Currency
Gold has underperformed both in nominal and real terms. Last week it formed a bearish reversal in nominal terms and against foreign currencies. However, the good news for bulls is the US Dollar Index lost support at 100, due to the Trump administration’s tough talk against Germany (and the Euro). Couple that with no movement from the Fed and the greenback should continue its decline, thereby juicing the current rebound in Gold and especially gold stocks.
Take a look at the daily candle charts in the image below. We plot the US Dollar index, the Dollar/Yen cross and the 10-year Treasury yield. The US Dollar index has a potential measured downside target of 97 which happens to coincide with a confluence of moving average support. Dollar/Yen has not broken its corrective lows yet but if it does it would strengthen the odds the US Dollar index falls to 97. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has some more room to fall if its correction were to continue. In short, lower levels on all these charts is short-term bullish for precious metals.
The daily candle chart below shows GDXJ and GDX. The 200-day moving average has held GDXJ but it has a great chance to continue its rally up to $40-$41. GDX could reach $25-$26.
Take a look at a weekly chart and you will notice the significance of those aforementioned targets. The bar weekly charts of GDX and GDXJ are shown below. GDX $26 and GDXJ $41 mark the strongest resistance moving forward. Those levels have been tested 8 times in the past four years compared to the 2013 and 2016 highs which have been tested only 3 times. It’s unlikely the miners break resistance ($26 and $41) on the first try.
The miners continue to lead as they are on the cusp of higher highs in this recovery while Gold is further away from breaking its resistance at $1220. As we noted in our last missive, a pullback from resistance (the upside targets) is likely. The question though is will the pullback be something bullish or will it evolve into a multi-month correction? We have accumulated a number of juniors gradually but are maintaining some cash in advance of the next correction.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA
…related: Bitcoin Investing: How to Safely Own “Digital Gold”
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com – For professional guidance learn more about our premium service

I used to make fun of the FOMC rate hike “decision” language in the mainstream media because under the Obama administration and its economic policies overseen by the Fed’s monetarypolicy, there really was no decision, was there? It was ZIRP-eternity, interrupted by a lone and token rate hike in December 2015 (the Dec. 2016 hike does not count because the transition to a new administration and policy regime was already known; in effect, the Fed has already made its first hike under Trump).
According to the traders who make up the Fed Funds futures, there is no decision tomorrow, either. From CME Group, we have virtually no one predicting two successive rate hikes.
….related: 2017’s Real Milestone (Or Why Interest Rates Can Never Go Back To Normal)

Here’s a sobering thought: In the first month of 2017, we find ourselves closer to nuclear Armageddon than at any time in the last sixty years!
The Doomsday Clock, started by a group of scientists after the Manhattan Project back in 1947, is updated each January to show how close or how far away we are from the stroke of midnight, which means imminent nuclear holocaust.
Well, according to the latest report from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in January, the clock just moved to two-and-one-half minutes till midnight.
That’s closer to nuclear annihilation than any time since 1953 … immediately after the first H-bomb test by the Soviet Union.
This revelation is no surprise to me, because I’ve been warning you for some time now that the cycles of war are indeed ramping higher, and will continue to do so in the years ahead.
The war cycles are just one component in an intersection of multiple cycles I call the Edelson Wave, that are now converging into the most powerful tidal-wave of economic and political upheaval in more than eighty years.
All around me I see hard evidence that the war cycles are rising. Just look at the short-list of flash points for potential conflict around the world today …
- North Korea’s development of nukes and missiles to carry them…
- Hot war in Syria and rising tensions across the Middle East …
- Russia’s ambitions to restore the lost Soviet empire …
- China’s saber rattling in the South China Sea
The list goes on, and could easily include rising tensions between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states, not to mention threats by Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to intervene in the Syrian conflict.
Against this backdrop, we have a changing cast of world-leading characters with very strong personalities. Of course, this includes a new American president who enjoys talking tough and doesn’t seem hesitant to swing the big stick of U.S. military might.
And in the opposite corner is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who for all his friendly gestures toward Trump, has his own ambitious agenda for expanding Russia’s power.
Trump has promised to improve relations with Russia, but don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security.
Putin is dead set on restoring Russia’s former glory, by force if necessary. He has systematically flexed his military muscle to show his willingness to re-acquire former client states of the old Soviet Union. Remember Crimea? Remember Ukraine? Remember Georgia?
And he also has designs on the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Two of those Baltic nations share a border with Russia, and all three are now NATO members with NATO troops garrisoned on Russia’s front doorstep. This region is on the exact same warpath into Russia followed by Napoleon’s France, and later by Germany during two world wars, making it key strategic territory in Putin’s eyes.
Russia is also a major backer of the Assad regime in Syria, which sets him at odds with both Israel and Turkey, two other NATO members. Make no mistake, the stakes here could not be any higher, and here’s where the Doomsday Clock comes into play.
Reportedly, the Russians have already warned both Turkey and Israel that Putin is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to safeguard the more than 20,000 advisers and troops now operating in Syria.
Both Turkey and Israel are NATO members, meaning any conflict over Syria could quickly escalate into full-scale nuclear war.
And that’s just one of multiple major flashpoints.
President Trump has also promised to punish China for predatory trade practices and currency manipulation. Trump’s choice for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, commenting on tensions in the South China Sea, went on record saying: “We’re going to send China a clear signal that … island-building stops and access to those islands is not going to be allowed.”
Bottom line: Not since the darkest days of the Cold War has America faced the possibility of major conflicts on multiple fronts. Regrettably, the Doomsday Clock is ticking closer to midnight, just as my own studies of the war cycles forewarned.
Best wishes,
Larry
….also: Is The Public About To Get Torched In A Stock Market Plunge? The Answer Will Shock You
P.S. The Dow is going to soar as high as 45,000 … NOT in spite of the struggling world economy or gargantuan federal debts … NOT in spite of gridlock in Washington and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency … NOT in spite of the mess in Europe and Japan and the rising tide of political violence and terror worldwide … NOT in spite of the new U.S. president and his radical shift from the economic policies of the past eight years … The Dow Will go as high as 45,000 – NOT in spite of all these crises in the global economy … but BECAUSE of them! Read more here …

Endorsed by a large portion of the investing community now, bitcoin has emerged as a legitimate alternative to gold for hedging your portfolio. If you have never heard of bitcoin, use this article to find out if it’s a viable investment for your portfolio.
Here’s a quick quiz for readers: what was the top performing currency in 2016?
The answer – surprising to many – is the digital currency Bitcoin, which was created in 2009.
It more than doubled its value last year, rising 126%. Its nearest rival was the Brazilian real, which rose by a mere 21%.
Bitcoin – often called digital gold – is currently priced at about $920. It opened this year with a bang, surpassing the $1,000 level for the only the second time ever. It hit its all-time high in December 2013 at $1,156.06.
2016 was the second year in a row that the return of Bitcoin topped that of all other asset classes – stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
What is behind the rise to prominence of this cryptocurrency?
….also:
SWOT Analysis: The Dollar’s Future and What That Means for Gold

“I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do.” -– Leonardo da Vinci
Others seem to languish. They have the ‘right’ degrees, and seem to have all the right answers and have all the trappings of success, but they really do not seem to achieve much. It’s all talk, talk, talk! . However, look behind the veneer and it is all talk!
I believe the difference is action!
Talk is cheap, while action is priceless. The difference between these two types of people is that the talker is busy describing what he plans to do, while the action taker is busy actually doing it.
Nothing happens without action. Action is like the fuel in an engine. An engine can have lots of potential energy but can only be turned into kinetic energy and forward movement once fuel is added. Without fuel, it will sit there, looking pretty for a while but eventually, all the other cars will pass it and it will slowly rust away. Action is the fuel of everyday living.
We human beings are kinetic – we are literally built to move! Every fiber in our body, every sinew, every organ and every one of our senses is designed to make us a living, moving, action oriented being designed to achieve things. This is the natural state of affairs. Inaction goes against everything we are designed to do.
It may feel strange at first, particularly if you are overly concerned by the opinions of others. However, over time, becoming a person of action will align your mind and body, causing great energy and courage to spring forward, moving you to great heights of achievement and fulfillment.
Why is action so important?
Firstly, action is the only way anything gets done. Quite simply, nothing else can move the needle at get you closer to your goal than action. Action is the critical path item necessary to accomplish great goals.
Secondly, action helps overcome fear. You have probably heard the expression of being ‘frozen by fear’. It is very true if you have ever been in an emergency situation or under extreme pressure, there is a tendency to freeze up. Actions, however small, releases us from the fear, gets our mind and body moving, and moves us into a new and positive state.
Thirdly, action creates momentum. It literally gets the ball rolling. Have you ever noticed how one little action can open up the floodgates, it can be a catalyst for doing something great. A well-placed phone call starts a sales process going. The road to financial freedom can be signing up for one seminar. Weight loss program can start with a single walk around the block. Action gets things going.
Fourthly, action provides feedback and makes things better. We can theorize all day about the consequences of doing something, but we really don’t know until we try. Action is a feedback and self-correcting mechanism. For instance, say you wanted to buy your first home and study all the right books and look at lots of listings. If you want to get a very quick and clear sense of buying a home, then take the action of making an offer. You may not get the home, but you can learn from it and try again, this time better informed and more experienced. You learn 80% of what you need to know the first time you do something and then spend the rest of your life learning the other 20%
Finally. Action is empowering. It literally moves the power from someone or something else to you. When you are being acted upon, you are out of control and can become a victim. By taking action, however small, you move the power back to yourself and therefore, control your own destiny.
Action is the one way to truly express yourself and your gifts. If you don’t take action the world, family, friends and external circumstances will define you and you will not achieve your full human potential. Action, in a positive, enlightened and worthwhile form is the one way to show yourself, God and the world what you are truly made of, what you can accomplish and what you did during this short time we have on earth.
10 Steps on how to become a Relentless Action Taker:
- Make it a habit by taking daily, regular and consistent actions.
- For small decisions, don’t over analyze. Decide immediately and move on quickly.
- For large decisions, set a deadline, make an action plan and start immediately.
- Complete something each day that you have been putting off.
- When very fearful, take an action, particularly one requires physical movement to get started.
- Avoid telling people what you plan to do, impress with results not talk.
- If an action does not pan out, seek the learning from it, course correct and act again.
- Focus your actions on high value, productive activities, while avoiding time-consuming people and activities.
- Don’t confuse activity or being busy with productive action that moves you forward towards a worthwhile goal.
- Avoid analysis paralysis; gather sufficient information and then act
…also from Eamonn Percy:
