Economic Outlook

Canadian economy bounces back during summer reopenings

Canada’s economy returned to growth as consumers headed back to restaurants and entertainment venues, propelling spending on services.

Gross domestic product rose 0.7 per cent in August, Statistics Canada said in a flash estimate from Ottawa. That’s a reversal from July, which showed a 0.1 per cent contraction, according to the report.

Economists were predicting a 0.2 per cent drop in output for July, after early guidance indicating a weak start to the second half of the year. The agriculture and manufacturing sectors were among the contributors to the decline.

“Today’s GDP report provides a small tonic to the troubling results from a month ago,” Doug Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a report to investors. “The slightly smaller-than-expected setback in July and nice pop in August suggest that the economy managed to grind out some moderate growth in the summer quarter as a whole.”…read more.

New Zealand is considering launching its own digital currency as it sees opportunity for payments innovation

New Zealand’s central bank is looking at the potential of creating a digital currency, with officials in a report Thursday saying such a project could foster further innovation in the country’s payments system.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sought public feedback on papers focusing on the future of money which included a proposed digitized currency at a time when the use of cash is declining.

“A Central Bank Digital Currency would see the features and benefits of cash enjoyed in the digital world, working alongside cash and private money held in commercial bank accounts,” RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in a statement.

The use of cash dropped to 19% of household transactions in 2019 from 30% in 2007, it said. Meanwhile, people have increasingly turned to phone-based payment apps and digital wallets as well as other new and private technologies that make transactions more convenient. The RBNZ named Apple Pay as an example of a tool for transactions…read more.

Gold price shoots higher on US labor data disappointment

Gold prices advanced past the key $1,750 level on Thursday as investors sought haven after a new labor report pointed to an uneven recovery in the US jobs market.

Spot gold rose 1.7% to $1,757.38 per ounce by 11:55 a.m. EDT, its highest level in more than a week. US gold futures gained 2.1% to trade at $1,760.30 per ounce in New York.

Still, gold is on course for its biggest monthly loss since June, with precious metals pressured by the prospect of a pullback in stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve.

The latest labor data shows that applications for US state unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose for a third straight week, led by another surge in California. The dollar fell after the report, boosting bullion’s appeal for investors holding foreign currencies…read more.

Compound supply bug mistakenly rewarded users with $70M in tokens

Decentralized finance (DeFi) interest rate protocol Compound Finance has reported a token distribution bug within its newly implemented Proposal 062, which is over-rewarding suppliers into the tens of millions of dollars.

The upgrade was designed to “split COMP rewards distribution and bug fixes” and was fully verified without issues. However, within hours, the team noted “unusual activity,” stating that “Compound Labs and members of the community are investigating discrepancies in the COMP distribution.”

Despite the developments, the team has stressed that no funds either supplied or borrowed are at risk. Users of the protocol are reporting sizable windfalls, one claiming a deposit of 70 million COMP tokens into their account, equivalent to $20 million…read more.

Someone is betting that oil will soar to a record US$200 a barrel

Could the energy crunch get so bad that oil prices hit US$200 a barrel? One options trader thinks so.

Brent US$200 calls for December 2022, options contracts that would profit a buyer from a rally toward that level, traded 1,300 times on Wednesday. While the contracts don’t expire until October next year, they could profit from any sharp spike in prices this winter or next summer.

In a market where a single cargo of crude would currently fetch about US$160 million, the US$130,000 wager on oil reaching an all-time high is tiny. However, it reflects the fact that a growing number of options traders are betting that an energy crunch this winter may see prices rip higher.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit $80 for the first time in three years this week. Market watchers see demand exceeding supply to the tune of more than a million barrels a day and expect that switching from gas to oil because of high power prices could exacerbate that deficit. Bank of America Corp. this week underlined an earlier call that crude could top $100 a barrel at some point over the winter, if it is exceptionally cold…read more.