Gold & Precious Metals

Something Changed in the Silver Market in May: Here Are 3 Reasons Why

Something changed in the silver market in May as U.S. Silver Eagle sales have surged compared to the previous month.  This is quite interesting as precious metals sales and sentiment have declined in the West, especially in the United States, ever since Donald Trump was elected President.

Many precious metals investors thought that if Trump was elected, it would have been very positive for the gold and silver market.  Unfortunately, it seems as if the opposite was (is) the case.  Not only has demand for precious metals declined considerably in 2017 versus last year, so has sales of guns, ammo and survival food-supplies.  I gather many of those who follow the alternative media believe Trump is actually going to make America Great Again.  So, why protect oneself from a collapse?

This is a very bad assumption… as nothing has changed with Trump in the White House.  Furthermore, many analysts are saying that what Trump is doing could actually speed up the collapse of the U.S. economy and financial system.

Regardless, the fundamentals in the U.S. economy continue to disintegrate.  We are seeing economic bubble indicators reach or surpass what took place in 2007, before the bloodbath hit the U.S. Housing and Financial Markets.  However, there is one additional negative factor that wasn’t a problem in 2007 that is now a BLINKING RED LIGHT.

What is this new lousy fundamental?  It’s the U.S. and Global Oil Industry.  Back in 2007, most of the oil and gas companies were making decent cash flow and profits.  Unfortunately, the situation in the Oil Sector is orders of magnitude much worse than what is was in 2007.  Not only are the majority of oil and gas companies losing money, they have been also cutting their oil reserves.

This is extremely bad news for which very few Americans are aware.  Thus, we are now facing an extremely negative DOUBLE-EDGE SWORD of bubble economic indicators on top of a disintegrating oil industry.  Which means… the situation today is much worse than what took place back during the 2008 Global meltdown.

U.S. Silver Eagle Sales Surge In May Due To 3 Reasons

U.S. Silver Eagle sales surged 140% in May versus April… and we still have another week remaining in the month.  According to the recent update by the U.S. Mint, Silver Eagle sales reached 2,005,000 so far in May compared to 835,000 in April:

Silver-Eagle-Sales-APR-vs-MAY-2017

After seeing this spike in Silver Eagle demand, I called up a few of my contacts in the industry and asked if they could shed some light as to why sales jumped in May.  According to several sources, they stated that the huge increase in Silver Eagle sales were due to three reasons:

 

  1. There was an extremely large purchase by a single wholesaler in the Northeast.
  2. The small retail buyer came in a big way as premiums were lowered the most in seven years
  3. A group of respected technical analysts gave a buy signal for the Silver Market when silver was trading between $16-$16.25

These three reasons stated by my contacts, are what has likely driven demand for Silver Eagles to the highest level seen so far this year… if we exclude sales in January, which are always elevated as wholesalers are stocking up on the debut of the new coin release.

It seems as if a large buyer in the Northeast believes silver is a good deal at this price.  Furthermore, when the wholesalers lowered the premiums (lowest in seven years), there was an immediate surge in Silver Eagle buying via small retail investors which caused the premium to increase once again.  Also, the silver market underestimates the reaction when certain Technical Analysts put out a BUY SIGNAL.  Many individuals who follow or subscribe to these analysts, are big investors.  So, when they see a buy signal… they do so in a BIG WAY.

That being said, I would like to remind those reading this article (that might be new to the precious metals industry) please make sure you understand the difference between “PREMIUM” and “COMMISSION” when you decide to purchase precious metals.  There are a group of very widely advertised precious metals dealers that may have lowered their premium along with the other dealers, but still charge very high commissions for their products or services.

IMPORTANT NOTE:  The PREMIUM is what the dealer pays the wholesaler for the coin or bar.  The COMMISSION is what the dealer charges his client above the premium.  You need to ask what the commission you are being charged as many new investors are being taken advantage of… but don’t realize it until later, when it is too late.

While two million Silver Eagle sales so far in May are less than they were last year (4,498,500), this surge in demand suggests that the hype surrounding a Trump Presidency may be fading… and quickly.  If we take a look at Silver Eagle sales from FEB to MAY, we can clearly see that something has changed recently:

If the strong demand trend continues for the remainder of May, we could see Silver Eagle Sales reach 2.5-2.8 million.  Again, this is lower than what it was last year, but it is a sign that market is starting to SMELL A RAT.  And that RAT is a totally inflated STOCK, BOND & REAL ESTATE MARKET.

In addition, Silver Eagle sales are now out-performing Gold Eagle sales.  For example, in March when U.S. Silver Eagle sales were 1,615,000, Gold Eagle sales were 56,000 oz.  However, Gold Eagle sales in May are only 42,000 oz, while Silver Eagle sales are over 2 million.  Thus, the market is purchasing 48 times more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles currently.

Lastly, for those precious metals investors who are frustrated by the disappointing paper Gold and Silver price performance since 2012, the STOCK, BOND and REAL ESTATE markets have never been in such BUBBLE TERRITORY.   For some odd reason, many precious metals investors tend to overlook the $7 trillion in Central Bank assets purchases (that were made public… could be much higher) from 2011-2016, and the whopping $1 trillion purchased in just the first four months of 2017.

It seems as if many Americans are suffering from BRAIN DAMAGE as the MainStream Media continues to put out the most misinformation and propaganda in history.  This causes individuals to lose the ability to think CRITICALLY.  And with that will come a great deal of pain and misfortune when we finally see the collapse value of most STOCK, BOND and REAL ESTATE prices.

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

Mile Markers on the Road to Ruin

We know much is currently wrong with our financial world, as discussed in the James Rickards book “The Road to Ruin” and elsewhere.

 

  • The official U.S. government debt is nearly $20 trillion. Unfunded liabilities are 5 – 10 times larger. Debt has doubled every 8 – 9 years for decades – since the Federal Reserve was put in charge of devaluing the dollar. Debt will continue to grow, obviously out of control.
  • Millions of Americans are out of work, regardless of the official statistics.
  • Prices increase, some rapidly, regardless of the official statistics on consumer price inflation.
  • More government spending and debt are looming on the horizon. New and escalating wars are likely. Expect more deficits, debt, and inflation.
  • The U.S. stock market is selling at all-time highs, levitated by “easy money” and unsupported by fundamentals or breadth.

 

Option A: 

Trust the professionals who manage our digital and paper wealth which is backed only by debt, promises, fantasy, and confidence in the Federal Reserve and government. Believe official statistics and mainstream media that tell us things are peachy and not to worry.

Option B: 

Use gold and silver bullion (not the paper stuff) as financial insurance to protect the buying power of some or most of our net worth. Based on a century of experience, we can depend upon central banks and global governments to devalue currencies, create more debt, and propel gold and silver prices far higher.

Really? Those options seem extreme. Why? Read on!

STOCK MARKETS:

Consider John P. Hussman’s Exhaustion Gaps and the Fear of Missing Out.

w-deviant-investor-website-aa-current-work-in-pro

Read David Stockman: Market Crash to Occur

 

“Our country needs a good shutdown in September to fix mess!”

“There will be no bid for the stock once the panic sets in.”

BUBBLES:

Mike Maloney created an easily understood video which is 35 minutes long and explains the “everything bubble.” Watch it! Stocks, bonds, real estate and more are discussed.

Bill Holter discusses “The End of the Empire.” (31 minutes) Watch it!

PENSION PLANS:

Constantin Gurdgiev discusses “U.S. Public Pensions System:

“Or, put more cogently, the entire system is insolvent.”

“… in … California, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. we are already facing draconian levels of taxation, and falling real incomes of private sector workers.”

“In other words, there is not a snowball’s chance in hell these gaps can be funded from general taxation in the future.”

GOLD AND SILVER:

Read Steve WarrenfeltzSilver and Gold Pop!

Lior Gantz interviewed Gary Christenson (author) on his book “Buy Gold Save Gold! The $10 K Logic.” This youtube interview (62 minutes) discusses historical gold prices, on-going dollar devaluations, consumer price inflation, gold prices rising to $10,000 as the dollar is devalued, silver, and much more.

CONCLUSIONS:

 

  • It is possible we will enjoy a century of global peace, return to honest money, eliminate the overhanging debt, balance the budget, and – insert your favorite fantasy here!
  • Otherwise, bet on Option B – buy gold and silver bullion and store it outside the banking system. Prices will rise substantially as all fiat currencies are devalued further.

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

I discuss the ongoing devaluation of the dollar in my book: Buy Gold Save Gold! The $10 K Logic.” It is available at Amazon, or at gechristenson.com in paper and pdf for non-US readers.

How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue?

balloon-sunset-169676768.jpg

And what will happen when it ends?

Every now and again, it’s good to take stock of the Great Global Reflation that has been marching higher (with a few stumbles and scares) since early 2009, over eight years ago.  

Is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely?

Keynesianism Vs The Real World

Let’s start by reviewing the systemic contexts of the economy.

This Great Reflation is embedded in two basic contexts:

  1. The dominant socio-economic structures since around 1500 AD are profit-maximizing capital (“the market”) and nation-states (“the government”).
     
  2. The dominant economic theory for the past 80 years is Keynesianism, i.e. the notion that the state and central bank must aggressively manage private-sector consumption (demand) and lending via centrally planned and funded fiscal and monetary stimulus during downturns (recessions/depressions).

Simply put, the conventional view holds that there are two (and only two) solutions for whatever ails the economy: the market (profit-maximizing capital) or the government (nation-states and their central banks). Proponents of each blame all economic and social ills on the other one.

In the real world, the vast majority of Earth’s inhabitants operate in economies with both market and state-controlled dynamics in varying degrees.

The Keynesian world-view is doggedly simplistic.  The economy is based on aggregate demand for more goods and services.  People want more stuff and services, and as long as they have the means to buy more stuff and services, they will avidly do so (this urge is known as animal spirits).

The greatest single invention of all time in the Keynesian universe is credit, because credit enables people to borrow from their future earnings to consume more in the present. Credit thus expands aggregate demand for more goods and services, which is the whole purpose of existence in this world-view: buy more stuff.

But credit, aggregate demand for more stuff and animal spirits make for a volatile cocktail.  The euphoria of those making scads of profit lending money to those euphorically buying more stuff with credit leads to standards of financial prudence being loosened.  In effect, lenders and borrowers start seeing opportunities for profit and more consumption through the distorted lens of vodka goggles.

Lenders reckon that even marginal borrowers will earn more in the future and therefore are good credit risks, and borrowers reckon they’ll make more in the future (i.e. the house they just bought to flip will greatly increase their wealth), and so borrowing enormous sums is really an excellent idea—why not make more money/enjoy life more now?

But the real world isn’t actually changed by vodka goggles, and so marginal borrowers default on the loans they should never have been issued, and lenders start losing scads of money as the value of the collateral supporting the defaulted loans (used cars, swampland, McMansions, etc.) falls.

….continue reading HERE

For The First Time Ever, European Equities Yield More Than Junk Bonds

Last week, when looking at the the distortion and absurdity unleashed by the ECB’s asset purchase program upon European capital markets, we showed the unprecedented collapse in European junk bond yields as captured by the effective yield of the BofA/ML Euro High Yield Index, which is now trading just shy of all time lows, having dropped below 3% at the end of April, and printed at 2.79% on May 23, within bps of record lows…

high yield europe

… roughly 50 bps wider than where the the US 10Y is trading at this moment, and inside the 30Y US Treasury. Assuming a 1.9% European CPI (as of April), this means that the real rate of return on Europe’s junk yields is now 0.89%.  But we digress.

….continue reading HERE

Today’s Market – The Waiting Game

Summary

Stocks were frozen in place in premarket trade.

The U.S. dollar was likewise little changed.

We are playing a waiting game today until the 2:00 PM release of the Fed meeting minutes.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be published at 2:00 PM EDT. If the minutes show a Fed worried about the outlook for inflation and/or talking about possibly raising the trajectory of monetary policy tightening, well then stocks should take a hit. I think this is more likely than not given what we know already, though we may not learn of it until we see the Fed’s updated economic projections in mid-June.

….continue reading HERE

also: 

48181402-14954793953869407Volatility is at generational lows, and a new crop of products has made it easy to sell.

Time To Buy Volatility?