bouncing and not much of a range to measure. That’s okay, because a stock that goes up like that can come down in a hurry too, and I want to capture as much profit as I can.

Using stops is about saving money on the downside and ringing the cash register on the way up.

If your stock has a big move up and you get stopped out with a big profit, that doesn’t mean you can’t buy back into the stock.

No sweat. I do that all the time.

Once you ring the register, you’ve then got fresh capital to apply. You can apply it back into the stock you just got stopped out of if you feel the stock’s going higher. So what if you have to pay up a little more? The stock’s rising, it’s doing what you want it to do.

Just like everyone, I listen to what big investors throwing around billions of dollars are saying and doing. In the end, I do my own thing. But, it would be foolish not to understand what they’re thinking, what they’re investing in or getting out of. It’s information. Use it.

And with stop-loss orders, you can be in the game and sleep at night without worrying if the sky falls on the market tomorrow, or next year, or never.

Shah Gilani is the editor of Zenith Trading Circle. Just click here to check it out