Timing & trends

Here Comes Big Marijuana!

In last week’s Money and Markets article, I told you about how one of America’s biggest sin stock industries is positioning itself to profit from the expected legalization of marijuana at the federal level in the U.S.

In that article, I discussed how Big Tobacco executives have been exploring the opportunities of legal marijuana since the 1970s.

All this came to light after researchers combed through more than 80,000 top-secret documents, which had been turned over to the public following the 1998 national tobacco settlement.

Meeting behind closed doors, tobacco execs from companies, like Philip Morris, considered marketing gimmicks like combining weed with menthol cigarettes.

Yes, even in those early days, tobacco company bosses knew the potential gold mine that marijuana could be if it became legal across the U.S.

Indeed, here’s how the legal marijuana business in the U.S. has grown:

According to reputable market research, the legal marijuana industry in the U.S. was a $3.4 billion business in 2015. In 2016, the market doubled to $7.1 billion.

And two major studies show that the legal marijuana business in the U.S. will explode to $40 billion over the next five years … and possibly top $50 billion over the next decade.

Now, take a look at the chart below. There, you’ll see even more reasons why Big Tobacco is so interested in the marijuana business:


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That’s right, if the estimated yearly demand for marijuana is in the right ballpark, then more Americans crave cannabis than cabernet or candy bars.

This puts the potential market for recreational marijuana in the Big Three of America’s vices … trailing only cigarettes and beer.

And in this next chart, you’ll see why Big Tobacco is setting itself up to make a pile of gold in marijuana profits.



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It’s because cigarette makers have been grappling with declining sales volumes for more than a decade.

And tobacco companies see themselves as perfectly positioned to profit if the Feds legalize marijuana for the entire U.S.

They have extensive financial resources, marketing muscle, political clout and the product-design technology to optimize the puff-by-puff delivery of THC (marijuana’s active ingredient).

You may not know this, but despite falling demand and stiff government oversight, tobacco has been one of the top-performing industry groups in the S&P 500 Index since the 1990s.

Yes, Big Tobacco boasts a well-documented track record of generating enormous profits under intense scrutiny. So it’s no surprise that the industry has its eyes on the whole marijuana pie, rather than just a piece.

Big Tobacco has its eyes on the whole marijuana pie.

Here’s what I mean …

Tobacco companies already have broad expertise in the distribution of their own controlled substance. That’s why they’re making a case to state regulators that they could apply this same expertise to the marijuana market — if only given the chance.

Indeed, they already have a wholesale network to distribute marijuana while safeguarding the system against bootleggers. Funneling marijuana sales through the same distribution network could help cut down on illegal sellers who obtain marijuana through illicit channels.

Here’s how their logic goes:

After federal legalization, state governments will need to regulate the marijuana industry in a way that’s similar to the tobacco business.

Distributors would act as middlemen between the producers and the customers. After all, they’ve already got the trucks, routes, employees, and established systems.

For state officials, their argument is sound:

Currently, tobacco wholesalers are accountable for the tracking, delivery, and taxing of all tobacco products. This means that for each carton of cigarettes distributed in each state, these wholesalers get a piece of the profits.

As the tobacco market fades and as marijuana becomes mainstream across the U.S., tobacco distributors want to apply the same tiered, top-down system.

That way, these same wholesalers will profit from distributing marijuana, which could breathe some new life into an industry that’s struggling for growth.

In many ways, the marijuana market of today resembles the tobacco market before it matured — before cigarettes were mass produced and sold through vast distribution networks.

With Big Tobacco eyeing the possible treasure trove in marijuana, you should consider investing a portion of your portfolio in weed too, if your risk profile permits it.

But with more than 200 marijuana stocks currently available on the publicly traded markets, you’ll need to roll up your sleeves and do your homework. Be highly selective — and here’s this week’s big tip — look for companies that have expertise in or that are focused on multi-state distribution.

Best wishes,

Bill Hall

Biotech Will Lift The S&P 500 To 2,550

Summary

Biotech can serve as a proxy for the market risk appetite.

The Biotech group recently broke out.

The sector offers investors the potential for growth coupled with multiple expansion.

It wasn’t even a month ago that we wrote that the Biotech sector was on the verge of breaking out and was set up to follow the Tech sector higher. It was only June 5, in case you forgot. Now we are going to tell you why the sector is likely to continue to move higher and how this will help the S&P 500 (SPY) get to our 2,550 target.

Since June 5, the sector has been on a tear and has passed Tech’s 2017 year to date performance.

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….continue for more charts, analysis and individual stocks HERE

…also from Seeking Alpha”

2017 Mid-Year Stock Market Outlook

Canada Real Estate Bubble

I’ve been seeing a lot in the news lately about Canadian and Australian real estate prices. Here’s just a sampling:

New Brunswick real estate offers a lesson on peak housing prices

Condo flipping on the rise as Vancouver market heats up

Face it Canada – you’re a real estate addict and no one wants a cure

Canada real estate industry welcomes Buffett to the neighborhood

Canada’s red hot real estate heats up apartment market to heights not seen in 30 years

Canada is on the ‘A-list’ for commercial real estate investors, in a world of uncertainty

Most of what we’re hearing is that there’s little to worry about with our neighbor’s real estate prices shooting to the moon.

Well, as I told 5 Day Forecast readers yesterday, there IS something to worry about. Something BIG.

Today, I’ll share with you what I told Boom & Bust subscribers yesterday…

Between early 2006 and late 2012, real estate in the U.S. took a whipping worse than what the Great Depression dished out. It lost 34% compared to the 26% it shed back in the early 1930s.

But property prices in Canada and Australia hardly paused, and then they continued their march higher.

Canadian home prices are now 84% higher than in the U.S.!

Despite Canadian’s slightly lower incomes!!

And the Aussies’ are even higher. Home prices in Australia are now 107% higher than those in the U.S.!

It’s terrifying. Stephen King should turn it into one of his horror stories. It’d be a best-seller.

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….continue reading HERE

Yes, Bitcoin Is A Bubble And It’s About To Burst

video wucThe popularity of trading Bitcoin has now reached the point where none other than the New York Times sees fit to declare cryptocurrencies, or more specifically initial coin offerings, “The Easiest Path To Riches On The Web.” Not to be left out, CNBC this week published a brief tutorial on trading crypto with your smartphone and MarketWatch featured a teenage bitcoin millionaire who now forecasts a $1 million price target.

These are exactly the sort of headlines and stories that characterize a speculative mania otherwise known as a “bubble.” For anyone who was around during the dotcom mania this should quickly bring back memories of all the folks who flocked to day-trading tech stocks. But to really understand the mania you need to look no further than the primary argument in buying crypto in the first place. Investors here claim the value comes from the limited supply. The trouble is there is an unlimited number of types of coins that can be created!

….continue reading HERE

“Fundamentals” in a Financial Mania

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Perspective

Within context, Blankfein’s comments were upbeat on the economy, not pointing out the risk. 

Computer programs designed by quants are telling quants to be fully invested.

The yield curve in China is extending the inversion trend to a record. Reversal will signal speculation has exhausted itself.

The irony with the Argentina “100s” is the observation that there has been no twenty- year span in the country’s history when it did not default.

*****

Stock Markets

The key technical requirement is to have the “Hindenburg” signal of June 6th confirmed by another such signal within 36 days. This registered yesterday.

The rule on this one, is that each such signal is not necessarily followed by a collapse of speculation, but there has been no such collapse without a confirmed Hindenburg. The last “confirmed” occurred in July 2015. Prior to that it was in October and June 2007, a fateful year.

Of course, it is essential that market forces have become highly speculative. This, we have been noting.

The probability of a cyclical stock market peak being completed at around June was reviewed in our Checklist for a Top of June 6th. This noted that the market was up when it should be and that speculation was measurably evident.

Traditional investors use fundamentals of sound corporate management and sound central banking. The latter is a backup that is supposed to reduce risk. In the past, serious cyclical contractions have overwhelmed even the best of corporate management as well as prudent central bankers.

This time around, central bankers have become belligerently reckless, which has introduced additional risk, without precedent. The key thing is that orthodoxy considers that there is no risk.

Our approach has been to review the history of financial markets and the “fundamentals” of excessive speculation become very evident. Such excesses are measurable. This approach worked very well for us in 2007 and in 2008. 1

Another “fundamental” of a financial mania has been the reversal in credit markets from party to contraction. The party mode has driven the China yield curve to inverted. In the US, flattening is moving quickly. On data back to the 1850s, the curve need not invert to precede a contraction. All it needs to do is reverse.

Pivot’s point is to examine market forces for the probability of cyclical change. Rather than simple extrapolation, this involves three stages. In this case, the first is the “Up”, which earlier in the year we noted as to “around June”. This, at the risk of being repetitive, requires “ending action” which is the second stage. Stage three is the formal reversal.

Quite likely, the confirmed Hindenburg is an important part of Stage Two.

A change in credit markets would also be part of Stage Two. 

 

Link to June 23, 2017 Bob Hoye interview “Are Low Grade Bonds Risky HERE

BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS

E-MAIL bhoye.institutionaladvisors@telus.net

WEBSITE: www.institutionaladvisors.com