Timing & trends

Silver and NASDAQ Strength Will Reverse

Bubbles come and go.

Silver and gold – 1980

Japanese Nikkei – 1990

NASDAQ – 2000

Mortgages and Real Estate – 2006

Bonds, Debt, Stocks, Real Estate – 2017

Examine the following graph of monthly data for 32 years of the NASDAQ 100 Index and Silver.

word-image

We saw the NASDAQ bubble in 1999-2000, a rapid rise for silver in 2010 – 2011 and a large rise in the NASDAQ 100 during 2009 – 2017.

Prices for both markets have often risen too far and too fast, and then corrected or crashed. The NASDAQ dropped more than 80% from 2000 to 2002. Silver dropped about 70% from 2011 to late 2015.

The NASDAQ 100 is likely to drop by a large percentage following its current run-up. Stay tuned – no correction yet.

Prices for stocks and silver rise, primarily because of currency devaluations. The two markets often offset each other, which suggests we should look at their sum. Examine 32 years of the NASDAQ 100 plus 175 times silver prices, which gives both markets roughly equal weight.

 

Over thirty years prices have risen exponentially as the dollar has purchased progressively less. Conclusion: Prices rise exponentially and probably will continue to rise as long as governments increase debt and central banks devalue their currencies.

Is the NASDAQ 100 high and is silver low?

Examine the ratio of 175 times the silver price divided by the NASDAQ 100. When the ratio is high – as in 2011 – silver is relatively high. When the ratio is low – as in 2017 – silver is undervalued compared to the NASDAQ 100 Index.

How long will the ratio stay this low? Probably not much longer …

When the NASDAQ 100 top will occur is important if you are riding the NASDAQ bull market. Now is a time for caution!

How much longer silver prices will stay low is important if you are stacking silver, as I hope you are. Take advantage of these low prices!

REVIEW – and then do your own due diligence:

  • Prices for silver and the NASDAQ 100 rise exponentially as unbacked paper currencies are systematically devalued.
  • Expect much higher silver prices because the silver to NASDAQ ratio is too low, along with dozens of other reasons.
  • Consider taking profits out of the NASDAQ to buy silver. Don’t expect to hear this suggestion on Wall Street.
  • Wall Street benefits from higher NASDAQ prices. Wall Street benefits little from higher silver prices, with the exception of JPM which, per Ted Butler’s data, has accumulated a massive hoard of silver bullion. Expect Wall Street to promote buying stocks and discourage acquisition of silver, as usual.
  • Silver has been money and a store of value for thousands of years. The NASDAQ stocks have existed for a few decades. In the long term, trust silver. In the short term, the NASDAQ is over-valued and silver is inexpensive. Buy Silver!

Read Gold Moves Ahead of Silver

Read “House of Cards: Netflix is One of the Poster Children for Tech Bubble 2.0”

John Mauldin quoting Jim Mellon:

“And that makes it a bit like the markets – quiet at the moment, but the mayhem is just around the corner.

Assume the brace position.”

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

Gold Stocks: Key Tactics For Profit Seekers

Today’s videos and charts (double click to enlarge):

 franco

SF Signals Key Tactics & Video Analysis

SF Juniors Key Tactics & Video Analysis

SF60 Key Tactics & Video Analysis

SF Trader Time Key Tactics & Video Analysis

Thanks,

Morris

 

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Angela! Seriously? You want to go your own way?

Quotable 

“Our world cannot be understood by looking at people behaving within the system because of emergent phenomena.  Our markets display decisions that are not in the ergodic world of a gambler at the roulette table because our environment shifts with every interaction and experience—and particularly during crises, which is where it is most critical we find a way to predict or at least understand.  When we come to comprehend these limits, we approach a world filled with the giant unknown unknows: radical uncertainty.”

–Richard Bookstaber, The End of Theory

Commentary & Analysis

Angela!  Seriously? You want to go your own way

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Not satisfied with her maniacal immigration policy, which threatens the very existence of hard fought western cultural norms across Europe, German Chancellor Angela is now complaining about the US not being a viable partner for Germany or Europe. It’s doubtful she vetted these comments with her German industrialist buddies.  Why do I say that?  It’s because Germany has piggybacked on the US capital and trade regime (and NATO defense shield) to unprecedented proportion for the last fifty years….

…..read more HERE

 

Forget about Fake News… Let’s Talk about Fake Markets

The U.S. and other nations with “free market” economies got credit for defeating the communists in Russia. That is ironic, because it is now more clear than ever that western leadership actually shares the Soviet inclination for central planning, and they have been increasingly intervening in our markets since the collapse of the USSR.

Our officials make economic policy as if healthy markets must be planned and coerced, much like the politburo. Some of this policy is created and run in the open; the government bailouts, Quantitative Easing, and zero interest rate policy, for example.

Other programs are more secretive. Investors know the “Plunge Protection Team” exists to be the buyer in markets when all genuine buyers have left. But we can only guess as to what that crew actually does day to day.

What these self-appointed market masters do in complete darkness is likely even more controversial and intrusive. They remain violently opposed to audits and other attempts to impose accountability.

But, recently, some leaked documents have given a sense of what western officials do behind closed doors.

manipulation

They have actually been micromanaging markets since the 1970s.

Ronan Manly with Bullionstar wrote a terrific piece outlining the coordination among western central bankers pertaining specifically to the gold market after Nixon shut the “gold window” and launched the era of purely fiat currencies.

Wikileaks published a secret memo sent from London to the U.S. Treasury Department regarding the purpose behind the formation of the futures markets for gold.

Officials wanted to create a paper market which dwarfed the physical market and encouraged volatility; all with the aim of discouraging investors from holding bullion. To wit:

TO THE DEALERS’ EXPECTATIONS, WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A SIZABLE GOLD FUTURES MARKET. EACH OF THE DEALERS EXPRESSED THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURES MARKET WOULD BE OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION AND PHYSICAL TRADING WOULD BE MINISCULE BY COMPARISON. ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKET. IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING AND MOST LIKELY NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS.

The futures markets have served their nefarious purpose very well. Americans today view gold as volatile and risky, and almost no one owns any of the physical metal.

So it is with good reason that many investors look at today’s markets and sense the disconnect from reality. We now know what artificial forces produce record high stock prices relative to earnings.

We understand why precious metals investors have been driven to distraction wondering why prices never seem to reflect fundamentals. We can see why government regulators might intentionally turn a blind eye to clear evidence of bank traders rigging prices and cheating customers.

What are the consequences of all this central planning? It would be impossible to list the full effects. But is easy to identify some of the winners and losers that have been hand-picked by the bankers and bureaucrats who run this show.

Fake Markets

The banking and finance industry has more than doubled as a percent of GDP over the past 40 years. The government sector is also just about double the size it was in the 1950s in proportion to the economy. Meanwhile, the gold and silver markets spend years with prices held at, or below, the cost of production – a playground for crooked bullion bankers.

Western central planners aren’t going to be immune from the consequences of their actions.

People are waking up to just how fake today’s markets are. After all the public interventions never end, the leaked documents are generating new awareness, and many fundamental investors now sense the markets are little more than Potemkin villages – even if they don’t fully understand why.

These factors are eroding confidence, which means the ultimate consequence of all this central planning may not be so different from that which befell the USSR. The facade can be maintained no longer and therefore crumbles.

We may be one big shock in the financial markets away from a collapse of confidence. The jig will be up. And, we can hope, responsibility will be pinned where it belongs. The central planners here in the West should be remembered for being just as inept and destructive as those who once set Soviet quotas for the production of ball bearings.

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 “Dealer of the Year” in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals’ brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 1 – Gold

If we look at gold from the long-term perspective, it’s clear that it hasn’t really done much in the recent months – it’s trading in the $1,200 – $1,250 range, which is where it was in the first half of 2016, first half of 2015, for most of 2014 and in the second half of 2013. Overall, despite short-term and medium-term price swings, not much has happened in the past few years.

Since the bull market in gold started over 15 years ago, we haven’t seen such a long consolidation pattern – ever. Even the big 2008 plunge was followed by a rally almost immediately (from the long-term point of view, that is). The gold volatility index confirms the above having recently moved to new all-time lows (it’s been published for only several years, but still, that’s an important observation). Please take a look below for details (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

prpbtm

Click Chart for Larger Image

 

Now, what does the above (lack of) volatility mean? That the gold market is less and less appealing to traders and investors – at least to those, who don’t believe in the gold market’s strong long-term fundamentals. It’s less exciting and some might even describe it as boring. 

But, is this really the time when one should take it easy, stop checking what’s going on in the gold market and wait for gold’s rally? If one wants to miss the event that will likely be called the mother of all buying opportunities, then this is the way to go. Something tells us that you don’t really want to miss something like that.

The biggest mistake that people make in a street fight is that they don’t realize that they are in a fight. Paraphrasing the above and applying it to investments: the biggest mistake that investors make is that they don’t realize that the best time to buy is when nobody wants to and when a given asset is widely hated. It’s ironic that the same reason for which people don’t want to buy a given asset is the same reason that creates the great buying opportunity, but still, this is the case.

By the way, this phrase has its own trading indicator – the Bollinger Bands – when the bands narrow, it suggests that a big move is just around the corner. The space between the bands depends on the volatility. So, low volatility (the calm) suggest a looming big move (the storm). 

We don’t want to discuss why the final bottom in the precious metals sector is still ahead of us or to make a specific gold price prediction, as that’s not the point of this article and because that’s something that we discussed many times in our previous articles (however, the fact that gold was not widely hated when it moved below $1,100 in 2015 is one of the things that point to the above conclusion).

Gold’s Not Doing Much – Why Bother?

The purpose of this essay (the first one in the “Preparing for the Bottom” series) is to emphasize the need to stay alert when times are not turbulent, but boring. The calm before the storm is exactly how we can view the current “boring stage” of the long-term bull market in precious metals. This is precisely what happens before extremely profitable buying opportunities and it seems that now is exactly the wrong time to give up on this market. Instead, it’s the time to prepare for the punch that the precious metals market is likely to give all investors in the coming months and make sure that one has a plan to use it profitably instead of being hurt by it. Naturally, it all comes down to preparing NOW, before the volatility kicks in as it will be difficult to keep one’s head cool in that environment without being prepared in advance.

In the following articles, we will discuss the planning process and preparations in greater detail, but for now, the bottom line is this: be sure to stay alert and focused on the precious metals market even though it may not appear all that interesting at this time and prepare for the big moves that are likely to be seen later this year. This time investment should prove extremely worth your while.

Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

Sunshine Profits

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.